Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Silver

Most recents (24)

When #silver $slv miners bottom, how hard will the bounce back be? A comment by @LawrenceLepard in a space last night made me dive in a little further. Let's start with the 2020 crash:
*Note: I used Pan American Silver (PaaS) as many silver ETFs and other top current names weren't nearly as established across both time periods. Data is similar throughout the sector.

PaaS bottomed on 3/20/2020. Here's the price action in the following days:
The bounce off the bottom was over 43%. Although, a patient person, if timing the pullback perfectly (GLTA 🙃 there) could have gotten on the silver bull 22% off the low on 3/31.
Read 6 tweets
Last weekend, I covered why the energy crisis is driving an accelerating #silver supply-demand imbalance. Now, let’s take a shot at the WHEN question by taking a quick look at charts from the bears of the past, with the idea they may be prologue.
Note: I do NOT think I can time this with any precision. If my flip to bullishness in late August was the bottom, luck will have played a big factor. I have zero qualifications. I just like commodity markets. To the charts! 👇
Let’s start with the DotCom Bust.

#Gold found its bottom in Feb of 01, silver in Nov of 01, and the SP500 in Oct of 02. Image
Read 12 tweets
#Silver could be on the cusp of a parabolic move higher. Recall that prices are down ~2/3's from the peak more than 40 years ago while many commodities have been multi-baggers in that period. (1/9)
Average primary silver miner grades have essentially fallen in half over the past 20 years, and prices are now nonsensically below all-in sustaining mining costs. (2/9)
Meanwhile, #solar and #India have exploded as tremendous sources of demand while supply is largely stagnant. The @SilverInstitute estimates solar will comprise 11.5% of demand this year, up 12% YoY, but this makes no sense. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
I've never been more excited about #silver. And it has nothing to do with the Fed or the USD. It's a story of the #oil and #gas crisis and it's 2nd/3rd order effects.

Let's start with the supply side. 73% of silver is a byproduct of Zinc, Copper, Lead, and Gold.
Smelting is energy intensive. According to @Eurometaux, half of the EU's Zinc output has already been shut off. As Zinc's smelting process separates the Silver from the ore, this is decreasing supply.

Since only 27% of Silver supply is primary,
the cure for high prices is not necessarily high prices. Silver rocketing to $50 wouldn't bring much more mine supply online (although it could incent bullion sales).
Read 17 tweets
LBMA #silver inventories dropped another 3.6% last month!

The #silverdrain continues!

And remember, a significant portion of this is allocated to ETFs like $SLV

LBMA: "These figures provide insight to LBMA's ability to underpin the physical OTC market"

That ability is falling Image
Also always fun to point out that 6 years after the @lbmaexecutive said they would start posting #platinum inventory data there's still nothing

They said it would begin "soon"

Why is that?

#platinumsqueeze would happen, that's why
the other thing to note is that COMEX inventories are falling at the same time.

Thus, unlike the drop in 2020 where LBMA silver flows went to backstop the COMEX vaults, both are experiencing simultaneous drains as silver is consumed by demand in excess of supply
Read 3 tweets
Slides used with @PeterMcCormack @WhatBitcoinDid.
Hope you enjoy the podcast/youtube!
🧵👇 Image
Spiral based on Halvings/blocks. #Bitcoin Image
Time based Spiral, 4 year cycle. #Bitcoin Image
Read 22 tweets
1/ Thread
Here is what has happened and what will happen regarding to USD and inflation.

Regardless of manipulation by Banksters, I observe #gold behaves like predictor of future inflation (leading indicator for 1-2 year). Here is an example:
2/
In 2018 gold rise from $1200 to $2070 in 2020, but all other prices including food and energy are stable. Next we have prolonged consolidation of gold after mid 2020 and slight deflation. Based on my hypothesis, this means we are seeing deflationary in overall price. But..
3/
...don't get me wrong, there are some that will be sharply rising because this is an artificial deflation. The Banksters made illusion that we are in deflationary era by shorting/smashing all commodity futures at the same time. The consequences of this manipulation are:
Read 11 tweets
Silver doesn't look good in the short term, but if you're not trading #silver but investing in the sector, be aware of the possible paths that yields and inflation can take from here. A quick thread.🧵 Silver is basically like buying tips.(1/7)
(2/7) Look at the near perfect correlation. Tips are the inverse of real yields, which is the current nominal yield minus inflation expectations. Silver and gold love negative real yields and hate the opposite. Real yields are on the rise right now.
(3/7) The FED is showing their theeth and the economy goes off the cliff. Therefore, the market is currently lowering inflation expectations due to an impending recession, but yields are being driven higher by the aggressive Fed talk.
Read 7 tweets
#CEV
Number of #unemployed over-50s surges in ‘#silver exodus’ from UK workplaces
Despite rise in job vacancies, 3.6 million Britons aged 50-64 are now #economicallyinactive, in trend seen since #Covid #pandemic
theguardian.com/society/2022/a…
/2 This total of over-50s in receipt of #state help while looking for work has risen by 65,000 on the month immediately prior to the pandemic, and comes when job vacancies stood at over 1.274m.
/3 #grafters
The total of 375,000 over-50s on #unemployment #benefits is also 173,000 higher than five years ago. Among those who are 16-64 and classed as economically inactive, 20% (1.7 million people) want a #job. #Disabled #Carers
Read 5 tweets
Read 232 tweets
At some point #silver is going to break out and make a new ATH

We can use price action and cycles to identify that infection point

A thread...
There have been 4 weekly cycles since #silver had it's blow off top in August 2020. Everyone is waiting for the weekly cycle that will retest $30 or maybe even more.
During the COVID crash #silver printed a weekly swing high on week 11 of its weekly cycle and then declined 39% over the course of four weeks to a low of $11.64. That was a very short weekly cycle at 14 weeks.
Read 11 tweets
💥The Amazing #Ancient Persian Gold and Silver Oxus Treasure👑👀💥

(A thread 1/6)👇

An incredible treasure discovered near the Oxus River is one of the most precious collections of ancient #Persian artifacts known to us today.

#FindsFriday #History #art
Around 180 pieces of #jewelry, metalwork and statuettes, and about 200 coins have survived, but the original cache was much bigger. Comprised of stunning #gold and #silver artifacts, the #treasure is an impressive example of ancient #wealth. (2/6)

#FindsFriday #art #Archaeology
The Oxus #Treasure was discovered about 1877-1880. The exact place and date of the find remains a mystery. Kobadiyan has been suggested as most likely place. (3/6)

#FindsFriday #History #Art

Gold & Silver statuettes of bearded men (British Museum)
Read 6 tweets
I said I'd start doing this, and I'm still only on twitter and reddit, so here is as good of place as any

Just finished a rebalance exercise so it's a good time to add it all up

Current approximate allocation in my portfolios (including my self managed 401k):
#Silver (PSLV + Physical) 16.4%
#Platinum (PPLT + Physical) 14.5%
$LTPZ 14.4%
$SILJ 13.9%
$PICK 8.5%
$URNM 8.1%
$USO 6.9%
$GDXJ 4.7%
$CENX Jan Calls 2.4%
$SII Feb Calls 1.8%
$ANGPY 1.4%
$IMPUY 1.4%
$PLG 1.4%
$RJZ 1.4%
$LAND 1.4%
#Gold (PHYS + Physical) 0.7%
Cash/Other 0.8%
Since the beginning of the year I've been expanding into many commodities and inflation plays and have been periodically rebalancing my weights based on market moves

This is probably a bit more diversified than some may have thought, also why I thought I should start sharing
Read 4 tweets
1) Sanket Mahadev Sargar - 🥈

Silver in weightlifting in Men's 55kg category
😍🇮🇳🥈

#CWG2022India #CWG2022
#weightlifting #Silver #SanketMahadevSargar ImageImageImage
2) Gururaja Poojary -🥉

Bronze in weightlifting Men's 61kg category
😍🇮🇳🥉

#CWG2022India #CWG2022
#weightlifting #Bronze #GururajaPoojary ImageImageImage
3) Saikhom Mirabai Chanu - 🥇🔥

GOLD in weightlifting Women's 49kg category
😍🇮🇳🥇

#CWG2022India #CWG2022
#weightlifting #Gold
#MirabaiChanu ImageImageImage
Read 63 tweets
The Panic of 1873: Your money is not money anymore (USA edition)

A Thread 🧵

Also, #bitcoin
The Panic of 1873 was a financial crisis that triggered an economic depression in Europe and North America that lasted from 1873 to 1877 or 1879 in France and in Britain.
The Panic of 1873 and the subsequent depression had several underlying causes for which economic historians debate the relative importance. American inflation, rampant speculative investments (overwhelmingly in railroads), the demonetization of silver in Germany
Read 24 tweets
What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 250722

As anticipated by #Proshare analysts, the MPC, on Tuesday, decided to extend its hawkish stance by raising the base rate by 100bp.

read more:
proshare.co/articles/what-…

#AskProshare #MarketUpdates

#Thread
Nigeria Economy:

According to the Committee Chairman, @cenbank Governor #Emefiele, the unanimous decision to hike the rate was aimed at curtailing inflation and reducing the pace at which consumer purchasing power was being eroded by inflation.

proshare.co/articles/what-…

#CBNMPC
Global Economy:

For the first time in 11 years, @ecb on Thur. raised its benchmark deposit rate by 50 basis points to zero percent. The EU’s record high inflation (8.6% in June) forced the ECB to end its eight-year experiment with negative interest rates

proshare.co/articles/what-…
Read 15 tweets
Getting a big bounce out of $Euro here right after hitting parity, thus putting a pause on the $DXY rally for now.

A backtest of the major support it broke in the 105 area seems logical & about the area where RSI would hit 60, which it has failed at on every rally for 1 yr now/
$Copper bouncing off 50% Fib retrace ('08 low to '22 high) ~ 3.15. Down 38% now just since March & RSI has been <30 for 1 month.

Seems about time for a pause here. If Dr. Copper is pausing it's collapse w/Euro & DXY paring off, feels like time for "risk on" bear market rally/
Makes sense, as we're seeing $SPX break out above this downtrend line here. Too many bears becoming complacent. RSI has failed at 60 on every rally since Dec (typical of bear markets). Currently at 55, I'd watch that level for another failure & initial resistance ~4100)/
Read 6 tweets
China's most-traded #IronOre futures plunge 5.9% at night open, coke down 4.8%, coking #coal down 2.8%, hot rolled coils down 2.7%, #SteelRebar down 1.8%. Image
Benchmark Dalian #IronOre futures extend losses to 6.8% at 669 yuan/ton amid property sector turmoil.
Shanghai non-ferrous #metals fall on demand outlook, #nickel down 4.2%, #tin down 2.6%, #zinc down 1.6%.
Read 6 tweets
🧵Macro prediction for #OIL

Everyone in the world currently has a stressful moment visiting gas stations, they'll be delighted to hear, that for a few months forward this situation will get better as $OIL will be getting cheaper

However that will only apply for a while 👇

1/14
After the covid crash across global markets, we've seen some unprecedented printing that has sent the prices of assets to big highs, Oils included.

Oil is slightly lagging behind the rest of the commodities but we can expect the correlation to follow others

2/
Here we have #Copper & #Oil merged together, we can see the correlation being very effective & while most commodities have already pulled back to retest their previous support areas, Oil is yet to do so

It is merely lagging & stayed strong due to the war in Ukraine. For now.

3/
Read 14 tweets
4 RICO not suave
#JPMorgan traders
go on trial today🧵

Wait?!

US DoJ claims PM mkts 'were' criminal
JPMorgan still dominates US precious metals derivative mkt share

This topic is way deeper than mere greed

- bloom.bg/3Pf2W97 -
2 Bloomberg reporters tagged below Image
IRONIC TIMING:
💣former London gold trader
precious metals mkt makers increasingly use unsecured derivatives to subvert mkt forces, now decades running:
reaction.life/dont-forget-th…
"Once investors swallowed this stupefying pill it was easy to sell them gold that simply didn’t exist." Image
JPMorgan
paid a paltry $920 million fine
for the US Department of Justice's 8 yr RICO precious metals rigging indictment 2008-2016

US Office of the Comptroller of the fiat Currency
often known by the acronym OCC just acknowledged Q1 22 that +90% of PM derivatives = JPMorgan/Citi Image
Read 31 tweets
The Players of #QuantumComputing #stonks #stocks In light of #NIST Post Quantum Crypto announcement

🧵dedicated to #fintwit #gold #silver #oil and other #investing 🐻 #StockMarket 🐂retail crackheads including a #cryptocurrency bonus for those who stick till the end 👇
2/16

A pure quantum play $IONQ

Founded in 2015, it is a commercial offshoot of 25 years of academic QC science. The company focuses on scalable quantum information processing and quantum communication hardware

IonQ's hardware is based on a trapped ion architecture
3/16

Another pure play $RGTI

Rigetti Computing was in 2013. The company went public in 2022 via a SPAC merger, and plans to scale its quantum computer systems to 4,000 qubits by 2026

They make superconducting qubit-based quantum processors on silicon and CIA I-Q-Tel baked it
Read 19 tweets
🧵I FOUND OUT WHERE #BITCOIN WILL BOTTOM!

A secret untold story that nobody is talking about

After reading this thread, you'll be 1 in a Million to know about this 💎

🔹 Metals correlation
🔹 DXY correlation
🔹 Copper sharp drops
🔹 Technicals
🔹 Fundamentals

1/28
Now that I got your attention let's dig in

Many people are aware of the SPX & #BTC correlation but I believe the best asset correlation to be used for #Bitcoin is METALS & $DXY

Mainly Copper & Silver

And the root cause of it all is the Dollar & the FED policy of course 👇

2/
🔹 Metals correlation

It's kinda crazy when u see it first and think why is nobody seeing this

I've pointed out the correlation with Copper first and marked each significant cycle low & bottom.

You can see how closely they correlate to each other on the Higher Timeframes

3/
Read 28 tweets
Okay guys, it’s time to put the tinfoil hat on. I suspect that Credit Suisse is largely behind the massive efforts in precious metals rigging that have defied all logic for quite some time. I still don’t think I’m at the bottom of the rabbit hole, but here’s what I have uncovered
First, I want you to take a look at $SLVO — today it closed under the March 2020 lows FFS!!! This ETF uses a covered call strategy and is sold as being a product that offers a higher yield than just owning an asset/commodity outright (silver e.g. — without selling any options) Image
Think about that: this product, sold to customers as being conservative, volatility reducing, and income generating, is now UNDER march 2020 lows. Is this insane? Yes, it is. Please continue reading: Recently, we saw a massive spike in Credit Suisse CDS. CDS stands for Credit
Read 16 tweets
Revisiting SMOEC, and updating some of the old excel charts for you guys

I've since begun tracking SMOEC (SIlver - MOney - EConomy) in trading view because its automated and easier, but there's some fun things in the excel charts also

1st, here's the Money Supply to GDP ratio:
As you can see it's been pretty flat, and has technically been flat since April 2020

Why use nominal GDP? I made SMOEC as a way to measure silver valuation levels without touching CPI at all, given the changes over the years to how it's measured. So Real GDP is a no go for me
The next step is to divide the silver price by said ratio and then you have what I call 'SMOEC' ("smoke")

I do think there is some subjectivity on how you draw the long term support line, so I've drawn both of my interpretations here
Read 11 tweets

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