#Ukraine: The situation around the nuclear power plant in Zaporozhzhia may become critical without permanent access to energy. This issue is unfolding without a due attention and sense of urgency. It requires parallel political int. attention. A pessimist scenario that⤵️
cannot be ruled out is that of threatening or even provoking a small-scale and more manageable Chernobyl-like-disaster. It can be triggered by Russia in the following circumstances: 1) Ukraine's counteroffensive is carried out efficiently in the following weeks;⤵️
2) Putin decides to use the nuclear crises as a deterrent against the Ukrainian efforts to return under control its territories occupied by Russia; 3) Similar to the “grains deal”, Russia is using the potential nuclear crisis to force the EU and US to request negotiations and ⤵️
compromises. Any deal around the nuclear plant could involve trade-offs that may favor Russia. The maximum objective could be to ease some sanctions. A minimal goal would be to make nuclear security around the plant dependent on engagement with Russia just like the "grains deal."
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