formerly @TheStudyOfWar. I write about modern warfare, disinfo, & the Russian occupation of #Ukraine. All opinions my own & not that of any employer
Oct 20, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Yesterday, #Putin declared martial law in parts of Russian-occupied #Ukraine and created a legal framework to move closer to martial law in parts of #Russia (detailed below). I and @TheStudyofWar team examined his presidential decrees. A thread: 1/
#Putin's moves to full-scale martial law are disordered—a competent military should implement economic mobilization, secure transportation, and coordinate territorial defense before or as mobilization begins, not as follow-on reserve mobilization nears its completion. 2/
The White House confirmed yesterday that Russia is planning to annex occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts as early as this fall, citing newly declassified US intelligence.
This US intelligence tracks with my and @Mason_R_Clark's @TheStudyofWar forecast from May, and with months of excellent reporting from others.