Thread by @jwuthnow

What is #China’s military strategy for Taiwan? What problems are the #PLA still facing? What can #Taiwan do?
Just as another CODEL visits Taipei, @ndu_press releases “Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan”
Short thread (1/16)
ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Doc…

The book is the latest product of an annual conference on the PLA sponsored by @RANDCorporation, @NDU_EDU, and Taiwan’s Council on Advanced Policy Studies. Contributors are top PLA scholars from the U.S, Taiwan, and Europe (2/16)

Overall, contributors saw an increasingly dangerous situation in the strait – as we’ve all observed since Speaker Pelosi’s visit – but also lingering PLA weaknesses and options for improving Taiwan’s defenses. (3/16)

Leading the volume is a chapter on #China’s decision calculus from NDU’s Phil Saunders. He describes a menu of options open to Beijing over the years that has recently narrowed to pressure and intimidation. Limited prospects for persuasion or united front tactics. (4/16)

.@USIP’s Andrew Scobell then charts four scenarios for #China’s future. Decisions to use force will depend on political context more than artificial deadlines. Beijing will be especially war-prone in what Scobell calls an “ascendant” or “imploding” future. (5/16)

Then next section of the book covers the spectrum of military operations. @mtdtl from @i_montaigne looks at several types of military ops short of war, including air incursions and offshore island seizures, which could become more frequent in a cross-strait “new normal” (6/16)

In Chapter 5, RAND’s @SaleLilly explains that PLA urban warfare thinking focuses heavily on decapitation strikes and not much on a protracted counterinsurgency – thinking that the PLA might be updating after Russia’s stalled Ukraine invasion (8/16)

Joshua Arostegui from @USArmy then explains how recent PLA reforms have led to improvements in PLA Army and Marine Corps amphibious brigades – organizational pieces key to a successful island landing (9/16)

.@CASI_Research’s @roderick_s_lee dives into the PLA Airborne Corps, providing a fresh and detailed look at its structure before discussing several issues such as training and capacity that could reduce the effectiveness of that key force (10/16)

We then have @ChinaMaritime’s @KennedyMaritime’s analysis of the PLA Navy’s ability to deliver forces across the strait and new PLA thinking on use of civilian assets to make up critical shortcomings in sealift capacity (11/16)

Taiwan scholar Chung Chieh provides a detailed look at the PLA’s reflections on its own heavy logistics requirements for cross-strait operations & its evolving mobilization system – parts of the PLA that could be Achilles’ Heels or key enablers (12/16)

In Chapter 10, I sketch what the overall command structure for a cross-strait war might look like and some of the organizational challenges that could create impediments for the PLA on the road to war -- & how defenders can target those problems (13/16)

The last part of the book is essential reading on shoring up Taiwan’s defenses. @Sinostrategy provides a senior Taiwan scholar’s assessment of the “overall defense concept,” which he says should be refined and needs to be underwritten by a broad political consensus (14/16)

In the last chapter, former DOD official @TangAnZhu discusses urgent needs for Taiwan’s military acquisition and defense reforms as well as thoughts for U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation – which is on everyone’s mind in recent days. (15/16)

Special thanks to @NDU_EDU President Lt. Gen. Michael Plehn for writing the books’ preface – “highly recommended reading for students and policy practitioners focused on China, Taiwan, and the Indo-Pacific region” (16/16)

Michael Casey from @DeptofDefense then offers a useful primer on the three canonical campaigns – firepower, blockade, and island landings – surveying Chinese views on phasing and requirements, as well as key decision points (7/16)