The 4-year cycle is on point!
Each cycle consists of 3 phases. π§΅π
#Bitcoin
2/ The 4-year spiral chart is my go-to for discussing timing in #Bitcoin. The color-coded chart reflects unrealized profit and losses, unveiling cycle patterns.
3/ We're 6 months into the recovery phase/early bull market. Young transactions, aka Short-Term Holders (STH's) offer crucial signals, profoundly impacted by current price action.
I've seen this chart doing the rounds, time to discuss some misconceptions π§΅π
First, let's zoom out to provide some context where we're coming from.
Two things stick out immediately: 1. We really went sideways into this All-Time-High alignment. 2. We're comparing previous pointy blow-off tops to a flat distribution top.
Not saying above chart isn't valid, however it's the most bearish alignment possible and imo an unlikely outcome considering the points just made. Now let's chop through both points in further detail.
Perhaps the most important chart in #Bitcoin currently!
For the past months we've had LTH capitulation β β shown by the rapidly falling LTH Cost Basis.π
An uptick is a first sign that LTHβs might have stopped capitulating! Note: early signal, but finally a change in trend!
Context: The LTH Cost Basis is the average purchase price of all LTH's. While we had STH capitulation earlier this year, the drawdown of past months was mostly caused by LTHβs as the Cost Basis declining means more recent LTH's where selling coins purchased at higher prices.
LTH Spent Price is the average price at which LTH's bought the coins they're currently spending.
There are a limited amount of LTH's that have an average purchase price of 33k, namely the ones that bought in the tops. The question is: did we run out yet?
The past 6 days we did!
1/8 Why the April 2021 top could be seen as the real bull market cycle top. #Bitcoin
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2/8 I've been posting charts comparing the #Bitcoin cycles aligned by ATH's using the April 2021 top and get obviously many comments saying that "November is the ATH".
Although a case could be made to use November, in this thread I'll explain why I believe April might be better.
3/8 Most on-chain but also traditional indicators show a top in April rather than November.
Looking at #Bitcoin's supply we see that the first peak of 2021 has an enormous increase in Short-term Holder supply while the second has none.