There is an old maxim attributed to Lenin that “You take a bayonet, and you push. If you hit mush, you keep going; if you hit steel, you stop.” Its a brutal euphemism for the Russian behaviour over the past decade, including its invasion of #Ukraine. 1/15 smh.com.au/world/europe/d…
2/ The saying also applies to the Chinese reaction to the Taiwan visit by U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi last week. The Chinese have conducted a series of military activities that rehearse Chinese intentions to cut off Taiwan from the world. chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-f…
3/ The CCP is seeking to change the status quo – to bully a prosperous island democracy and establish a new normal in their aggressive and dangerous military operations around the island and in cyber space.
4/ The Russians have called their ‘pushing the bayonet’ in Ukraine a Special Military Operation. We might well call the recent actions of the Chinese a ‘special tantrum operation’. This might elicit wry grins in national security communities if the situation was not so serious.
5/ But it is a serious situation. Because of the concurrent threats posed by the alignment of Putin & Xi (and the capabilities of their militaries), the democracies of the world face a situation as perilous as that they faced in the dark days of early 1940s. 
6/ The current situation however is far from the worst case we might face in the coming years. Notwithstanding his current preoccupation with the Party Congress in October, President Xi is determined to resolve the #Taiwan issue in his lifetime. economist.com/by-invitation/…
7/ This begs an important question: might we be facing a situation in the near future where not one, but two, wars are being waged against small democratic nations?
8/ This has implications for the global community of democracies that might be called on to support the defence of two nations at once.
9/ First, and most important, governments must inform their citizens about the virtue of protecting democracy, wherever it occurs and whatever form it takes. All democracies matter.
10/ Second, hard choices will need to be made in the coming months (not years) about national commitments to Defence. For this reason, the new Australian Defence review is timely.
11/ Australia, as a responsible, wealthy member of the international community, will need to do much more to play its part along with all democratic nations to deter the chance of the ‘two war’ scenario, but also be ready to fight and win if it does eventuate.
12/ Third, western nations, including Australia, will need to plan for a massive expansion in capacity to produce military equipment, munitions and military forces. This is not military mobilization as some have described - it is something very different and much larger.
13/ It will demand national mobilization of industry, diplomacy, economic capacity and human capital. This will require very difficult political decisions, and strong leadership, on the allocation of national resources in our country and others. rusi.org/explore-our-re…
14/ Back to Lenin’s maxim. The 2nd part is “if you hit steel, you stop.” The steel in this story is the collective willingness of western democracies and their citizens to build and sustain the will (and patience) to do what it takes to defend their freedoms and those of others.
15/ We must collectively demonstrate this will in the military, diplomatic, information & societal domains. It may be the only thing that deters a show down that two aging, ruthless dictators in Beijing & Moscow appear to be forcing upon us all. End. smh.com.au/world/europe/d…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
