Jay Varma Profile picture
Aug 9 5 tweets 2 min read
Concur with discussion below. Adds to weight of evidence that direct inoculation via receptive intercourse (anal, oral) likely primary route of infection for many patients

Important implications ⬇️

/1
Helps explain why >10K cases globally during 2022 outbreak remain tightly connected to gay men & their sexual networks: transmission via anal/oral receptive intercourse far more efficient than other routes.

/2
Short incubation period and likelihood of direct inoculation supports why pre-exposure #monkeypox vaccination for groups at highest risk likely much more effective at preventing disease than post-exposure vaccination.

/3
While less sensitive, sampling of OP will still have value for widespread screening (similar to what we do for GC in gay/bi/MSM). Important to study if saliva superior to OP as specimen type.

/4
The high % of patients with #HIV remains a notable finding across many different countries - and seems consistent as testing has expanded, so less likely to be ascertainment bias. Is HIV an independent risk factor for #monkeypox infection?

/end

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More from @DrJayVarma

Aug 9
Having now read the one study on intra-dermal #monkeypox vax & spoken with a few folks more knowledgeable than me about immunology, some thoughts below on @FDAgov @CDCgov approach

/1
Level of neutralizing antibodies from intra-dermal should be equivalent to subcutaneous. This switch should both expand vax supply & increase protection in those most at risk - critical goals right now.

/2
We still do not know for sure:
-how much protection comes from antibody response vs. other forms of immunity
-whether the total immune response varies by subcutaneous or intra-dermal

/3
Read 14 tweets
Aug 9
I’m really surprised by this & don’t agree. Unlike a drug, vax are given to healthy people w/expectation they’ll be protected from future disease. We know little about efficacy of even standard dosing. Why not at least measure immune response in volunteers before using?

/1
Ethics of this seem weirdly out of synch with Tpoxx, which is used to treat sick people who have no other options. Yet @US_FDA insists animal model clinical trial insufficient. Yet animal model for vaccine is acceptable when given to healthy people?

/2
Yes, recognize you have a bio marker for vax that you don’t have with drug. But how strong js evidence base for that correlate of protection against this #monkeypox clade & this route of exposure (primarily through receptive & insertive intercourse)?

/3
Read 4 tweets
Aug 1
A lot of people do not understand how worrisome the #polio case in NY.

Based on what's been discussed publicly:

-the person with paralytic polio got infected in NY

-the source case in NY has not been found

/1
-for one person to get paralytic polio, it means that 100s were infected, b/c only ~1 in 200 develop paralysis

-since case was detected in early June & weeks have gone on before vax catch-up campaign, likely means 1000s of infections cumulatively to date

/2
-detection in wastewater further supports the fact that many have been infected & are shedding polio virus

-(injectable) polio vax works extremely well at preventing severe disease, but it does not block people from being infected & shedding virus in their feces

/3
Read 4 tweets
Apr 13
I get that public health folks (myself included) are getting their moment in the sun, but is it really necessary to ape political & sports pundits with hot takes?

1/4
We don't know what direction BA.2 is headed.

Preventing infections is beneficial to health.

Masks prevent infections.

There are no direct harms from wearing a mask.

Some perceive widespread mask use as unacceptable, particularly in children.

2/4
Local officials should make judgments based on what their population believes is feasible & acceptable, accounting for both real & perceived harms.

What one jurisdiction chooses to do may not be right for another.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Apr 11
One (of many) limitations of @CDCgov & @nycHealthy #COVID19 levels is that they tell you where epidemic has been, not where it might be going.

As of today, there’s a 33% chance #NYC will move from low -> medium citywide in one week (by April 18, 2022)

🧵⬇️

/1
My colleagues @WashburneAlex @WCMPopHealthSci Nathaniel Hupert have developed a forecast based on observation that outbreaks of new #COVID19 variants have growth rate & duration that is similar regardless of where outbreak occurs worldwide. Methods at bit.ly/3vajeHH

/2
Our forecast for #NYC’s current BA.2 outbreak is based on the hypothesis that cases in #NYC’s BA.2 outbreak will follow a trajectory similar to the UK’s BA.2 outbreak. See this image that tracks growth rate over time for both UK and NYC.

/3
Read 8 tweets
Dec 22, 2021
In this OpEd (nytimes.com/2021/12/20/opi…), I argued that we should reduce the recommended isolation period for #COVID19 in vaccinated persons. This is how I think through a problem like this. 🧵⬇️
Call it #ThinkLikeAPublicHealthPractitioner, which is different than thinking like a virologist, epidemiologist, or clinician.

Virology helps us answer: how infectious are people with COVID-19 based on duration of infection, vaccination status, symptoms, and other factors?
Epidemiology helps us answer: what is the impact on community disease transmission for different isolation policies and different levels of adherence to those policies?
Read 15 tweets

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