Thread by @Kat_Lawlor

#Russia’s looming annexation of occupied #Ukraine:🧵

The White House confirmed yesterday that Russia is planning to annex occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts as early as this fall, citing newly declassified US intelligence.

This US intelligence tracks with my and @Mason_R_Clark's @TheStudyofWar forecast from May, and with months of excellent reporting from others.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1525201103348015105?s=20&t=rN3eMfCDEmI16oiahyhmHw

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov explicitly referenced the Kremlin’s expanding territorial objectives today. Annexation, with or without falsified referenda, is part of the Kremlin's endgame for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1549711941299470336?s=20&t=LmF3P8BR8vIs7iDXcCwYOg

Annexation could end this phase of the war on unacceptable terms for Ukraine & for humanity. Every day that occupied #Ukraine remains under #Russian control is another day of horrific human rights abuses, targeted degradation of Ukrainian governance, & “filtration” of civilians.

If Putin annexes occupied territory and the conflict settles in along new front lines, the Kremlin could reconstitute its forces and renew Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in the coming years, this time from a position of greater strength and territorial advantage.

The political and ethical consequences of a longstanding Russian occupation of southeastern #Ukraine would be devastating to the long-term viability of the Ukrainian state. Ukraine & its partners have a narrow window of opportunity to launch a counteroffensive to prevent it.

If Russia annexes occupied Ukraine, Putin may use nuclear threats in an attempt to deter a Ukrainian counteroffensive to liberate occupied areas. Russian nuclear doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons to defend against even a conventional attack on “Russian” territory.

Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities.

And yet, previous Russian hints at Moscow’s willingness to use nuclear weapons have proven hollow. Ukraine may be undeterred. Ukraine could also launch a counteroffensive before annexation is announced.

@TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats team will continue our daily coverage of #Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against #Ukraine and offers daily updates on the conditions in Russian-occupied areas and on Russian condition-setting for annexation of Ukrainian lands.

You can read our full annexation report from May 13 here: isw.pub/RusUkrAnnexati…
You can read our daily military updates here: understandingwar.org
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