Sean McKnight Profile picture
Jul 5, 2022 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Ugh... takes like these from otherwise smart people are nothing new, but they're obviously gonna become a lot more convincing for the next decade.

Short version: The American Empire is not only not in decline, its no where near its peak. (1/11)
The fundamentals: The contiguous territory of the United States is so absurdly advantageous its basically impossible for it to not be the wealthiest and most powerful nation on the planet. RIP @brain4breakfast (2/11)
Now, B4B was quite wrong about US politics, but here's the thing: when your country naturally generates caloric surpluses and can ship goods this cheaply with no risk of invasion, the political system can be anything and you'd still be the wealthiest nation on the planet. (3/11)
The US could be a Stalinist or Fascist totalitarian nightmare, and we'd still have the biggest economy on the planet.

The risk with someone like Trump holding the reins of power isn't that the Empire would fall, its that a madman would have virtually unchecked power. (4/10)
Now, as for climate change, for the United States (and everyone) it would be very bad... for a few years.

Climate change would initially damage the intercoastal waterway, and the mouth of the Mississippi, but even a worst case scenario will take generations to destroy it. (5/11)
Eventually climate change will reach an initial "oh shit!" moment where things are bad, but no where near as bad as they're going to be, and that's when the US tends to really move its weight around. (6/11)
This country could FIX climate change if it wanted to. thousand mile long Sea walls, afforestation/reforestation, melt-water reservoirs, whatever it takes, we could deal with it before its too late. (7/11)
How? Well from 1941 to about 1946 we spent about 43% of our GDP on defense. We only spend about 3% today. If we spent the 43% we did for about 5 years during and just after WWII, that would be about 9 trillion-USD per year. The #GreenNewDeal only costs about $10 trillion. (8/11) Image
This country could execute 4.5 Green New Deals, and you know what would almost certainly happen? The US economy would get BIGGER as a result. And this is assuming we only spend OUR money. The US wasn't the center of global finance in 1941... (9/11)
Today the entire planet depends on American financial infrastructure. EVERY international transaction is denominated in Dollars, even between member states of the EU, and when we shut a country out of the dollar, you get post-invasion Russia. (10/11)
The whole damn planet is utterly addicted to the American consumer market. Its in the interest of national survival that these countries make sure it stays functioning.

To bring down an Empire like this would take a lot more than the problems we have today. (11/11)

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More from @YNot_1989

Apr 11, 2023
Skipping over the problematic historiography, I think Friedman is making a mistake a lot of people are making right now: he's assuming the collapse/crisis is immanent.

I think we have another 5 years and we're barely at the beginning of how bad things can get. (1/)
Simply put, most of us alive today were born in the Long Peace, and Americans in particular have a bad habit of failing to appreciate just how bad things can get. We are at most in the middle of a new Sectional Crisis. (2/)
Oversimplifying, the Sectional Crisis (1848-1861) was a period or American history following the end of the Mexican American war, and really the end of the Missouri Compromise with the Compromise of 1850. (3/)
Read 11 tweets
Feb 1, 2023
1: Some industry buddies and I have been taking another crack at the Drake equation based on recent discoveries in astronomy and came away with an eerie conclusion:

There was less than a 50% chance for Earth to have developed an industrial civilization at this point (1) #space
2: For the unfamiliar, here's Carl Sagan running the Drake Equation in 1977.
3: Since Frank Drake came up with this thought experiment in 1961 we've learned quite a bit about the development of sentient life on our own planet, and more about exoplanets than can be summarized in a tweet.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 31, 2023
Pitch: Bobby has been living in New York working on his standup routine and writing for SNL. He's coming home because he's got a Netflix special coming out. The series is very much an indictment of small town America, and Texas in particular.
Peggy is still a realtor, now the primary breadwinner, and full blown Q anon.

Hank lost his pension after Buck got busted by the IRS. He's working at the Megalomart again.

Bobby doesn't really talk to his mom that much anymore, but weirdly he and Hank are on good terms.
Bill turned into a vegan health nut after a heart attack. He's now the neighborhood ladies man after Boomhauer retired to Costa Rica.

Kahn is now a permanent addition to the alley, and Hank's best friend (though both men will never admit it).
Read 8 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
#WhatIf Gregory Watson pushed to pass the Congressional Apportionment Amendment instead of the Congressional Compensation Amendment? (1) #alternatehistory en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressi…
In May of 1992, after a decade of spite-fueled lobbying, the final state to ratify the Congressional Apportionment Amendment... and all hell breaks loose.

Like in OTL, many Congressmen are livid that a new amendment has been imposed upon them, and try to block certification. (2)
On May 18, 1992, the Archivist of the United States, Don W. Wilson, certifies that the amendment's ratification had been completed, despite more legitimate calls that the wording of the amendment is unworkable. (3)
Read 19 tweets
Dec 12, 2022
The National Ignition Facility uses Inertial Confinement to achieve nuclear fusion. What that means is that you shoot a 192 laser beams (2.1 megajoules combined) at a thimble full of Hydrogen-3 (Tritium) and Hydrogen-2 (Deuterium.) (1) Image
...In a fraction of a second these gasses become almost 100x denser than lead which initiates fusion, essentially creating an artificial star.

This test, lasted 3.14 femto-seconds. Or 3.14 quadrillionths of a second. In that time it produced 2.5 megajoules of energy. (2)
Now, there are some challenges that still need to be overcome. Firstly, the NIF isn't a powerplant, there's no way for them to actually harness the energy of a fusion reaction. That's partly why the reaction was so brief, the heat had nowhere to go. (3)
Read 5 tweets
Dec 11, 2022
Since Artemis I has splashed down, I figured I'd give a no BS assessment from am aerospace industry insider (me) on what comes next for Cislunar exploration.

Either late this year or early next year, Astrobotic will attempt a landing on the moon under a NASA contract... (1)
A second landing was planned to deliver NASA's VIPER rover to the Lunar South Pole in November next year, but that mission required the XL-1 lander built by Masten, who went bankrupt this year. Even if Masten's assets are acquired, a completed XL-1 is unlikely in 2023. (2)
2023 will also not see the DearMoon mission fly. I really don't know anyone who takes that mid-2023 launch date seriously. Odds are Starship will complete an uncrewed orbital test flight sometime next year, but we're 2 years away from putting test pilots on board. (3)
Read 15 tweets

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