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Jul 4 • 33 tweets • 14 min read
July 3 Full update to thread on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 41.2(11.8) vs 10.8
Armor 45(13.7) vs 13.2
Tanks 46.4(24.7) vs 16.3
Artillery 17.4(5.3) vs 4.5
Aircraft 9.6(2.5) vs 17.4
Helicopters 16.9(5.1) vs 9.3
New This Week
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu claimed that there were 2000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in the battle for Lysychansk. As Russia has stopped including personnel claims in daily updates, this is the sole Russian personnel claim update this week
There were two conflicting statements by UK about estimated Russian losses:
Army Chief of the General Staff said 33,000 casualties, implying a lower number of KIA


Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said 25,000 Russians had been killed
There were further POW exchanges (144), but no updates on total current POWs

Ukrainian advisor Arestovych said that:
"Total [POWs] is known, but not disclosed. Objective is to return everyone. Perspective of this is a delicate topic, to not harm any progress. Military intelligence agency is working on exchange..."
"Kadyrovytes, pilots and special services agents are being exchanged well, they have good influence, nobody in 🇷🇺 cares about simple soldiers. 🇺🇦 gives preference to women and wounded"

Projekt performed calculations showing Russian claims exceeding 100% of Ukrainian equipment, which regular readers have seen reported here for weeks

There was an informative Congressional Research Service report on Ukrainian military performance

Concept
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum
Examination of open source intelligence such as photos of equipment losses can further narrow the range or provide insight into which claims are closest to confirmable numbers. There are MANY limits to how much value this range has. This is not a predictive tool.
If you fail to make reference to open source evidence, you wind up with analysis like this
Interpretation
Some sources update and data was collected at July 3, 11 pm EST. Not an expert. OSINT source relies on photo evidence and is an undercount. Local reporting is believed to report a smaller % of UKR losses.
Perform your own evaluation of the reliability of any information source you come across. I have tried to use reliable sources, but they do represent a range of reliability. Note that I used my own judgment in choosing among the personnel loss estimates
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intellige…
These numbers do not reflect motivation, leadership, terrain, weather, support of allies. These equipment numbers also do not reflect levels of crew training, equipment readiness or maintenance quality. All of which will have significant impact beyond what these numbers can show.
Major Sources 01/
Ukrainian claims of Russian losses
Major Sources 2/
Russian claims of Ukrainian losses
rutube.ru/video/90f29e7a…
Daily updates May 6 – May 30
youtube.com/c/MinistryofDe…
Daily updates prior to May 6 and after May 30
rutube.ru/channel/246754…
Major Sources 3/
OSINT equipment loss observations
@oryxspioenkop
RU losses: oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
UKR losses: oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

Heavy equipment deliveries to Ukraine
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…
Oryx updated on the backlog


and it was announced that Jakub Janovsky was taking over responsibility for the count
Major Sources 4/
Ukrainian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022
Major Sources 5/
Russian force estimates from The Military Balance 2022. The stated Russian total force numbers from minusrus com are very similar to values from The Military Balance 2022 within 5%
Updates
Updates on the general force repositioning and equipment resupply efforts were getting to be too big to include in one thread. Please read them here. They form the backdrop within which personnel losses are considered
July 3 Update
Attempts to correct for known Errors
There are many challenges in counting losses of equipment. Here is an explanation of some of those challenges, along with attempts to correct for those errors.
Russia: Personnel
Personnel is the most complicated loss figure. It required its own thread to discuss. Please read it if you want to see where the numbers below come from
Personnel 1

Personnel 2

Personnel 3
Ratio of KIA to WIA
Two expert observers believe that a ratio of KIA:wounded of 3.5:1 would be reasonable based on comparable data. I often have it recommended to me that 2:1 would be more appropriate, but I will continue to use 3:1
Russia: Personnel
UKR claim 144,880 (35,970; 107,910; 1000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
144,880/257,775 = 56.2% cmtd
144,880/900,000 = 16.1% total

My evaluation is 26,300 Russian KIA

OS 106,200 (26,300; x3=78,900; 1000)
106,200/257,775 = 41.2% cmtd
106,200/900,000 = 11.8% total
Ukraine: Personnel
Russia last made a loss claim in its daily briefing of April 16, claiming 23,367 Ukrainian KIA. While they have not provided a total claim since, they provided between daily updates that refer to Ukrainian losses. I added these up to 48,837 KIA as of June 26
Ukraine: Personnel
The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to no longer makes daily claims of Ukrainian losses. Therefore it will not be possible to track going forward. Shoigu’s claim that 2,000 Ukrainians were killed in battle at Lysychansk adds up to 48,837+2000=50,837 KIA
Ukraine: Personnel
RU claim
50,837 KIA and three times that number wounded
208,948 (50,837; 152,511; 5,600)(KIA; wounded; POW)
208,948/550,000 = 38%

My evaluation is 13,500 Ukrainian KIA

OS 59,600 (13,500; x3=40,500; 5,600) (KIA; wounded; POW)
59,600/550,000 = 10.8%
Past threads
March 19

March 25

April 3

April 10

April 17

April 24

May 1

May 8
May 15

May 22

May 29

June 5

June 12

June 19

June 26
I have been collecting facts from past threads and adding them at the end as notes. Please let me know if this adds value. Some have become outdated and I plan to review and consolidate them into a PDF as an easier to digest format. I can add them here if requested

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More from @HelloMrBond

Michael Bond Profile picture
Jul 4
Thread🧵consolidating updates from June 27 – July 3 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together over the last month:
June 26

June 20

June 12

June 5

May 29

May 22
Combat Strength
Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently 105 BTGs in Ukraine
Read 73 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Jun 28
Russia: Personnel
Personnel is the most complicated loss figure. It required its own thread to discuss. Please read it if you want to see where the numbers below come from
Personnel 1

Personnel 2

Personnel 3
Ratio of KIA to WIA
Two expert observers believe that a ratio of KIA:wounded of 3.5:1 would be reasonable based on comparable data. I often have it recommended to me that 2:1 would be more appropriate, but I will continue to use 3:1
Russia: Personnel
UKR claim 140,400 (34,850; 104,550; 1000) (KIA; wounded; POW)
140,400/254,775 = 55.1% cmtd
140,400/900,000 = 15.6% total

My evaluation is 25,300 Russian KIA

OS 102,200 (25,300; x3=75,900; 1000)
102,200/254,775 = 40.1% cmtd
102,200/900,000 = 11.4% total
Read 14 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Jun 28
June 26 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 40.1(11.4) vs 10.2
Armor 43.6(13.1) vs 13
Tanks 45.1(23.7) vs 16.3
Artillery 16.5(5) vs 4.3
Aircraft 9.6(2.5) vs 16.8
Helicopters 16.6(5) vs 9.3
Read 26 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Jun 27
Thread🧵consolidating updates from June 21 – June 26 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
June 20

June 12

June 5

May 29

May 22

May 15
May 8

May 1

April 24

April 17

April 10
Read 56 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Jun 25
Lukashenko argues that Belarus must deploy Russian nuclear weapons because of NATO

Putin just said 🇷🇺 will provide 🇧🇾 nuclear Iskanders
interfax.ru/russia/847887

Lukashenko then said Lithuanian import restriction to Kaliningrad is like a declaration of war
ria.ru/20220625/kalin… ImageImage
Belarusian military expansion
Read 4 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Jun 22
June 19 Full update to thread🧵on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 38.6(10.7) vs 9.4
Armor 43.5(13) vs 13
Tanks 45(23.6) vs 16.1
Artillery 16.4(5) vs 4.2
Aircraft 9.1(2.4) vs 16.8
Helicopters 16.6(5) vs 9.3
Read 58 tweets

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