Share this page!

Karen Cutter Profile picture
Twitter logo
Sep 1 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The NSW Health weekly epi report for the week ending 27 August came out today.
Short thread this week/
#covid19Aus #covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…
Only a few highlights this week as trajectories haven't changed, and I'm a bit fried after the excess deaths stuff this week:
- cases are down 21% and all age groups moving similarly; good
- PCR testing is down, but positivity rate is also down; good
- hospital admissions down 15%; excellent. The biggest % fall we've seen in a long time
- people in hospital down 6%; good. Hopefully this % will be even bigger next week as the lower admissions flow through
- 126 deaths; never good. But the lowest number in the seven weeks
- 43% of deaths were in aged care; lower than the 50%-ish we have been seeing
- nothing interesting on variants of concern; excellent
- flu is so over that I'm not going to mention it again!

The end. Questions?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Karen Cutter

Karen Cutter Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KarenCutter4

Karen Cutter Profile picture
Sep 2
Here's a summary of the various bits of data we know about COVID-19 deaths in Australia. Image
Here's the same table from a month ago. Image
And here is a table of the change that has occurred in the month. Image
Read 6 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Aug 30
Our latest estimates of excess deaths are out, covering all cause mortality to the end of May 2022, plus COVID-19 only mortality for Jun-Aug.
#COVID19Aus #excessdeaths
TLDR: +8,500 excess deaths in 5 months to May (12%)
actuaries.digital/2022/08/31/cov…
Note our excess deaths are measured relative to pre-pandemic expectations of mortality.
Includes allowance for continuation of mortality improvement/decline for each cause of death.
Allows for changes in the size and age composition of the population.
Another month of huge excess deaths in May. Only one week in 2022 to date has been within our 95% confidence interval
Read 20 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Aug 25
The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 20 Aug came out today, and it looks pretty similar to last week.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…
Cases are down another 27% this week, and are now at a similar level to the trough before the BA.4/5 wave took off.
PCR testing is down, and so is the positivity rate. Good.
Read 14 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Aug 24
This mammoth thread from the UK came out last night. Here are my thoughts, and some comments on Australia.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus
Nerd alert: I am massively happy to see age standardisation used in the methodology to estimate excess deaths.
This is a major flaw in the ABS commentary on its Provisional Mortality Statistics. Its "baseline" makes no allowance for population changes.
[I'm on an Actuaries Institute working group that has a specific focus on the mortality impacts of the pandemic. You can find out latest here.]
Read 20 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Aug 3
Our latest on excess deaths in Australia, covering all cause mortality to 30 April, plus excess from COVID-19 only to 31 July.
#Covid19Aus
TLDR: 13% excess (+6,800 deaths) Jan-Apr 22.
8% excess (+3,500 deaths) from Covid only May-July.
Covid third leading cause of death in 2022.
Total excess mortality for the month of April 2022 estimated at 9% (+1,200 deaths).
More than half is due to doctor-certified COVID-19 deaths. Other unspecified causes and coroner-referred deaths (which include some COVID-19 deaths) also made a significant contribution.
With January at 20% excess mortality, February at 15% and March at 7%, this takes total excess mortality for the first four months of 2022 to 13% (+6,800 deaths).
Read 14 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Aug 2
In advance of our work on excess deaths coming out in the next day or so, and with quite a few new followers, I thought I'd do a thread on how we calculate our baseline predicted values for 2022, and how these compare to what the ABS uses.
#COVID19Aus
What did we do? We used ABS standardised death rates (SDRs) for each cause of death as the basis of our projections. The SDRs allow for changes in both population size and age mix. We built in trends for mortality improvement. We then converted that back to numbers of deaths.
What do ABS do? They use the average number of deaths in 2017-19+21 without any adjustment for population changes or trend.
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(