Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 – Jul 16 to Jul 22 – "Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!
Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 – Western Europe
- Rise/increase/plateau in #COVID19 epid. activ: UK (R-eff=1.18); BE=1.15; CH=1.14/ SE=1.09; AU=1.06; NL=1.05; IT=1.05/ DE=1.02; FIN=1.01; IRL=1.01; DK=0.96; LUX=0.95;
- Landing in ICL; PT; SP;
- No update from France.
- Medium to high mortality.

3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surge in #COVID19 epid activ: Pol (R-eff=1.37); Rom=1.33; Alb=1.28; Serb=1.27; Estn=1.34; Hung=1.26; Bulg=1.20;Lith=1.20;
- Rise in Cz=1.17; Latv=1.19; Greece=1.11; Croat=1.14; Slovk=1.11;Slovn=1.17;
- Very low to high mortality

4/9 – Africa
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Tunisia=1.30, Equatorial Guinea=1.44, very low to low mortality
- Green everywhere else, but lot of underreporting

5/9 – Middle-East
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Iran=1.47;
- Cyprus=1.05, close to the region, is plateauing at high levels;
- Increase/plateau/landing in Kuwait=1.06;Lebanon=1.07/ Qatar=1.01/ UAE=0.94; Iraq=0.94; Israel=0.90;
- Reported as safe elsewhere

6/9 – Asia & Pacific
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Japan (R-eff=1.37); SK=1.42; Fiji=1.22, very low mort.
- Rise/increase: Malaysia=1.12; [NZ=1.12/ Australia=1.08], very low [high/med] mort.
- Landing in Taiwan, high mort.

7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Most cities across China order on #COVID19 lockdowns (R-eff=1.13);
- Surge in Mongolia=1.29;
- Emerging #BA275 in India=1.04;
- Worrying (lack of) news from North Korea
- Apparently safe elsewhere

8/9 – North America
- Canada (R-eff=1.21) is surging in #COVID19 epidemic activity, high mortality. 87.6% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces.
- USA=1.05 is increasing, medium mort. 79.3% >1 dose. Red everywhere, but orange in 2 states.

9/9 – Latin America
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid. activ.: Bolivia (R-eff=1.32); Paraguay =1.36; Peru=1.34/ Mexico=1.14; Argentina=1.10;
- Increase/Plateau/slowly landing: Guyana=1.07/ Panama=1.05; Colombia=1.03; Brazil=0.99; Belize=0.96/Chile=0.92;
- Very low - medium mort.

10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0