Here's a random timeline: #WhatIf Reimar Horten was able to follow through with his plan to create Radar Absorbent Material during WWII for the Ho 229? #aviation#alternatehistory (1)
At the end of the war, a nearly complete Ho 229 is found and captured by the Americans and transported to the US during Operation Seahorse, along with samples of Horton's RAM. (2)
Once back in the US the Ho 229 and its test data are extensively studied, particularly with regard to its claims of low radar visibility. Horton's RAM is tested in flight on one of the 3 YB-49 Flying Wings in 1947. (3)
The use of RAM confirms that it is possible to create stealth aircraft. The military begins quietly exploring stealth aircraft designs. The first is the RB-49A, a production version of the YB-49 to be used as a reconnaissance aircraft. (4)
Northrup, after a shotgun marriage to Convair puts the RB-49A into full production in 1948. The B-36 Peacemaker goes into a more limited production than in OTL and the now Convair-Northrup B-49 goes into production in 1949. (5)
The B-49 and its variants are generally regarded as the first production Stealth aircraft. 228 airframes are built and become the backbone of SAC after edging out the 156 airframes of the B-36. (6)
Convair-Northrup gain a contract to create a stealth interceptor and uses the XP-79 as the basis for the design, but reduce its tail and narrow the aspect ratio of its air intakes to reduce radar cross section. The finished product the F-92 Nighthawk (7)
The Nighthawk would first see service in the Korean War, and the Air Force quickly found its performance to be lacking as a fighter. It served far better as an attack aircraft. (8)
Post-war the Air Force reduced its orders of the F-92 from 1500 aircraft to the ~500 airframes that had already been built. Pilots hated the plane, as yaw damping autopilot, necessary for it to remain stable in flight, severely reduced maneuverability. (9)
Despite its problems the F-92 would remain in service until 1963. The lessons from the F-92 and B-49 would go on to influence the North American F-108 Rapier, the first production stealth aircraft to not be a Flying Wing. (10)
The F-108 was originally slated for cancellation due to a heavy price tag ($5 Billion at the time of its adoption in 1959). However, the Eisenhower administration pushed the aircraft into production when the Soviets debuted their first stealth bomber the Tu-22 Blinder. (11)
The Blinder was the first supersonic stealth aircraft to be put into production. However the Soviets only ever built 109 air frames. 4,100 F-108 Rapiers would be built to intercept it. (12)
A biproduct of the success of the B-49 was the introduction of commercial aircraft using the flying wing design. Convair-Northrup debuted the CN880 in 1960 as a flying wing in this timeline. (13)
The lower weight and drag of a flying wing inherently reduces fuel consumption, which made the CN880 very attractive to commercial airliners, beating out the Boeing 707 to become the basis for all successive commercial aircraft. (14)
Successors to the CN880 eventually adopted more of a blended-wing-body configuration to improve capacity and improve ease of loading passengers. (15)
Skipping over the problematic historiography, I think Friedman is making a mistake a lot of people are making right now: he's assuming the collapse/crisis is immanent.
I think we have another 5 years and we're barely at the beginning of how bad things can get. (1/)
Simply put, most of us alive today were born in the Long Peace, and Americans in particular have a bad habit of failing to appreciate just how bad things can get. We are at most in the middle of a new Sectional Crisis. (2/)
Oversimplifying, the Sectional Crisis (1848-1861) was a period or American history following the end of the Mexican American war, and really the end of the Missouri Compromise with the Compromise of 1850. (3/)
1: Some industry buddies and I have been taking another crack at the Drake equation based on recent discoveries in astronomy and came away with an eerie conclusion:
There was less than a 50% chance for Earth to have developed an industrial civilization at this point (1) #space
2: For the unfamiliar, here's Carl Sagan running the Drake Equation in 1977.
3: Since Frank Drake came up with this thought experiment in 1961 we've learned quite a bit about the development of sentient life on our own planet, and more about exoplanets than can be summarized in a tweet.
Pitch: Bobby has been living in New York working on his standup routine and writing for SNL. He's coming home because he's got a Netflix special coming out. The series is very much an indictment of small town America, and Texas in particular.
In May of 1992, after a decade of spite-fueled lobbying, the final state to ratify the Congressional Apportionment Amendment... and all hell breaks loose.
Like in OTL, many Congressmen are livid that a new amendment has been imposed upon them, and try to block certification. (2)
On May 18, 1992, the Archivist of the United States, Don W. Wilson, certifies that the amendment's ratification had been completed, despite more legitimate calls that the wording of the amendment is unworkable. (3)
The National Ignition Facility uses Inertial Confinement to achieve nuclear fusion. What that means is that you shoot a 192 laser beams (2.1 megajoules combined) at a thimble full of Hydrogen-3 (Tritium) and Hydrogen-2 (Deuterium.) (1)
...In a fraction of a second these gasses become almost 100x denser than lead which initiates fusion, essentially creating an artificial star.
This test, lasted 3.14 femto-seconds. Or 3.14 quadrillionths of a second. In that time it produced 2.5 megajoules of energy. (2)
Now, there are some challenges that still need to be overcome. Firstly, the NIF isn't a powerplant, there's no way for them to actually harness the energy of a fusion reaction. That's partly why the reaction was so brief, the heat had nowhere to go. (3)
Since Artemis I has splashed down, I figured I'd give a no BS assessment from am aerospace industry insider (me) on what comes next for Cislunar exploration.
Either late this year or early next year, Astrobotic will attempt a landing on the moon under a NASA contract... (1)
A second landing was planned to deliver NASA's VIPER rover to the Lunar South Pole in November next year, but that mission required the XL-1 lander built by Masten, who went bankrupt this year. Even if Masten's assets are acquired, a completed XL-1 is unlikely in 2023. (2)
2023 will also not see the DearMoon mission fly. I really don't know anyone who takes that mid-2023 launch date seriously. Odds are Starship will complete an uncrewed orbital test flight sometime next year, but we're 2 years away from putting test pilots on board. (3)