Thread by @WarintheFuture

In the past week, the Ukrainian southern campaign has continued to develop. Operational security has been tight (logically), so official word on progress has been minimal. In this thread, I pose open questions about the campaign, knowing we won’t have answers for a while. 1/19 🧵

2/ That said, there is very good coverage from people I respect. Folks like @shashj @MarkHertling @KofmanMichael @RALee85 @PhillipsPOBrien @TheStudyofWar @IAPonomarenko and others provide useful and often complementary strategic perspectives on this campaign, and the broader war.

3/ Others such as @War_Mapper @DefMon3 @Militarylandnet @WarMonitor3 @Nrg8000 @JominiW provide good operational and tactical mapping and insights.

4/ And of course, there is also #NAFOfellas….

5/ So, there are more questions than answers at this point of the campaign. That is ok. Large scale operations like this can also take time to gain momentum. So, what are the things I am thinking about at this point of the Ukrainian southern campaign?

6/ First, is this primarily about ground or about destroying/capturing the enemy? I know there have been some statements about focussing from senior Ukrainians about a focus on the Russian Army. And capturing large numbers of Russians would be a disaster for Putin.

7/ But, Ukraine can’t afford a long, attritional fight. It will have more campaigns to fight after this and will need to preserve its forces where possible. Balancing the enemy-centric and ground-centric aspects of this campaign will be a key senior leadership challenge.

8/ A second question is the scope of the operation. Has the last week been the unveiling of the main effort in the Ukrainian campaign, or is it a prelude to something else?

9/ A third question is how this campaign fits into the overall architecture of Ukraine’s medium term military #strategy. What is the weighting of effort in the south as opposed to the Donbas and around Kharkiv, while also keeping some kind of operational reserve?

10/ Related to this overall strategy is sequencing. This is important because #Ukraine is probably going to have to conduct quite a few of these offensives this year and into 2023 (and maybe 2024) if it is to eject the Russian invaders.

11/ A fourth question is related to force generation. We have seen reports of 700K Ukrainian’s mobilized in the open press. How is the training of these forces going, how many will be reinforcements for this campaign and how many others kept in reserve for subsequent offensives?

12/ A fifth question relates to sustainability. While there is a clear commitment from the west to support #Ukraine, how much more equipment and munitions are actually available to send to theatre? I don’t see this as a question of will, but rather industrial capacity.

13/ As I noted earlier, there will need to be more offensives like this one to eject the Russians from #Ukraine. How well is western industry postured to produce the range of equipment and consumables for this campaign, and for what comes next?

14/ A 6th question relates to politics. What is the best & worst outcomes of this campaign for Zelensky & Putin? We might imagine a range of different political outcomes depending on battlefield results. And what might an outcome such as a major Ukrainian victory mean in Europe?

15/ Question 7: how well will each side learn in this campaign? This is the first major Ukrainian offensive. Mistakes will be made (it is war after all), but there is much to learn so that the Ukrainians can adapt and improve for subsequent campaigns.

16/ Question 8: what about the info fight? How do we preserve key operational & tactical information during a campaign, while keeping citizens informed and shaping strategic audiences. Responsible commentary is part of it, but governments also have an interesting balancing act.

17/ Finally, one question I don’t have to ask is the commitment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in defending their nation. From day one of the Russian invasion, they have been guided by clear purpose, and good leadership, to out think and out fight the Russians.

18/ Russian morale, leadership and cohesion is another question. Having had their C2 and logistics targeted in the previous weeks, the fragility or otherwise of the Russian scheme of defence in the south will be interesting to watch.

19/ So, I don’t have a lot of answers in this thread. And if I did have answers to them, I would not share them! But hopefully, this provides some insights into how strategic leaders might be thinking about this southern campaign…and what comes after. End.