Thread by @VolodyaTretyak

General Dmytro Marchenko told in an interview on 09.08.2022 why Russia is moving troops to the south, why the occupiers would not hold a referendum in Kherson on September 11, and what Ukraine needs to celebrate its victory next spring.

Maj. Gen. Dmytro Marchenko was in charge of the defense of the Mykolaiv region until April.

Source: rbc.ua/ukr/news/gener…

Text version also available at @wartranslated: wartranslated.com/ukrainian-gene… /1

My translation:
Interviewer (I): Until April, you were in charge of the defense of the Mykolaiv region. What tasks do you have now in the area - from what you can tell?
Gen. Marchenko (M): I can't tell you anything, I help to get a victory. /2

(I): Over the weekend, a two-day curfew was imposed in Mykolaiv. As officially reported, it aimed to identify collaborators. What were the results?
(M): We conducted quite effective measures, and we "cleaned up" the city. /3

We detected more than 400 offenders; about two dozen were collaborators, drug dealers, and people on the wanted list. This weekend was probably the quietest in the history of Mykolaiv. /4

(I): There is information that the occupants have been pulling forces to the south - to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions - for several weeks. Is it for some serious offensive operation or local attacks? /5

(M): This is probably to make it more convenient for us to destroy them in a pile. There is information that they are reinforcing the troops they already had there. /6

They understand that Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive operation, so they are strengthening their groups there, moving battalion tactical groups. But this will not help them much.
Our Southern Command is now very successful in artillery strikes against enemy targets. /7

In the last week, they destroyed more than ten ammunition depots and command posts. Therefore, believe me, the situation is not as bad as everyone thinks. /8

(I): Do you know approximately how many occupant troops there are in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions?
(M): They say about 25 battalion tactical groups. But I'll tell you honestly - no one has seen exactly how many there are. /9

Anyway, no one is afraid of them here, and no one will run away from them. We are ready to meet them and fight. /10

(I): At the moment, they are concentrating their forces to the south, transferring them from the Izyum direction, from Liman, where they were going to attack Sloviansk. And, as they declared, the capture of Donbas was their number one priority. /11

Am I correct in assuming that they are sacrificing the intensity of their offensive in the east because they felt threatened by us in the south?

(M): The way I see it, they want to have some success somewhere. /12

They don't have any success in the east or south right now, not anywhere. I think they want to try to take over part of the south, and if they succeed, they will prioritize it. /13

(I): The Times recently wrote that the occupiers have allegedly brought in 25,000 troops to encircle Nikolaev. We also heard other versions about their possible plans in the south. /14

For example, the first version is that they want to move toward Kryvyy Rih and further surround Zaporizhzhya. The second version is that they want to move towards Kryvyy Rih and then turn to the Mykolaiv region and possibly move towards Voznesensk. /15

The third version is that they want to advance from the Kherson district to the Mykolaiv region and Mykolaiv. What is their plan?

(M): This is all just speculation as to what they might do. /16

As I see it, they will try to advance in two directions - the Nikolaev direction and the Kryvyi Rih direction. If they manage to break through at least in one direction, then they will transfer the rest of the forces there and make it a priority. /17

(I): If we talk about Kryvyi Rih, it's a very long city. It's hard to see how the Russian army can surround or encircle it. So why would they want to move there? /18

Or do they want to move in the Kryvyi Rih direction to reach the northern administrative borders of the Kherson region?

(M): No, I understand that they have a different plan. /19

They want to capture Kryvyi Rih to create a bridgehead for an attack on Voznesensk and Yuzhnoukrainsk. Then they can try to take Mykolaiv in a ring. /20

They have already tried to take Mykolaiv, but they failed, so now they want to bypass it, take it in a ring and then reduce this ring. So basically, the same way they did with Mariupol. But I think their plans will collapse as soon as they start offensive actions. /21

(I): Is the increased intensity of shelling in Mykolaiv some element of their preparation for an offensive, or is it solely for terror and intimidation of the locals?
(M): I would say that the intensity, on the contrary, has decreased. /22

Today (the conversation took place on August 9, - remark) was the first quiet night. The South Command, in addition to many ammunition depots and command posts, very aptly struck an entire S-300 division. So they are not doing as well as they may seem. /23

(I): Let's imagine: there is no way they can approach and surround Mykolaiv, so they will try to break through to the Odesa Oblast through Voznesensk. Is this a realistic scenario, and how significant is the risk that they will manage to break into Odesa Oblast? /24

(M): Yes, that was in their original plans. But let's say they missed their chance to do so back in March. So now it will be complicated for them; they will suffer heavy losses of personnel and equipment. They are already morally very frazzled and want to flee. /25

From their conversations, we hear that they have already started looking for air mattresses and rubber boats instead of washing machines and microwave ovens. They are getting ready to flee behind the Dnipro River. /26

The AFU has already hit the Antonov bridge several times (photo: GettyImages)
(I): What is the situation with these key crossings over the Dnieper? As far as I understand, the bridge in Darievka we "perforate," Antonovsky road bridge - too. /27

What about the Antonovsky railway one?

....

I will post the second half of the interview in another thread tomorrow. Please like, retweet, and follow :)

end /28

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Part two is now live:

https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1557639940418199553?s=20&t=TWHpxZb-X_KL6WZFv0WzHw