#Erdogan is under pressure to negotiate with #Assad.

You might think no way, right?

After all, he tried his best to topple Assad militarily. He harbors and supports many of al-Assad's opponents. He called al-Assad once a terrorist.

The master of u-turns could well do it. 1/3
Erdogan is incredibly pragmatic, which partly explains his long career at the helm of Turkey. Remember the downing of the Russian jet 7 years ago?

Remember his position from Egypt's Sisi and how he caved later on? His position from Saudi Arabia following Khashoggi's murder?

2/3
3/3
I believe he's seriously considering reconciling with Assad.

Assad might be Erdogan's golden card for the next elections: a way to
- facilitate the return of Syrian refugees in Turkey
- bring the Kurdish elements opposed to Turkey (YPG) in northeast Syria under control.

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More from @Karam__Shaar

Jun 27
A huge effort from the @MEDirections on studying the regime's control over the operations of non-governmental organizations in #Aleppo with a focus on the role of UN agencies.

Here are some disturbing highlights.
1/

cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/hand…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 13
Life is turning into hell for #Syrians in #Turkey

I had to double-check, because, at a first glance, the draconian measures that the Turkish Minister of Interior, Süleyman Soylu, announced two days ago at the Migration Board Meeting in Ankara sounded too extreme to be true.
Syrians will now be banned from visiting relatives and family in northern Syria for the holiday of Eid Al-Adha.

Soylu said that Syrians in Turkey who wish to cross the borders into Syria will only receive one-way permits.
The minister also announced that, from now on, the background of all Syrians coming to Turkey will be checked. Those coming from Damascus will be rejected and returned immediately.

The "Damascus is safe" rhetoric that started in Europe is now echoing in Turkey, too.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 5
Outrageous! The UK Government, argues that arriving in the UK by boat is "deeply unfair because it advantages those with the means to pay people smugglers over vulnerable people who cannot."

So they crafted a "world-leading solution:" send them to RWANDA.
gov.uk/government/spe… ImageImage
Yes, Rwanda, where the notorious human rights abuser, president Kagame, won 99% of the vote in the latest elections!

But according to the Home Secretary, Rwanda is an "outward-looking county."

According to Johnson, Rwanda shares the UK's "humanitarian impulse".
The Israeli government offshored several thousands of asylum-seekers to Rwanda between 2014 and 2017, but later abandoned the scheme when it emerged that some of them ended up in the hands of people smugglers and were subjected to slavery.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 4
THREAD on Syria's new cybercrime law which is now in force

According to Article 29, I can face up to 15 years in prison for my online tool for the exchange rates of the Syrian pound on the black market. 1/6 Image
Here you can find the 15-years-in-prison worthy tool

karamshaar.com/exchange-rates
2/6
The law is littered with vague terms, such as the slandering of public sector employees doing their job, found in Paragraph B of Article 24.

This “slandering” could very well be criticism or a bad review online. It is now punishable by up to 12 months in prison.
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 6, 2021
An excellent investigation from @NYTBen and @hwaida_saad on the production of captagon in Syria.

nytimes.com/2021/12/05/wor…

Here’s what I didn’t know:
“Much of the production and distribution” is overseen by Maher al-Assad’s Fourth Armored Division of the Syrian Army.

Soldiers guard some drug production facilities. Others bear signs declaring them closed military zones.
In support of this view and in reference to the Syrian regime, @joel_rayburn said “It is not like they are looking the other way while drug cartels do their thing. They are the drug cartel.”
Read 6 tweets
May 17, 2021
Thread
Quick comments on a few interesting studies and reports on #Syria that I've read recently.
Narcotics is perhaps the only booming industry in Syria. This excellent report from @CoarGlobal summarizes news articles of seized drug shipments originating from the country since 2011.

See the sharp rise from 2019.
bit.ly/3v6e12J
According to @coarglobal, in 2020, the seized Captagon shipments from Syria had a market value of $3.46 billion.

To appreciate how massive this is, remember that the regime's 2021 budget stood at $2.7 billion. Much of the activity in the narcotics industry is in regime areas
Read 9 tweets

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