Attending an academic conference soon?
Going by reports and polls on Twitter, you probably have a 10-20% chance of getting #COVID19 there.
Here's a small thread with some evidence and some suggestions. 1/
Going by reports and polls on Twitter, you probably have a 10-20% chance of getting #COVID19 there.
Here's a small thread with some evidence and some suggestions. 1/
2/ ACM #SIGGRAPH, a major conference and trade fair with up to 20,000 attendees, will take place in Vancouver next month, right in time for the peak of a COVID wave.
That means that probably 2000 people will return home infected with COVID.
That means that probably 2000 people will return home infected with COVID.
https://twitter.com/CasualEffects/status/1543735845554896897
3/ Of these 2000 people with COVID, a few hundred people will be knocked out for a few days or weeks.
About 1% might suffer from *debilitating* #LongCOVID effects - i.e. 20 attendees will suffer from a major illness for weeks or months or more.
nature.com/articles/s4146…
About 1% might suffer from *debilitating* #LongCOVID effects - i.e. 20 attendees will suffer from a major illness for weeks or months or more.
nature.com/articles/s4146…
4/ With an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.1 % for Omicron, (hard to estimate, but probably in the right ballpark), someone might even die because they attended the conference.
nature.com/articles/s4157…
nature.com/articles/s4157…
5/ To put that into context, a conference where multiple people fell down the stairs and suffered broken bones because the organizers didn't care enough about safety, would probably mean legal trouble for the organizers.
But luckily, ACM and #SIGGRAPH have taken care of this:
But luckily, ACM and #SIGGRAPH have taken care of this:
6/ But how many people will really be infected at SIGGRAPH? Let's look at some anecdotal data.
Here's A lower bound of at least 5.5% of all attendees for ACM #CHI2022 in New Orleans (masks mandatory at conference venue!):
Here's A lower bound of at least 5.5% of all attendees for ACM #CHI2022 in New Orleans (masks mandatory at conference venue!):
https://twitter.com/hciprof/status/1526237838676828160
7/ In some research groups, 50% of #CHI2022 attendees got COVID.
https://twitter.com/hciprof/status/1526238498067566593
https://twitter.com/Kostic86/status/1526280450989338624
8/ Here's an article about COVID infections at #CHI2022, calling it a 'superspreader event'.
insidehighered.com/news/2022/05/1…
insidehighered.com/news/2022/05/1…
9/ Here's a lower bound of at least 5% of all attendees for #ICA22 in Paris:
https://twitter.com/LSawyerED/status/1533471318783442944
10/ A Twitter poll where 19% of respondents who recently attended any medical conference caught COVID:
https://twitter.com/trentconsultant/status/1538511929169399808
11/ A medical conference with 20% of attendees infected:
https://twitter.com/Ffogboy/status/1540671955015286786
12/ About 30-50% of attendees infected at #OHBM2022 (poll with 1300 responses representing at least 20% of all attendees)
https://twitter.com/eknahm/status/1541153642459324416
13/ An article about medical conferences as super-spreading events:
"Among the 11 programs that responded, the number of attendees ranged from five to more than 50, and Covid-19 case rates ranged from 18% to 67%."
statnews.com/2022/06/14/the…
"Among the 11 programs that responded, the number of attendees ranged from five to more than 50, and Covid-19 case rates ranged from 18% to 67%."
statnews.com/2022/06/14/the…
14/ Further reports of many hundreds infections at a single conference, such as:
https://twitter.com/Simonetheboss2/status/1539077700924628993
15/ And many more anecdotes from dozens of people who caught COVID at a conference:
twitter.com/search?q=confe…
twitter.com/search?q=confe…
16/ Altogether, these individual, semi-reliable reports make it reasonably certain that attending an in-person conference at the moment comes with a risk of 10-20% (maybe more) of getting COVID-19.
17/ So, what are the alternatives? Obviously, the safest option for any individual is not to attend conferences at all. However, especially for early-career researchers, this is a hard choice to make:
https://twitter.com/emtseng/status/1523679716599021572
18/ If conference organizers want to make in-person conferences more COVID-safe - and thus more inclusive, an absolutely essential measure would be requiring masks indoors.
As far as I know, nobody who masked up at all times during a conference got COVID.
As far as I know, nobody who masked up at all times during a conference got COVID.
https://twitter.com/juliekientz/status/1524049777385635841
19/ That leaves official and private social events where people eat, drink, talk, and infect each other.
Requiring masks at such events is quite impossible. Completely skipping social events is not desirable for most attendees, either.
Requiring masks at such events is quite impossible. Completely skipping social events is not desirable for most attendees, either.
20/ Instead, conference organizers could host social events outdoors or in extremely well-ventilated spaces (i.e. 500 ppm CO2) and avoid crowds at buffets, etc.
How about an outdoor pool reception?
How about an outdoor pool reception?
https://twitter.com/RaphaelWimmer/status/1395897297930698765
21/ Conference organizers could also highlight nice outdoor venues close to the conference center so that participants have a choice of safe options for having a beer in the evening.
22/ Also, there is certainly a positive relationship between conference size/place and risk of infection. The more people you meet and the farther you travel, the more opportunities for getting COVID. Smaller, regional conferences might be a good idea, also re. #ClimateEmergency
23/ That's it from me for now. I'll probably keep adding new reports and thoughts to this thread over time.
24/ Collecting reliable stats about COVID infections at conferences might be a good idea, too. Maybe at least add a question to the post-conference survey.
https://twitter.com/syardi/status/1525141621901127681
26/ CO2 levels at conferences are too damn high! More fresh air, less risk of infection (and less cognitive impairment).
https://twitter.com/eteq/status/1543381655313842177
27/ Less than 1% of attendees infected at #AAS240 (mandatory masking, outdoor receptions)
https://twitter.com/StartsWithABang/status/1542278328454787072
28/ Some helpful advice (tl;dr: wear a mask at all times)
https://twitter.com/ericbkennedy/status/1544319858304753675
29/ The initial tweet is slightly incorrect. Of course, your *individual* risk to catch COVID-19 is not 10%-20% - especially if you are wearing a mask all the time. However, as an organizer of a maskless conference, you should be prepared for 1/5 of attendees getting ill.
30/ Oh, with #CVPR2022 there was yet another superspreader event at the same conference venue as #CHI2022. 20%-40% of respondents got COVID.
https://twitter.com/MattNiessner/status/1541129931152826369
31/ If only someone had warned #CVPR2022 organizers that not requiring masks is a bad idea.
Oh.
Oh.
https://twitter.com/jbhuang0604/status/1524200385258348551
https://twitter.com/RaphaelWimmer/status/1524273027776720897
32/ It seems that having social gatherings outdoors but not requiring masks indoors isn't a viable strategy for preventing infections.
https://twitter.com/ctocevents/status/1539694097052717058
34/ Are smaller conferences inherently safer? Maybe not that much at the current COVID prevalence - the number of people you have close contact with does not go up linearly with increasing conference size.
Here's another 10-20% infections from #OzHA2022
Here's another 10-20% infections from #OzHA2022
https://twitter.com/MichelleArrow1/status/1545284674259279872
35/ A thread by @margaveldhuizen about the personal and financial risks smaller groups have to take by attending unsafe conferences (#FENS2022).
https://twitter.com/margaveldhuizen/status/1546977331998244866
36/ For context, here's the opening event of #FENS2022
https://twitter.com/brembs/status/1545812098378342401
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