Nic Cheeseman Profile picture
Sep 3 13 tweets 4 min read
What happens if the Supreme Court nullifies the Kenyan Presidential election 2023 on Monday?

That’s far from the end of the story.

A 🧵

1. It seems far more likely they will …

#kenyaelections2022
#KenyansDecides2022
#kenya

kenyalaw.org/kenyalawblog/e…
… order a “fresh” election or a “run off” than give victory straight to Odinga.

This immediately creates a massive challenge: who will organise the necessary election?

Azimio will reject Chebukati, Kenya Kwanza will reject the 4 “rebel” commissioners.

To avoid deadlock …
… the Court will therefore need to make further rulings to provide some guidance as to how the IEBC should be managed.

Otherwise there is a big risk of returning to 2017, when the second election was just as problematic as the first …

How easily the IEBC can manage the …
… process will depend on whether the Court orders a fresh election or a second round run off.

2. A fresh election would be easier. In this case it is the same election again. So no need to change the ballot papers or the KIEMS kits. This is still a costly and big …
… logistical challenge, but it would be more straightforward than …

3. A run-off between the top two candidates, which would require printing a different ballot paper and so on, and would have a shorter timeframe (30 days) putting the IEBC under tremendous pressure

Either …
… way, a number of other issues will arise.

4. Azimio has made much of “Venezuelans” and accusations of foreign interference. As the IEBC - like most commissions - employs experts from around the world, this would be no different in another election.

Indeed, Smartmatic …
… will be key to the IEBC being able to hold another election so soon.

5. If the Court feels more substantial changes to procedure are warranted it could decide to give the IEBC more time to arrange the election - as in 2017.

But here we could run into other issues …
… most obviously, the current IEBC Chair’s term in office is due to expire early next year.

It would no doubt please Azimio leaders to push the next election date to this point so that Chebukati cannot preside, but given how long it takes someone to learn the role of Chair …
… this would mean either a) holding the next election with an inexperienced Chair and risk further controversy or b) a very long delay to the second election.

My sense is that the Court would want to avoid both eventualities and so will want the poll wrapped up this year …
… which means there is only so much time to play with in terms of making improvements to the system.

6. Another issue the Court may wish to express an opinion on is whether President Kenyatta would enjoy the full set of powers going into the next election or a reduced set …
… and it may choose to make a statement regarding the alleged use of state resources and chiefs in favour of Azimio candidates, though Courts generally wish to ensure it does not look like they are legislating and so are reluctant to be too prescriptive about how processes …
… should look.

7. Other important clarifications that will be necessary from the Court relate to the use of the manual register, and the process for the IEBC verifying and declaring the final result. This will be important to try and avoid repeat controversies to the first …
… election.

As in 2017, this is likely to mean that the Court will deliver a very long and complex judgement that will take some time to fully digest and fully understand.

See you on Monday …

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Nic Cheeseman

Nic Cheeseman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Fromagehomme

Sep 2
Big development in the Kenyan elections. Contacting party agents to get original forms 34A from disputed polling stations, the BBC did not find a single discrepancy

In other words there is “no evidence of interference”

🧵

#Kenya
#kenyaelections2022

bbc.co.uk/news/62724762 Image
The BBC managed to get copies of the forms given to party agents for 21 polling stations, including in some case from Azimio agents

They find these all match the official results. This means the forms were not tampered with through some kind of hacking

“They were the same” Image
This perhaps tells us why so many kg the accusations brought by the Azimio side have not been backed up by the hard evidence of the agent’s forms.

These copies seem to have been available to Azimio, but could not be submitted as they would have contradicted the petition.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22
A few (very early) thoughts on the Azimio petition.

Let’s start with the strengths:

1. the KPMG audit did indeed raise a number of concerning points that need to be investigated
2. is true that the absence of elections for …

🧵 1/7

#KenyansDecides2022
#KenyanElection2022
… Governor in Kakamega and Mombasa may have reduced turnout in the presidential election for Odinga, though some of the accusations about why this happened are speculative and unevidenced.
3. If they can provide forms to substantiate the claim that 23,500 more people vote in …
… the Pres election in Kirinyaga than in the governorship election, that seems like a very high number that needs investigation.
4. If the claims about forms 34As being tampered with can be substantiated, this could cast doubt on the wider process - though many of these …
Read 36 tweets
Aug 17
Having fact checked + challenged some election rigging accusations, it is worth making it clear that the election was not perfect

There are areas where @IEBCKenya will want to perform better next time + make for reasonable criticism

Here are a few:

🧵1/5

#KenyanElection2022
1. There was inconsistent use of the manual register in some areas. This seems to have been because court decisions changed the process twice *after* the IEBC completed training, so maybe not IEBC's "fault", but it is nonetheless an inconsistency

citizen.digital/news/court-of-…
2. The IEBC did a much much better job with the digital scans of forms 34A and forms 34B than in 2017, which is great, but it is still the case that the portal is missing 28 forms 34A (though, as of now, is not missing any forms 34B).

This is an area for further improvement.
Read 22 tweets
Aug 16
Serena 4 presser now on

Started very badly for their credibility

Claim a big problem is that the results stated added to 100.1% which is “mathematically impossible”

It’s not impossible it’s the product of rounding the numbers …

#KenyanElection2022
#KenyaDecides2022 Image
Proceeds to suggest there are 142,000 votes not counted.

Again, there is a basic misunderstanding of mathematics.

There are no 142,000. The 100.1% is due to rounding the numbers.

These claims could not be weaker so far.

#KenyanElection2022
#KenyaDecides2022 Image
Also rather surprised Azimio have scheduled this - and screened the Serena presser at their own event - to make it clear they are coordinating with the Serena 4

Very bad optics, especially given the timing of the Serena 4 statement and the Azimio wall out from Bomas Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 15
Heartbreaking to see the Kenyan elections fall apart

Explosive claims being made, including by 4 IEBC commissioners

Interesting that despite making a statement that may rip the country apart they provided no evidence + took no questions

Watch this space

#KenyanElection2022
Sadly all hopes of a consensual process + accepted outcome are now dashed

The question is now whether IEBC will go ahead + announce today

Those watching from outside might be surprised to know that in terms of the digital process of forms 34A + B this was much better than 2017 Image
Chebukati now on stage at Bomas presumably to announce the result.

Security forces seem to have done their job by returning order to Bomas.

For those asking, I believe the Chair can legally announce even if some commissioners disagree. Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 3, 2020
On Kenya BBI & the gender quota. Am I missing something or does it fail to *guarantee* that no more than two-thirds of Parliament will be of the same gender? I have read the proposals & it is not clear to me that it does 1/5 @MitullahWinnie @karutikk @gathara @Nanjala1 #BBIReport
BBI mandates parties to have 30% women on their candidate lists. But this doesn’t ensure they win - if they contest against other male candidates many may lose. Only 27 women in the current parliament did not come through the reserved county seats. 2/5 @kopalo #BBIReport
That means that securing the threshold will likely depend on the 70 seats to be appointed by the parties on the basis of their vote share. But reports suggest only 35 of these have to go to women. That’s a *loss* of 12 compared to the 47 county women’s representatives. #bbi 3/5
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(