Thread by @laurnorman

A couple of new tidbits on #IranTalks. My understanding is that while #Iran is seeking a change to the safeguards text the EU offered, that's mainly on intended date to close probe by Confirmation Day. It is not explicitly seeking upfront guarantee that probe will be closed. -1-

Separately, my understanding is that all excess centrifuges of type mentioned as permissible in deal (IR-1, IR-2, IR-2M, IR-4/6/8) will be removed and kept under seal whole. Only the experimental centrifuges of other types (IR-9s) will be effectively dismantled.-2-

Also interesting: @iaeaorg will only have 60 days (confirmation day to reimplementation day) to examine 18+ months of camera footage and monitoring data from Iran that they didn't receive since Feb 2021. And reconstruct what happened at facilities where cameras removed in June-3-

Iran could allow an earlier release of the footage. But don't hold your breath. -4-

And Iran will only have to remove centrifuges and infrastructure in the 45 days between Reimplementation Day and Conclusion day at the end of the 165 day process. That's when economic benefits are supposed to start flowing. -5-

Source expressed concern about these arrangements. The deal as nearly concluded in March based on the benefits/costs for each side at that point. Since then, Iran produced unknown numbers of advanced machines which won't be dismantled. -6-

That will reduce Breakout time and increase Iran's future capabilities. That's changing the Balance of the agreement. Iran would no doubt argue that sanctions have continued & thus their costs increased. But Iran can sell produced oil. Centrifuges remain in tact.-7-

Also a rough source calculation of enriched production capacity if all new centrifuges (again numbers unknown because no cameras/data) come on line from source that Iran could produce 1000 kg/month of 5%. That's around 600 kg of weapons grade fuel. Enough for many nukes/year.-8-