Doug Lewin Profile picture
Jul 18 13 tweets 6 min read
Another week, more record-setting electric demand on the #ERCOT grid:

All-time record (Tuesday): 78.4GW
Projections for today: 79.5
Tomorrow: 80.8
Wednesday: 81.7 (higher than ERCOT's most extreme scenario)

#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter 1/thread
It’s possible we’ll get more conservation alerts. If so, hopefully, @ERCOT_ISO and @PUCTX will get information out faster and be clearer about what resources are available. The public deserves more and better information.
#txlege #txenergy 2/
Last week, on Sunday, PUCT and ERCOT said there were 12GW of "dispatchable” offline. It's not clear what that represents or why it's offline. On Wednesday, that number was up to 13GW. Note they lump all dispatchable into one category while separating out wind and solar. 3/ Image
We have a very good idea of how wind & solar will perform this week (projections are high btw) but no idea how much gas & coal will be online. There’s no spreadsheet, no dashboard looking a week ahead (or even one day ahead) for thermal like there is for wind & solar. 4/
Tuesday, at peak, we’ll likely have >20GW of wind & solar. Wednesday ~18GW. How much gas & coal will be offline? We don’t know. Thermal generator rep says “things are going to break," but things are already breaking. Things, in fact, have already broken. dallasnews.com/news/2022/07/1…
Last week, from Sunday night, when ERCOT falsely blamed wind for electricity shortfalls, to Wednesday, when they called for more conservation, an additional 2.5GW of gas & coal plants went offline. What happened? Which ones? No one at the PUCT or ERCOT is talking.
#txlege 6/
ERCOT presented to the PUCT at its regular meeting on Thursday—there was no mention of which plants were offline, and no one asked. Think about that: no questions asked about supposedly reliable dispatchable energy resources that apparently can't be dispatched.
#txenergy 7/
Last night, ERCOT data showed thermal outages were 100% higher than one week ago & 100% higher than what Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) projections. ERCOT & PUCT must be clearer about problems w/ gas & coal—and how state policies are causing things to break. 8/
They should start by defining “dispatchable” and breaking it out into categories. How did coal perform relative to gas? Where were most of the outages? Is nuclear dispatchable? Nuclear had a great week, but no grid operator thinks of nuclear as dispatchable. It’s on or off. 9/
Unfortunately, PUCT and ERCOT would rather blame wind and solar—even though they are very predictable resources, consistent with planning expectations and past performance, and examples of Texas energy leadership of which Texans are proud (we're #1 in wind and #2 in solar). 10/
If wind will be lower than average one day, then dispatchable resources should be ready. If wind is higher than average, use those windows to let aging, breaking-down thermal plants have some much-needed maintenance.
#energytwitter #txlege 11/
It’s a system. Renewables provide cheap, clean, predictable power—vital as Texans try to pay extremely high energy bills. Gas and coal have none of those attributes. They are expensive and polluting resources with little predictability.
#energytwitter #txenergy 12/
Attacking renewables, without addressing the root cause problems (high demand from lack of investment in #energyefficiency, gas & coal outages, climate change fueled heat waves, etc.) will only worsen the reliability and affordability crises faced by Texans.
#txlege 13/end

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More from @douglewinenergy

Jul 20
Demand stayed just below 80GW today. Large customer #demandresponse in the form of a rate structure called 4CP (more in this thread) helped to increase reliability and lower costs. Large customers are paid for their reductions. Small customers are not. 1/🧵
#txlege #txenergy Image
We won't have a reliable and affordable grid without demand flexibility. It’s possible—maybe—to white knuckle it through a summer with aging power plants at an extra cost of billions of dollars each year. But there’s a better and cheaper way...
#energytwitter 2/
To have a grid that is reliable and a market that is affordable, regulators need to figure out how to incorporate demand flexibility into market design.

*Pay people* to automatically (no action required) shift use to times when power is cheap and plentiful to reduce peaks. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Jul 11
The PUCT and ERCOT have neglected some of the best solutions for the grid and customers—such as energy efficiency and demand response—and implemented very expensive (and apparently ineffective) ones. Now they're attempting to blame wind for their continued problems.
#txlege 1/🧵
We could be in trouble today bc of: (1) the unreliability of thermal power plants & (2) massive demand, which is a direct result of systematic underinvestment in things like energy efficiency & demand response. Of all the states w/EE goals, we're dead last.
#txenergy 2/
ERCOT's Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy report assumes—and presumably plans for—wind as low as 2,874MW or even 259MW. Today at peak, ERCOT expects 5.7GW of wind generation, 2x the expected low wind levels and 20x the extreme low levels.
#energytwitter 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 10
#ERCOT update: New weekend record broken yesterday w/ 77.4GW; expected to be ~77.5GW today. Very low chance of outages today, somewhat higher (though still low) tmrw when 80.5GW expected.

At 9AM, 6.5GW of gas/coal is unavailable, up from 4.9GW yesterday AM.
#txlege #txenergy 1/
Yesterday, 500MW additional thermal (gas/coal) went offline as the day went on and overnight another 1000MW dropped. Hopefully some of those will come back on as the day goes on.

Remember, if there are rolling outages, they are likely to be short duration, nothing like Uri. 2/
If you want to help, pre-cool your home or business in the AM tmrw. In a well functioning market, if you choose to help, you'd be paid to do this. This function would be automatic & you'd keep the thermostat where you want it in the PM, just a little cooler in the AM. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Jun 30
Discussion this morning on local sources of power (aka distributed energy resources or DERs) at the @PUCTX. Cmsr McAdams has engaged w/ stakeholders on a pilot. He proposes a 3 step plan. First step set up an informal workshop on Monday July 11
#txlege #energytwitter 1/
In the 7/11 workshops, McAdams wants to consider key goals and objectives to be achieved in the pilot. Will consider scale, duration, participation, and reliability. Depending on feedback from stakeholders, Cmsrs McAdams and Glotfelty would summarize consensus in a memo (cont) 2/
... which will then be considered in open meeting July 14. Workshop is by invitaiton only. If members of the public or stakeholders want to participate they can reach out to Cmsr. McAdams staff leading the project.
#txenergy 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jun 22
The House State Affairs Committee is underway. @PUCTX Chair Peter Lake has made opening comment & now the questions have begun. Phil King is asking about a major market change called the Load Serving Entity Obligation which would add more costs. (cont.)
#energytwitter #txlege
King wants to know if #txlege will be able to weigh in before the LSEO is implemented. The design of the LSEO is being done by E3 to "independently" analyze the proposal even though they proposed it for a big generator (NRG) last year.
houstonchronicle.com/business/energ…
@PhilKingTX expresses concerns about potential conflicts of interest from E3. He's right to be concerned.

@toddahunter says higher bills are coming and reminds the PUC Chair that the P in PUC stands for Public. Wants transparency for the public. cc: @DaveLieber
#txlege
Read 44 tweets
Jun 20
At ERCOT Board meeting tmrw & at a Texas House Cmte Wed, #ERCOT’s Independent Market Monitor (IMM) will present. The IMM quantified the cost of recent @PUCTX policy changes in her ERCOT presentation & there are some shocking numbers. 1/🧵
#txlege #txenergy
renewableenergyworld.com/solar/the-stat…
Here’s the presentation she’ll make tomorrow. The kicker is in this slide: The “conservative operating posture” of the @PUCTX & @ERCOT_ISO have cost consumers a minimum of $670m over only five months. (The range is $670-$845m)
#txlege #energytwitter 2/
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
The news here is the RUC costs, which market participants & consumer advocates have been sounding the alarm about for months. In my @REWorld article I said it was hard to tell exactly what RUCs cost, but now we know: $460m ytd thru 5/31/22. That’s more than I would've guessed. 3/
Read 13 tweets

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