Thread by @jonworth

Let’s have a look into the 🔮 and try to work out what happens from here in the #ToryLeadershipContest

It’s not quite a #BrexitDiagram but my means of thinking is similar

Badenoch will drop out next. It’s not that she’s necessarily the worst performing candidate in the running, but her support overlaps too much with others. Her votes will go to Truss & Mordaunt

Tugendhat will then be the next to go. However much he might have swerved to the right in recent weeks, and be the least tainted by Johnson, he’s ultimately too sensible for the selectorate of MPs. Most of his support can go to Sunak

And then it gets interesting

I can’t see from here how Sunak doesn’t get into the final two. The question is who he faces

He’d sooner face Truss (whose weaknesses are better known that Mordaunt’s)

But is Sunak going to be secure enough to lend some votes to Truss so as to keep Mordaunt out of the final two? It’d be a dangerous game…

Despite the Opinium poll of Tory members, I reckon Sunak could still beat Mordaunt in the members’ poll - it’s a bit like May vs Leadsom. The danger the Mordaunt camp has a sort of meltdown is possible

That Sunak has some similar meltdown is not impossible, but I think he’s probably less likely to crack than Mordaunt or Truss (the latter can make really weird errors, like the stuff at her launch)

So if it’s Sunak vs Truss, Sunak wins. If it’s Sunak vs Mordaunt, it’ll be Mordaunt starting as favourite but it’ll narrow. 50-50 who’d win that

So for me Sunak is the narrow favourite overall from here

Please note: this isn’t what I want to happen. It’s what I think will happen

/ends