This might give you a flavour of why I think continues to be a BEAR MARKET RALLY !!
The Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index tracking the average recommended allocation to stocks by short-term market timers (Traders) is back to "extreme levels of bullish optimism." Some individual investors are even more bullish than that.' You think ONLY India has rallied? Image
MORE PROOF of why this is a EXTREME SHORT COVERING bear mkt Rally....
JPM Strat:"the short covering has been the main driver of late & is now one of the most extreme in the past 5 years on a 20d basis (-3z). The covering has pushed net flows into more positive territory as well" Image
I HONESTLY Felt that NIFTY would top out at 17400 levels.... Clearly I have been wrong on that due to the way shorts are still yet to fully cover in the US Market... there is tons of stream in the US market ... and they rally, so will India. Continue to say, its NOT FUNDAMENTALS
I find it STRANGE that people actually believe that this 20%+ Rally in the NIFTY50 is a BULL MARKET Start.... when they Admit that Earnings overall has been cut... And also BULL MARKET Rallys of 20% cant happen in 35-40 days..
#JustAsking How Come NONE of the BULLS are speaking about the INR rallying back to Rs75/$ ?

How about I lose 10% on the INR and Gain 15% on the market ? #JustSaying
So here is something interesting by @MichaelJBurry__ on Bear Market Rally’s… Image
we've seen some impressive counter trend rallies in the past that failed … Image
According to GS Prime, this rally has now become the 3rd biggest hedge fund short covering event in the last decade. Image

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More from @TheFactFindr

Aug 14
#Indian #CEMENT Stocks: When #NARRATIVE turns 180 deg SOUTH

Trigger: CCI Investigations (This time ITS DIFFERENT)

... A thread.. You will Enjoy it... its almost "fictional" Image
1/ For Years starting 2012, there have been accusations that the Indian Cement Industry worked as a "Cartel" given how resilient Cement Industry Margins were despite sharply falling UTILIZATION levels - The NARRATIVE that supported lofty Valuations given resilient Cashflows
2/ In 2016, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) imposed a $800mn fine on 10 companies for fixing prices, including the Holcim units and UltraTech, but the decision has been challenged since then at the Supreme Court (SC).
Read 22 tweets
Aug 14
With reaching 7000+ followers, it’s a good time to highlight stuff

(1) if your a whatapp university grad & /or believe in MoShah, request you to Unfollow me
(2) I have a very strong moral conscience
(3) I believe in verifiable Facts
(4) I believe in the OVARIAN LOTTERY
(5) if you are engaging in a debate, pls focus on the argument and Not the person. Here is a good way to categorise your arguments provided by @paulg . FOCUS at the TOP of the PYRAMID (6) Image
(6) I believe that if you Avoid Paying your taxes, your NOT a patriot and your views don’t matter (pls differentiate b/w Avoiding Tax (Bad thing) and not being in the Taxable Bracket (not one’s fault))
(7) I tend to have sympathy & empathy for less fortunate & oppressed
Read 4 tweets
Aug 13
#ICICIBank: Interesting titbits from ICICI Q1FY23 ppt. Results were a few weeks ago.

1/ SIGNS OF RURAL STRESS ?? Rural loans grew JUST by 8.4% yy (does not even take care of Input inflation) for a Big bank growing fastest... vs Overall Domestic Loans grew 22% YY...
2/ RBI Rate hike of 40bps on May 4th shld have seen some impact on NIMs +vely in June Qtr given high share of External Benchmark (Repo Rate linked) Loans. Nims just +1bps QoQ (Retail/SME +24-33%yy vs low yielding Corp +14%yy shld hav also added to NIMs). Takes me to my next pt.
3/ Total Deposits declined QoQ (Rs10.64trn => 10.5trn) in a period of high Loan growth... the fight for deposits is gonna SPIKE BIG (HDFC merger effect yet 2 impact)..

P.S. FY YTD System Deposit growth weakens to 8%yy vs Credit growth a stellar @ 13-14% YY (WC Loans)
Read 11 tweets
Aug 12
I am going to make a OUTRAGEOUS prediction... CRUDE OIL is gonna Rally like CRAZY starting October... and my Suspicion is that @IEA Weekly Inventory Data does NOT appear to add up to the Monthly Data which is released with a 8-10 week lag. is JULY Gasoline Demand < July 2020?
2/ I will make a THREAD on this, but let me start with an interesting tit-bit.... Jeff Currie from Goldman Sachs: "Today, commodity markets appear to hold irrational expectations, as prices and inventories fall together, demand beats expectations and supply disappoints."
3/ => basically there is a BIG divergence b/w PAPER Market and PHYSICAL market across commodities. PHYSICAL markets are tight and inventories are falling. Specific to Crude, I dont trust the weekly IEA Data
Read 7 tweets
Aug 12
Interesting Charts on IMPLIED VOLS & the Market Fundamentals...

French electricity prices you ask yourself if a chart can "fall backwards" from becoming too steep? Nobody has a clue about where this is going. Eurostoxx 50 volatility index, V2X is relatively cheap in tht context Image
Reversal strategists are pointing out the VIX vs SPX gap, but these people do not trade volatility. Volatility is mean reverting by "nature", so don't buy into the "last time VIX was here..." arguments. Always use cheap(er) volatility in your overall strategy. Image
Vol "indexes" of Apple, AMZN and Google all hitting new recent lows... Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 25
The JOKE IS ON you Harsh.

(1) You have a problem with me not showing my photo and name and YET i get more people to Join my spaces than you despite you having 3 times the number of followers
(2) You have sent out 30.3k tweets and have 15.5k followers. I have sent 4.9k tweets and have 6.5k followers. So May be you should introspect

(3) I only call out LIES of people. I don’t call people liars. If I did, I am sorry.
(4) you claim to have made 7.5% YTD. That’s superb. Adjusted for Currency which has depreciated by 7.1% since Jan 1st 2022, your Return is flattish. Still VERY GOOD👍

DID YOUR FOLLOWERS who pay for services Make the same Returns ?
Read 4 tweets

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