Thread by @JanR210

#Russian ops/ORBAT update (1/n)
- 14 Spetsnaz Bde to set up 32 recce-sabotage groups
- 8-9 new BTGs from Estern MD to #Crimea
- 5 BTGs from 76 Airborne Div augmented with tanks
- VDV force may increase from 8,5k to 11k soldiers
- 19 MRDiv aug with T-90 realist.online/politika/armij…

(2/n)
- Nikolayevsk/Krivorog area: air surveillance increased: 45 UAV flights per day (up from 20/day)
- new (16) 203mm 2S7 arty near Radensk
- field airstrips for Ka-52/Mi-24 helos prepared near Chaplinka
- unloaded 18 2S4 heavy mortars in Crimea

(3/n)
- likely 🇷🇺 operation towards Nikolaev-Odesa-Transnistria or Krivorog-Zaporozhe-Dnipro
-#Kherson/Donbas: predominately D/LNR & Wagner forces
- only the forces near Izyum are from the 🇷🇺 Army (30 BTGs)
- reserves from #Belgorod move to the south to the coast

(4/n)
- #Kharkiv key reserve is 144 MRDiv. It remains on alert ready to start the offensive

Summary:
- 🇷🇺capable of only one major operation (likely in the south)
- other directions only as tactical objectives

cc @STRATPOINTS_EU @TheStudyofWar @konrad_muzyka

https://twitter.com/janr210/status/1552974937085939714