Chinese military's Eastern Command announces military drills around Taiwan will continue indefinitely (for now).
One possible explanation is "faux Escalate to Deescalate".
i.e. Feign strength, to provide cover for gradual 'redirection' away from the theater, i.e. deescalate. /1
One possible explanation is "faux Escalate to Deescalate".
i.e. Feign strength, to provide cover for gradual 'redirection' away from the theater, i.e. deescalate. /1
China's military drills has potentially generated 2 effects that Beijing dislikes:
1. 'Broken window effect':
Other countries are considering more high level visits to Taiwan -- in a show of solidarity, e.g. Lithuania. See:
1. 'Broken window effect':
Other countries are considering more high level visits to Taiwan -- in a show of solidarity, e.g. Lithuania. See:
https://twitter.com/wentisung/status/1556205129002786816
2. 'Catfish effect':
Even multilateral vehicles like @ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting - which had largely refrained from critical commentaries on China-Taiwan relations - was spurred into issuing a statement of concern on 8/3, and further 'internationalizes' Taiwan issue. /3
Even multilateral vehicles like @ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting - which had largely refrained from critical commentaries on China-Taiwan relations - was spurred into issuing a statement of concern on 8/3, and further 'internationalizes' Taiwan issue. /3
China is therefore finding a way to project strength, consolidate gains, while it deescalates. Considerations:
a. If China continues mil activates around Taiwan Strait at its current intensity, it will disrupt international commerce, and negatively affect bystander nations. /4
a. If China continues mil activates around Taiwan Strait at its current intensity, it will disrupt international commerce, and negatively affect bystander nations. /4
Further turning international opinion against China will not serve BJ leadership well.
b. But domestic nationalism sentiment may take more than 72-hours of military drill to satiate, not giving them the outlet won't serve BJ leaders either. /5
b. But domestic nationalism sentiment may take more than 72-hours of military drill to satiate, not giving them the outlet won't serve BJ leaders either. /5
c. China has already been criticized internationally for this round of escalatory military drills, so may as well milk it more?
Why not 1) #extend this round, rather than 2) end it, and then #restart another round later and receive another round of international censure? /6
Why not 1) #extend this round, rather than 2) end it, and then #restart another round later and receive another round of international censure? /6
Path of least resistance to satisfy all 3 needs:
China may as well extend this round of military drills #indefinitely, for #unspecified duration, in unspecified geographic theaters, for purposes seemingly related to Taiwan. /7
China may as well extend this round of military drills #indefinitely, for #unspecified duration, in unspecified geographic theaters, for purposes seemingly related to Taiwan. /7
It's strategic ambiguity all the way done, and gets China flexibility.
It won't receive one more round of int. criticism. It will satisfy nationalism sentiment, and may not actually have to do much of anything, 'coz it hasn't really promised to do anything. /8
It won't receive one more round of int. criticism. It will satisfy nationalism sentiment, and may not actually have to do much of anything, 'coz it hasn't really promised to do anything. /8
It's free "#deterrence without #commitment".
'coz all China says is "we are not done yet, folks".
Sounds intimidating, but commits China to nothing. Even if China does really little follow-through militarily, it won't hurt Chinese credibility either. /9
'coz all China says is "we are not done yet, folks".
Sounds intimidating, but commits China to nothing. Even if China does really little follow-through militarily, it won't hurt Chinese credibility either. /9
Some may remember a not so distant era in US foreign policy, when leaders use strong but vague threat on others to exert "maximum pressure".
But when asked about follow-thru, they often maintain a flexible off-ramp -- saying little more than "I will keep you in suspense". /end
But when asked about follow-thru, they often maintain a flexible off-ramp -- saying little more than "I will keep you in suspense". /end
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