1. KS text is now THE #constitution of #Tunisia. The electoral body, #ISIE, just announce the referendum results: a 27% turnout and 94% of them approving the proposed text. A few takeaways:
2. Does this mean that almost 75% of Tunisians oppose(d) this constitution? Does it change the fact that this constitution is the culmination of an authoritarian, unilaterally, and unconstitutionally conducted process? In my humble view, the response to both is NO.
3. While 27% turnout is very low from a comparative perspective, note that the last Algerian referendum, in 2020, saw only a 23,84% turnout. A major French constitutional reform enjoying the consensus of almost all political parties registered only 30% turnout in 2000.
4. Discussing numbers might be of relative help, especially absent turnout thresholds, and could be misleading in this context: assuming that the 75% of Tunisians who did explicitly vote ‘’YES’’ are ‘against’ might be an overstatement.
4. It is yet to be proven that those 75% do not include ppl who r against the entire political system incl its opposition; those who are simply indifferent. It does also not factor in the context of the referendum…summer, heat, holidays etc.
6. The argument is also not necessary in order to prove that this referendum was a deeply polarizing exercise, nor that important segments of the Tunisian society do not recognize its very legality/constitutionality or legitimacy.
7. The fact is that Tunisia’s democratic constitution has now been replaced by an authoritarian text. Despite domestic resistance. KS will for now gradually consolidate his grip on power & benefit from rather favorable international & regional dynamics giving up on Arab democracy
8. Implementation will prove the mistake of those who, in their overall assessment of the draft constitution, noted as ‘positive’ per se the maintaining of some rights provided for already in the 2014 constitution. Huge mistake:
9. Fundamental rights r guaranteed only if a polit syst w separation of powers, independent judiciary, checks and balances is in place. A comparison btw some fundamental rights in e.g. late USSR const and any established western democracy text could be surprising in this regard.
10. This referendum was a reminder that referenda in polarized societies can only deepen divisions. A divided society is no place to write and adopt a constitution. It should rather engage in dialogue and introspection.
11. This entire process also revealed the inadequacy of int'l mechanisms against unconstitutional changes of gov and their implementation. Cf. AU, or even relevant instruments in EU or US foreign policy.
12. Already during the drafting of the 2014 constitution, it was highlighted time and again, that failure to deliver on social and economic fronts might ruin the very constitutional and democratic order.
13. The subsequent polit system made the country ungovernable and seemed to confirm populist discourses thus paving the way for an authoritarian drift. Similar discourses are now on the rise in other Arab countries’ political debates, the closest example being Libya.
14. Today's referendum is a strong symbol of post-Arab Spring democratic fatigue but the chapter might not be over: how is the -weak- upcoming parliament going to look like? How to rebuild social peace after this episode? What national dialogue can be launched and on what terms?
@threadreaderapp unroll
correcting a typo: KS text is now THE #constitution of #Tunisia. The electoral body, #ISIE, just announced the referendum results: a 27% turnout and 94% of them approving the proposed text. A few takeaways:
Erratum: Discussing numbers might be of relative help, especially absent turnout thresholds, and could be misleading in this context: assuming that the 75% of Tunisians who did NOT explicitly vote ‘’YES’’ are ‘against’ might be an overstatement.
Latest update from the ISIE: Turnout was of 30% bit.ly/3S4X30w
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