Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Moldova_Russia: It is something that not many are willing to admit, but the Moldovan government is blackmailing Russia to ensure its political survival and lower the pressure from Moscow. I have raised this point several times and I will briefly explain it again (long THREAD:

1) Last year the govt signed an agreement with Russia, which was recently praised again by President Sandu for the good price formula (in short: the price of gas prevails in summer and global oil price in winter); 2) The Moldovan govt is unwilling to implement ⤵️

last year's agreements with Gazprom and requests further delays in the audit of the gas supplier controlled by Russia (50% - MoldovaGaz). The audit is essential to solve the problem of the debt of $700 million that Russia demands from Moldova and had to be done before May;⤵️

3) Despite criticism from the Moldovan govt, the gas price paid by Moldova corresponds to the agreement signed by the same government last year. Using the anti-Russian card is useful for the govt because the EU can justify⤵️

its aid to Moldova (which is valuable but still insufficient: less than 150 million euros in 2021-22, when Moldova paid around 30 million dollars for August; 4) The govt is trying to buy time regarding the audit and put the Russians in a difficult position.⤵️

If Moscow decides to cancel the contracts citing non-compliance by Moldova, gas cuts should follow. But that would also mean that the Transnistrian region will be in danger because it depends on Russian gas for economic activity; 5) The Moldovan govt is confident that ⤵️

its Plan B will work. It included the purchase of gas from Romania but at prices (European spot market) that are almost double the price that Russia now offers to Moldova; 6) The Moldovan govt openly says that Transnistria will have to pay the market price like the rest of⤵️

Moldova, if the gas is no longer obtained from Russia. The Russians tried to create a separate company to supply gas to Transnistria independently, but failed; 7) Now, Russia is in a dilemma: if it cut the gas flows to Moldova because⤵️

it does not fulfill the contract (which would provoke protests for the benefit of the pro-Russian and anti-government forces alike), it will expose Transnistria to an “economic”. winter) that can end with the collapse of the separatist regime.⤵️

Moldova is also taking a risk because it buys 80% of its energy from Transnistria and this energy is produced with Russian gas. So the Moldovan govt (Sandu-PAS) bets in a risky way and the stakes are high for all sides. END

I explained the context around the 2021 contract with Gazprom in this piece👇

https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1453610905086922757

Moldova's confidence to push Russia back could also lie in this year's integration of the country into ENTSO-E (European network), along with Ukraine. That could secure power for a short time in the event of a sudden shortage due to supply disruptions from Transnistria.