Tweet

Greg FOSS - Free Open... 🇨🇦

Jul 12 • 3 tweets • 3 min read

Some fun #math and #btc (thread)

5yr CDS on the USA is 20bps (20k/yr to insure 10MM of debt against default)

Total federal debt for USA is $30T funded plus $160T unfunded

20yr CDS equiv is 80bps so:

$190T debt x .8%p/a = $1.52T premium

#btc mkt cap of $375B

/2

/2 #btc can be considered default insurance on a basket of Fiats,

#btc has a value of LESS than one third the total premium for the USA,

thus you are getting CHEAP protection on the USA AND protection on ALL other Fiats for FREE...w/ no counterparty risk nor time decay.

Wow.

@VailshireCap

sources: @VailshireCap @JeffBooth @LawrenceLepard

usdebtclock.org

worldgovernmentbonds.com/sovereign-cds/

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @FossGregfoss

Greg FOSS - Free Open... 🇨🇦

@FossGregfoss

Apr 22

Every reason you would buy the UST30YR right now is twice the reason you should buy #btc. A thread…

The Fed will invoke QE infinity and YCC shielding bonds…

Yes but currency debasement is thus accelerated…therefore #btc over the UST30YR

We are heading to a recession and #bonds always perform in recessions…

Yes but the next recession could be the one that gives up the ghost and QE causes credit contagion and collapse…therefore #btc over UST30YR

Read 5 tweets

Greg FOSS - Free Open... 🇨🇦

@FossGregfoss

Mar 22

BINGO square -- the middle star -- (deserves a thread),

#BTC is a long vol asset. It is insurance.

But Foss, the market (still) treats it as risk off...

My response... /2

Markets take time to adjust their thinking, but once it happens there is no turning back. For example:

"In 1959, 30 years after the great Crash, an event took place that made absolutely no sense in light of history. Up to the late 1950s, investors had received a

/3

...higher income from owning stocks than from owning bonds. Every time the yields got close, the dividend yield on common stocks moved back up over the bond yield. That seemed precisely as it should be. After all, stocks are riskier than bonds.... /4

Read 5 tweets

Greg FOSS - Free Open... 🇨🇦

@FossGregfoss

Nov 12, 2021

What #btc means to me (in 150 words)

I have been a professional risk trader for over thirty years. Sitting in a risk chair is real life. It is not some cushy academic chair where theories are espoused. It is managing the savings and pensions of clients, friends and family… /2

— in real time, good markets and bad — and your livelihood and sanity are pressured daily.

In a risk chair you are always looking for cheap insurance. An edge that will protect you and clients in the event of a risk event. I believe bitcoin to be the best insurance product… /3

I have ever studied. It is essentially credit insurance on a basket of Fiat currencies. It is a hedge to the inevitable unraveling of Fiat systems globally.

Bitcoin provides protection against central bank shenanigans. It allows for a more comfortable risk chair…. /4

Read 4 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Share this page!

Greg FOSS - Free Open... 🇨🇦

People who liked this thread also liked...

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @FossGregfoss

Greg FOSS - Free Open... 🇨🇦

Greg FOSS - Free Open... 🇨🇦

Greg FOSS - Free Open... 🇨🇦

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?