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Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
@JasonSalemi
Jul 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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I'm positive I have COVID.

[let's say that differently]

I'm positive, I have COVID.

So a quick 🧵 with the new @CDCgov county measures. Unsurprisingly, not great news.

61% of the country lives in a high-level county, based on the hospitalization risk measure.

1/ Stacked bar chart of CDC risk levels in the country. The per
Here's your updated map.

I'm used to saying whoa...Florida.

This week I said whoa...California.

2/ This is a county map of the United States, with the color of
You can really see the rapid rise in the % of people living in high-risk areas in places like California, Illinois, Kentucky, West Virginia...and even a resurgence in NY and NJ. Other places have remained high.

3/ Stacked bar charts for each state showing community risk lev
Compared to last week, 13% of people lived in counties that worsened in their level, compared to 6% of people who lived in a county that improved.

81% of people lived in a county whose risk level did not change.

4/ This is a county map of the United States and counties are c
10 states now have 80% or more of their population living in high-risk counties, led by California (99%), Florida (98%), Hawaii (95%), New Jersey (91%), and Illinois (88%).

5/ This is a weekly heat map for each state showing trends in t
More later when the transmission levels are updated for today.

I'll also update my dashboard then.

Thanks for the well-wishes. Fever of 100.9 at its highest, cough, fatigue, and typical man-complaining. Toddler is great, wife improving! #Blessed

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com

6/🏁

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More from @JasonSalemi

Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Sep 26, 2023
Brief COVID update

When speaking with NPR last week, I said the plateauing of hospitalizations for 3 weeks made me feel like a downturn was coming.

In FL, the data are suggestive of improvements in the # of people being hospitalized w/ COVID.

1/ Image
The state-specific trends in the COVID hospital census since June 1 also suggest we are seeing a recent decrease in FL (dk purple), the US as a whole (black), and a number of states.

Yes, FL still has among the highest rates, but we also have one of the oldest populations.

2/ Image
If we indeed see a prolonged decrease in COVID hospitalization census, many of the largest states, who have been below previous pandemic years, will start their decrease right as they approach (but do not exceed) 2022 rates.

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
May 29, 2023
Sorry for the delay everyone, a lot going on personally. But I have modified my dashboard to accommodate the CDC reporting changes.

My site focuses on:
1) Hospitalization-based county risk levels
2) Detailed hosp trends
3) Deaths

with links out for wastewater, variants, vax

1/
The "Risk Indicators" page is similar to the older page, but the data upon which indicators are based has changed. There are no longer "risk levels" and "transmission levels", rather levels based exclusively on "confirmed" COVID hospital admission rates over the prior 7 days.

2/ ImageImageImageImage
The "Hospitalizations" page has not changed much. Still starts out with a Florida-centric look and then gives a lot of state- and age-specific census and admission numbers, rates, and rankings.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Feb 24, 2023
It's been a while since I've done a #COVID update.

These are national weekly @CDCgov "community levels" based primarily on hospitalization rates.

This past week has been the "best" since April of last year with <1% of the population living in a high-level county.

1/ Image
Of course, this comes with the following caveats according to the CDC, with likely underestimation of levels in Hawaii and Mississippi, and overestimation in several counties in Georgia and Arizona.

2/ Image
Transmission levels are likely to be grossly underreported, but as we look at them over time, are showing modest improvement (LEFT).

This is in agreement with the regional wastewater monitoring data, which also shows improvements over the last 6 weeks (RIGHT).

3/ ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Dec 2, 2022
1/ Updated my #COVID19 dashboard - wanted to do a quick thread on some clearly emerging trends.

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com
2/ Below are adult inpatient hospital census rates for each state since May 1, 2022. Only "confirmed" (as opposed to suspected) COVID hospitalizations are included.

The orange and red coloring suggests recent increases over the past week. Image
3/ But for context, below are the inpatient census stats for adults throughout the pandemic - for most states, we remain well below the worst parts of the pandemic (not that that should be the bar we are trying to avoid). Image
Read 11 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Oct 16, 2022
1/ I've continued to see graphics like the one below served as evidence that COVID vaccines do not work.

Why? Because the NUMBER of COVID-19 deaths among vax people is nearly the same (or even more than) among unvaccinated people.

Quick 11-tweet thread on why this is misleading
2/ I'm going to keep this SIMPLE. This is NOT about infection-acquired immunity vs. vax-acquired immunity. This is just about counts vs. rates.

Assume that vax efficacy is 90% in people 65+.

Monthly COVID mortality rates:
- not vaccinated (20 per 100k)
- vaccinated (2 per 100k)
3/ Assume 3 different vax realities among seniors in the US, and assume pop of 50 million.

Vax rates of 5%, 50%, and 95%.

In the figure, under each scenario, I show the vax vs. non-vax distribution of:
1. the population
2. COVID deaths
Read 12 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022
@cmzimmer1803 - a few thoughts

1/ We absolutely should be concerned with the changing proportions of variants that are ESTIMATED to be circulating in recent weeks.

Due to their characteristics and increasing make-up of new cases, the pose a threat.
2/ Clearly, part of our genomic surveillance efforts are to have TIMELY information when more concerning variants are increasing in relative prevalence. In this case, it appears we lost some time (I was wondering why those variants were not yet showing up).
3/ BUT, I don't tend to jump to an accusation of something nefarious.

The beginning of the footnote states that variants circulating <1% are grouped into "other". Image
Read 6 tweets

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