Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Silver

Most recents (24)

We're hearing more and more about how the CRE market could crumble soon, and take down some banks with it.

But what exactly is CRE, what's wrong with it, and why is it so important?

Time for a Credit 🧵👇
🤓 What is CRE?

First of all, what exactly is the Commercial Real Estate or CRE market, and what are its components?

To keep it simple, the CRE market can be divided into six main sectors:

Office, Retail, Industrial, Multi-Family Property, Hospitality, and Special Purpose.
To break it down further:

Offices = urban high-rises or suburban offices/campuses

Retail = shopping centers (strip or regional malls) + stand alone stores or big-boxes, like Home Depot or Krogers

Industrial = warehouses, manufacturing, and distribution centers 👇
Read 41 tweets
#Commodity sector continues its strong start to June with the Bloomberg Commodity Index trading up 3.5% to a three-week high
Technical perspective: #copper, #gold, #silver are all showing signs of bottoming out with multiple factors adding support (1/5)…
Apart from a softer dollar providing a general lift following weeks of strength, we are seeing increased speculation that the Chinese government may step up its support for the economy and some signs that demand is holding up
Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index remains down 8% on the year with losses being led by the energy sector, not least a 56% slump in US natural gas, as well as industrial metals suffering from a so far, less commodity intensive post-pandemic recovery in China. Image
Read 5 tweets

With inflation soaring the past two years, this term is being thrown around quite a bit recently.

And people are starting to wonder: Could the USD hyperinflate?

Time for a Currency 🧵👇
🤔 What is hyperinflation?

First, hyperinflation is when a currency experiences extraordinary and accelerating rates of inflation

The currency's value falls so quickly it becomes virtually worthless

So, people resort to using alternative forms of money or bartering.
Though incredibly subjective, the academic definition for hyperinflation is when a country experiences inflation rates above 50% per month. Not before that.

49% = “regular inflation” and 50% = “hyperinflation”

Got it. 🤡
Read 47 tweets
The #silver market has fundamentally changed due to the Mexican gov's anti-mining rules.

First, remember that according to the @SilverInstitute, silver is already in a 24% supply deficit: Image
So where does supply come from? Mexico. Image
It's worse than 23% of supply. Most PRIMARY silver mines (not copper mines where you stumble into some silver) are in Mexico.
Read 11 tweets
This is the path the Roman empire went down. Reduce the metal content of the coins ... make the money worthless.

This is late stage empire type of stuff.

None of own enough #gold and #silver.
Get it while you still can. Image
Quarters until 1964 were 90% silver and 10% copper.

Quarters now are 91.67% copper and 8.33% nickel.

So now even that is getting too expensive for them and they want to use even cheaper metals to make our coins.

Next step is just all digital, zero metal.
Worthless currency.
Read 4 tweets
The White House insists, ‘no’, the Fed muses, ‘maybe’, and bond markets say, ‘yes’

But who's right? Are we headed for a recession or not?

Time for a macro 🧵👇
🧐 What is a Recession?

Let’s start with the basics, shall we?

What is a recession, and before predicting any, how can we tell that we are, in fact, in one?
Well, using various economic definitions and descriptions, a recession is simply a period of economic decline lasting at least six months

Indicators of a recession include:
• a decrease in GDP,
• rising unemployment,
• and reduced spending by consumers and businesses.
Read 37 tweets
It's impossible to retweet this too many times.
- The #RoadOfDeath And a #DarkPlace | Apr 8
@POTUS @vonderleyen @ZelenskyyUa Image
@POTUS @vonderleyen @ZelenskyyUa #Rand Co | Jan 25
- 'The key objective described in the doc is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent'
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
Read 13 tweets
2016 | This #silver rhyton discovered at #Deylaman, Northern #Iran. The inscription as well as leading art #historians identify the #artefact as representing #Durga #Mahishasuramardini

Interestingly, it gives new insights into the high-quality production of silver icons
Its provenance is taken to be in Eastern #Afghanistan It was looted during the #Arab #Muslim raids on #Shahi and #Zunbil kingdoms of South Eastern Afghanistan in the latter half of seventh century. Its provenance beyond the #Hindu Kush is not surprising as #archaeology attests to
Its provenance is taken to be in Eastern #Afghanistan It was looted during the #Arab #Muslim raids on #Shahi and #Zunbil kingdoms of South Eastern Afghanistan in the latter half of seventh century. Its provenance beyond the #Hindu Kush is not surprising as #archaeology attests to
Read 8 tweets

Net positions of commercials is ranging, while open interest rises, which indicates they predominantly open positions compared to closing contracts. Also, opened long and short contracts are equal, in terms of amount.

1/9 Image
We observe huge drop in open interest, during consolidation market, as the net positions of commercial were increasing. This is cleary seen in the blue box.

Huge drop (15% or more) in open interest during consolidation market is the big indication of where smart money reset themselves, in terms of hedging programs. SMT inbetween them robustly supports this idea. Meaning that FX is verye likely bullish, till the next quarter

Read 9 tweets
Another Fed Meeting, another decision based on flawed metrics. One of them is the new CPI. Or shall I say the *New New CPI*?

Because the calculation has been sneakily adjusted again recently, and yes, it matters. Why and how?

Time for an inflation 🧵👇
🧐 Current CPI

First, for those who are new to the whole Fed Shell Game, or if you need a little refresher, a quick review of CPI:

The Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, is the benchmark for U.S. inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS).
You may have noticed recent controversy about the accuracy of the CPI and whether the BLS is understating inflation

People ask every time a new CPI reading is released: how can the prices of groceries, cars, houses, be so inflated, yet the CPI rises only a fraction of that?
Read 41 tweets
Continues to blow my mind how ST people are. #gold now very overbought/extended while up 1.5% w/#silver & $GDX down 7% last 6 wks.

Puts far from getting "crushed" despite this move. Not seeing any reason to exit or go long, based on my time horizon.

And #FOMC next wk. Patience/ Image
Meantime, I'll let the gold bugs gloat at my expense. Lord knows they don't get to do it often. Have a few days of fun amidst last 2yrs of losses.

Some context, $GDX/ $GLD couldn't make a close above where it was just 2 days ago. 1 day is not a trend, zoom out & look at the avg/ Image
What I see is panic buying in #gold, the safe haven. #silver & $GDX feels like all short covering B4 weekend. Short covering is great ST, but will it carry over to new longs buying at these levels, fade quickly?

Have fun over ydays ST pennies. I'm thinking medium term dollars/
Read 4 tweets
#Biden backs strength of #banking system after collapse of #SVB, #SignatureBank | Mar 13
- When fed auths bailed out depositors in insolvent lenders SVB (NASDAQ:SIVB) and #SignatureBank on Monday,
Joe sought to reassure the public Image
#Ukraine-#BanderasBox opened.
#RAND Co | Jan 25
- There is an urgent need for #resources to flow into the national econ, especially the #banking system. Only European countries bound by #EU and #NATO commitments will be able to provide them
#SVB #SignatureBank #BanderasBox.
#Rand Co | Jan 25
- The key objective is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
Read 38 tweets
🗓 Daily #Macro & Market Recap 📰 Let's dive into a quick thread recapping some of today's market moving events 🗞, data 📝, & charts 📈📉 for Friday (03/03/23)… 🧵/👇🏼

$SPY $SPX ⬆️✅
$QQQ $NDX ⬆️✅
$DIA $DJIA ⬆️✅
$IWM $RUT ⬆️✅

#stocks #StockMarket #bonds #macro
1/🧵 Daily #StockMarket Sector Performance:

🍽 $XLP ⬆️✅
🏥 $XLV ⬆️✅
🏘 $XLRE ⬆️✅
📡 $XLC ⬆️✅
🛢 $XLE ⬆️✅
🏭 $XLI ⬆️✅
🤖 $XLK ⬆️✅
🏨 $XLY ⬆️✅
🏦 $XLF ⬆️✅
🪵 $XLB ⬆️✅
⚡️ $XLU ⬆️✅
2/🧵 Daily 🇺🇸 🏦 Treasury Market & Currency Performance: 💵💴💶💷

$DXY ⬆️✅
$TLT ⬆️✅
$HYG ⬆️✅
3mo ⬆️✅
2yr ⬇️🔻
10yr ⬆️✅
30yr ⬆️✅

#bonds #interestrates #Currencies #macro
Read 4 tweets
Thought of the day: Return compounding is all about timeframes in #cyclicals, 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years with 1-2 year waiting between reinvestment = 1000x over 17-19 years. Are you formulating your compounding plan?
Our working example:

$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months

deployed into:

$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months

deployed into:

Unknown at this time = 8x

Total return = >1000x
Documented is previous tweets
Read 15 tweets
A bear market can be a confusing and challenging time for #CryptoInvestor. In this thread, we'll explore the definition of a #bearmarket in the crypto world and how to invest during one. $BTC $ETH $QUACK #Cryptos

🧵👇 Image
1/10 Definition: A bear market in crypto is a period of declining crypto prices, typically lasting several months to a few years. It's called a "bear market" because bears tend to attack downward. $QUACK
2/10 Why do bear markets happen in crypto? Bear markets in crypto are often triggered by economic downturns, market corrections, or negative news and sentiment. $QUACK
Read 12 tweets
As #silver sentiment collapses again and the equities have been left for dead, let's look at the big picture.

#silver is a supply deficit play. 3 things to know:

1) 73% of mined silver is a byproduct of copper/zinc/lead/gold. CapEx is declining in 2023. /1
In other words, the companies producing silver don't care about silver. There won't be a supply response to higher silver demand.

Also, there are very few primary silver miners as AISC is about $20 and high-quality deposits are very rare. /2
As a result, silver supply peaked in 2016, driven by the 2010-2013 metals CapEx binge.

(Data from SilverInsititute) /3
Read 9 tweets
Whether you like it or not, we're in an #economic #reset & nothing can stop it

The #macro chart of the #USA #economy reveals a crucial insight everyone should pay attention to

US #GDP & M2 money supply in #USD tn

Read on...

#tradingview chart👉

1/🧵 Image
Untill 2011, money supply M2 consistently remained below 60% of #GDP

#Growth in M2 kept pace with GDP growth

Enabling low #inflation secular growth #economy

Despite popular #fintwit narrative, even GFC of 2008 did not upset M2 GDP⚖️balance

This is what GFC did...

2/🧵 Image
Average #GDP growth was 4% but M2 grew at 6%

Since 1960, this is the 1st time M2 increased faster than GDP

Still in 2011, M2 was less than historical average 60% of GDP

The story gets interesting for #investor #Traders #students #everyone

Then came the opportunity...

3/🧵 Image
Read 9 tweets
1/ #srebro #silver
Na zachowywanie się cenowe srebra w 2022 r. można spojrzeć dwojako. Jeżeli zrobić to w kontekście rozdmuchanych nadziei od Wall Street Bets (Zniszczyć Comex) i wszystkich survivalistów którzy chcą płacić srebrem po "nieuchronnym załamaniu systemu finansowego"
no to tak... najgorsze są wybujałe i niespełnione nadzieje.

Jeżeli spojrzeć okiem traderskim, no to na ruchach srebra można było zarobić. Aprecjacja w H1, potem spadki Maj-Listopad i wzrosty sezonowe od Listopada. A jeżeli spojrzeć przez pryzmat długiego terminu no to cena
mogła zawieść. Nie ukrywajmy - w perspektywie r/r nie było dużych zmian. W perspektywie r/r inne aktywa dały zarobić - jak choćby pompa na soku pomarańczowym. Ale dla hodlerów srebra i złota, chyba jednak inne parametry czasowe mają znaczenie...

Jak srebro poradziło sobie
Read 40 tweets
He's often called Canada's Warren Buffett

Jimmy Pattison is a shrewd CEO & value investor who built a $16 BILLION fortune (Forbes)

But, Jimmy made & lost a killing in the #silver market, turning $25K to $78M in a few yrs before losing it all in a few months

Or so he thought🧵:  Jim Pattison by Bob Hewitt
There's a joke in mining that if goldbugs are crazy, then silver enthusiasts are truly deranged.

The boldest silver investors ever were oil billionaire brothers, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert Hunt, who tried to corner the market in the late '70s as a hedge against inflation.
This sent silver prices soaring from $6 per ounce a year earlier to $50 per ounce in January 1980. However, the US government stepped in and the market crashed quickly. The Hunt Brothers lost an estimated $1.75 billion and faced numerous lawsuits and legal battles.
Read 14 tweets
This is a 🧵 on my campaign for President of the United States (Republican).

I am heavily shadowbanned and encourage you to turn on notifications and share this tweet 1/n

We have 12-36 months to halt a globalist takeover of America.

#Day2024 Image

When @realDonaldTrump borrowed Ronald Reagan’s MAGA tagline, I thought we might get Reagan’s 1984. Instead we got Orwell’s.

#Day2024 Image
3/n Under #Trump, 40% of all US Dollars were printed (inflation), $7 trillion was added to the debt (more than any other President in one term), and two bioweapons were unleashed (#covid and the #vaccine) - both funded by the US Government.

#Day2024 Image
Read 15 tweets
(1/16) Today again a more theoretical thread about #Germanic #history. It is about a theory of the origin of the first Germanic major #tribes:
the #Iron and #Amber theory!

(Many used images are from external sources, which I will gladly share if needed.) ImageImage
(2/16) But let's start from the beginning. What is a #Germanic "major #tribe" anyway?
Around the year 0, hundreds of small #tribes lived in #Germania. About 400 years later, however, they were seemingly replaced by a few large tribes, such as the #Goths, #Franks, or #Alemanni. Image
(3/16) #Researchers therefore asked themselves early on how this development had come about. It was usually assumed that #Germanic #tribes living near the #borders of the #Roman #Empire formed #raiding parties, in order to be able to undertake more successful #raids. ImageImage
Read 16 tweets
Two years ago on 1/27/21 I posted my #silversqueeze post on Wallstreetbets

It was a Wednesday night in the middle of the GameStop controversy

Four days later #silver was squeezing

Robinhood banned buying of PSLV

A few days later $SLV changed their prospectus

Crazy times
2 months later the #LBMA admitted they over represented their inventories by 110m ounces of silver

A month after that they released a report saying they came roughly 2 weeks from running out of silver

@CFTCbehnam admitted they “had to tamp down” the silver run up
Jeff Currie of Goldman went on CNBC and Bloomberg saying there was no risk of running out of silver and that 50 billion ounces were available

A massive misrepresentation when the LBMA came within a couple hundred million ounces of running out
Read 8 tweets
1/Why are #gold and #silver inventory levels at the #Comex continually declining?
Is it due to overwhelming physical demand? If so, why are premiums on physical products collapsing?
Likewise, if demand is falling, why are prices rising?

Let’s dig in…..
2/Gold and silver demand has been strong throughout 2022. Futures action on global exchanges has seen large buyers in early 2023. This has forced prices higher. With prices higher, we have seen a noticeable slowdown for physical products.
3/With the addition of new 2023 dated coins, this over supply has collapsed premiums. There is no shortage at the moment of physical inventory.
Read 13 tweets
1) Total global ETF holdings of #gold has gone sideways despite gold +19% since early Nov.

System akin to compressed spring. Less pressure?
Spring bounces.

Δ largely $GLD driven. What if US investors traders actually buy?

1 more chart today.

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GDX #Commodities
2) Cost of $SLV puts vs calls (3M 25 delta) 10D MA not budging despite #silver +33% in several M.

Incredible (to me). And never happened in history of this data.

Whenever silver rose as much since '15 secular low, cost of calls shifted ~8-10 (implied ...
3) vol) points higher than cost of puts.

Even smaller rallies (Mar '16 Apr '20 Nov '21 etc) produced a big shift of > 4 points wrt cost of calls vs puts.

So this one time we (options traders) refuse to fall for it and pay up for calls.

Anyways physical analogies are not ...
Read 5 tweets

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