Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 – Jul 15 to Jul 21 – "Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 – Western Europe
- Rise/increase/plateau in #COVID19 epid. activ: UK (R-eff=1.16); BE=1.16; CH=1.14; FR=1.11; IT=1.10/ DK=1.07; SE=1.09; NL=1.06; AU=1.06/ FIN=1.01; IRL=1.01; DE=1.01; LUX=0.98;SP=0.96;
- (Slow) landing: (ICL=0.94); PT;
- Medium to high mortality.

3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surge in #COVID19 epid activ: Pol (R-eff=1.37); Rom=1.33; Alb=1.25; Serb=1.28; Estn=1.36; Hung=1.27; Bulg=1.20;
- Rise in Cz=1.19; Latv=1.18; Lith=1.18; Greece=1.11; Croat=1.15; Slovk=1.13;Slovn=1.18;
- Very low to high mortality

4/9 – Africa
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Tunisia=1.31, Equatorial Guinea=1.38, very low to low mortality
- Green everywhere else, but lot of underreporting

5/9 – Middle-East
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Iran=1.43;
- Cyprus=1.16, close to the region, is rising too;
- Plateau or slow landing in Kuwait=1.06;Lebanon=1.02; Iraq=0.95; Qatar=0.99; UAE=0.94; Israel=0.92;
- No to high mortality
- Reported as safe elsewhere

6/9 – Asia & Pacific
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Japan (R-eff=1.37); SK=1.43; Fiji=1.23, very low mort.
- Rise/increase: Malaysia=1.10; [NZ=1.13/ Australia=1.06], very low [high/med] mort.
- Landing: Taiwan=0.89, high mort.

7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Strict lockdowns which are now back again in several cities of China (R-eff=1.13);
- Surge in Mongolia=1.30;
- Emerging #BA275 in India=1.05;
- Worrying (lack of) news on #COVID19 epidemic activity from North Korea
- Apparently safe elsewhere

8/9 – North America
- Canada (R-eff=1.17) is rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity, high mort. 87.6% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces.
- USA=1.04 is plateauing, medium mort. 79.3% >1 dose. Red everywhere, but orange in 2 states.

9/9 – Latin America
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid. activ.: Bolivia (R-eff=1.33); Paraguay =1.32; Peru=1.34/ Mexico=1.17; Argentina=1.10;
- Increase/Plateau/slowly landing: Guyana=1.09/ Panama=1.05; Colombia=1.03; Brazil=0.96; Belize=0.96/Chile=0.93;
- Very low - medium mort.

10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0