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Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
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Aug 4 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
1) A couple of concerning effects of Europe's reducing river levels on the #UkraineWar, perhaps the most direct of which is the effects of the declining levels of the Danube on Ukraine's ability to use that river to bypass the Russian #blockade of the country's Black Sea ports.
2) See this excellent continuing #thread🧵for details of efforts to expand use of the Danube - amongst other things - to bypass Russia's #blockade, which are necessarily ongoing, despite the agreement to open safe corridors from Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
3) It is worth bearing in mind that Ukraine (quite probably Russia too) is known to have been using rivers & other inland waterways for logistical supply to its forces, which will almost certainly be affected by this, though the degree can only be guessed.
4) Rather more indirectly, declining river levels are also exacerbating Europe's #UkraineWar related energy crisis, including causing problems transporting coal imports from the great port of Rotterdam into the heart of the continent, including Germany
5) Likewise, supplies of diesel into Switzerland are at risk owing to the difficulty of getting Rhine barge traffic beyond the chokepoint of Kaub.
6) An issue that may itself be exacerbated by a German rush for oil in an attempt to compensate for uncertain gas supplies.
7) While in France, river levels are even threatening electricity production from the country's nuclear power stations on the Rhône and Garonne rivers.
8) Norway is looking to implement measures to curb its power exports as the country faces a shortage in hydropower supplies, with southern reservoir levels at their seasonal lowest since 1996.
Norway exported 377 GWh to the UK & 502 GWh to Germany in July. montelnews.com/news/1340275/n…

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More from @navalhistorian

Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
Aug 2
The South China Sea is currently a rather busy patch of ocean, with China's Global Times reporting the PLAN aircraft carriers Liaoning & Shandong have sailed from their respective ports, while the @USNavy's @Gipper_76 & USS America & USS Tripoli are also in the vicinity. #Taiwan Map of the South China Sea ...Chinese aircraft carrier Li...Chinese aircraft carrier Sh...US Navy aircraft carrier US...
Additional notes via @samlagrone of @USNINews: the official @USNavy line is "'normal operations' but one defense official said the assets - already in the neighborhood - were hanging out to see what was gonna happen", while USS America is currently still in port at Sasebo, Japan. US Navy big deck amphibious...
Also worth noting that Chinese forces are reportedly out & about on amphibious exercises too (via @AlexLuck9)
Read 5 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
Jul 28
1) A little - slightly belated - #thread🧵on this great catch by @NavyLookout of the British Government's (rather low-key) announcement on 11th July that @RFAArgus "represents the optimum solution to support a forward-deployed Littoral Response Group", & some of its implications.
2) That she was under consideration for the role was announced to @CommonsDefence on 6th July, however, that it is actually to be @RFAArgus is still something of a surprise, given one of the Bay Class has been publicly earmarked for it since March 2021.
3) Nonethless, as surprises go, it is, in many respects, a pleasant & welcome one. Until recently @RFAArgus had been scheduled to decommission without replacement in 2024, depriving the @RoyalNavy of potentially vital capabilities for Littoral Response.
Read 20 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
Jul 27
BBC News piece by @Matt_Murphy15 on the work to establish safe passages for convoys of grain ships out of Odesa, Chornomorsk & Pivdennyi, following the Turkey & @UN brokered deal, signed on 23rd July, to relieve at least this part of Russia's #blockade bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Work seemingly progresses apace, with the Russian delegation, under Rear Admiral Eduard Luik, arriving in Istanbul yesterday to join the new, joint grain co-ordination centre, which has apparently already opened.
Whilst Ukrainian authorities have released a NAVTEX with a start date of today, outlining the extent of the safe corridors & that the convoys are to be led from the ports by single, Ukrainian-flagged tugs, to an area of inspection.
Read 17 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
Jul 3
1) It looks like the Russians have been trying to finally clear the wreck of their amphibious landing ship Saratov, that was sunk alongside at Berdyansk at the end of March. #UkraineWar
2) It's worth noting the upper deck & superstructure are largely gone. These were still very much in evidence after the fire/explosion caused by the Tochka-U strike, but at least one of the dockside cranes appears to have been reactivated for the purpose of demolishing the wreck.
3) This work suggests that the explosion in the area noted by @CovertShores & others on 28th June was potentially either demolition work, or - far more likely - either an accidental, or controlled explosion of unspent ammunition recovered from the wreck.
Read 5 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
Jul 3
Interesting. It does look like the Russians placed at least one, long-range artillery piece on Snake Island - a Tornado-G MLRS with a 90km range, presumably to try counter-battery fire to forestall what actually happened, though one suspects issues of aim without things like the
aerially assisted direction the Ukrainians had from their TB2s, limited ammunition supply, sheer disparity in firepower against that available (& suppliable) ashore were insurmountable. Inability to find cover would almost certainly have been an issue too, though it is worth...
noting that - remarkably - that Tornado-G did seem to manage to survive the Ukrainian onslaught, right up until it was at its most vulnerable - packed up & ready to be evacuated from the pier.
Read 7 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
May 30
1) Useful #new article by @NavyLookout on the state of play with the @RFAHeadquarters, going through issues such as crewing difficulties, @RFAFortVictoria & the lack of the Fleet Solid Support replacement, the mothballing of the Wave Class & consequent strain on the Tide Class.
2) There does, however, seem to be a rather concerning issue highlighted in the passage on the Bay Class amphibious landing ships, relating to the date at which the conversion work to @RFALymeBay for her to operate at the heart of Littoral Response Group (South) will be completed
3) Littoral Response Group (South), centred on what is now known to be @RFALymeBay & @40commando, to be based at Duqm, Oman, is *the* big ticket, permanently deployed naval presence in Britain's Indo-Pacific tilt & is supposed to deploy in 2023 according to the Integrated Review.
Read 7 tweets

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