#Russia_China: When Putin spoke with Jinping today, he meant to show the following: 1) Russia is not "isolated"; 2) It is treated with “respect” by big powers; 3) Western economic ties can be replaced with non-Western partnerships; 4) Finally, Russia's strategic goal is to⤵️
accelerate the creation of the Eurasian pole in a multipolar order around the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership, including as a way to escape responsibility for the aggression against Ukraine. Other aspects seem to be of secondary importance.⤵️
Only Putin mentioned Ukraine while thanking China for being neutral. The growing bilateral trade was emphasized by numbers that almost tell the West that Russia has trading partners. ⤵️
Jinping reiterated China's interest in strengthening cooperation with Russia, confirming that the two countries have strategic communication and coordination in international affairs. He did not say a word about Ukraine, referring only to Taiwan.
I do use the discourse analysis a lot. Contrary to other opinions, I find too much evidence of Chinese political alignment in favor of Russia and vice versa. China may not openly help to circumvent Western sanctions, but its trade helps Russia and allows buying discounted gas.
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#Ukraine: We have abundant discursive evidence showing that the Russian state is not preventing genocidal discourse within the Russian vox populi and among the most influential groups of elites. Targeting civilians from the first day of the war & encouraging genocidal speeches⤵️
of “destroying the Ukrainian nation” is a direct reminder of the Nazi actions of extermination of the Jewish people. We have facts on the table: 1) deliberate activities of the Russian state against civilians and state in Ukraine comparable to terrorist actions; ⤵️
2) hate-driven speeches on TV channels and social networks about wiping the Ukrainian state off the map or destroying it, dividing it, etc. - which can qualify as genocidal discourse. Indeed, it might not fall under the official definition of genocide, ⤵️
#Russia: The situation around CSTO raises several questions: 1) On the one hand, the organization was instrumental in saving the political regime from mass protests and an alleged coup in Kazakhstan (this year); 2) On the other hand, the organization seems powerless to offer⤵️
security guarantees to Armenia against Azerbaijan, a former member of the CSTO (until 1999). It is also affected by military hostilities between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, two other member states. My friend @bob_deen mentioned yesterday that the CSTO appears to be brain dead.⤵️
The two situations mentioned above can be used as an argument to prove that the organization is not fulfilling its purpose. However, I see the causes in Russia, which wages a war against Ukraine that has implications for Russia's geopolitical relevance within CSTO:⤵️
#Turkey_Russia: The race to reduce the price of Russian gas began: Erdogan has announced that Turkey wants a 25% discount on the price for pipeline gas. On top of that, he wants the payment to be made in troubled Turkish lira to save the country's dollar reserve.⤵️
Putin has yet to respond, but he is weakened and too reliant on Turkey to simply reject Erdogan's request. If Russia makes gas cheaper, then others from the Global South will flock with a similar request (Russian budget is already loosing revenues because of the ⤵️
self-initiated gas war against the EU).Abandoning Erdogan doesn't help either. That means a middle ground must be found to keep both parties happy. It may be that Russia limits the discount to 10-15% and ties it to some conditions, such as accepting payment via Mir payment ⤵️
#Armenia: Pashinyan explores two ways to stop Azerbaijan's attacks: 1) He is pressuring Putin to act and show the relevance of Russia in this whole situation (NB: the current hostilities are endangering Russia's positions more than before). The CSTO evaluation⤵️
mission (without observing or anything like that) should have arrived in Armenia. And still this does not change the behavior of Baku. 2) Along with Macron, Pashinyan is promoting the idea of bringing in UN peacekeepers, which will officially mean that Russia's role as a⤵️
security guarantor is coming to an end (both Armenia and Azerbaijan would be pleased with the departure of the Russians). The UN-related track may be blocked by Putin, who faces delegitimization in Armenia if he does anything. He has forced Pashinyan and Aliyev⤵️
#Moldova: The latest polls reveal good and bad news (iData, 3% margin of error). These are my highlights: 1) The ruling party (PAS) remains the second voting option for potential early elections (June: 22.6%; Sept: 19.4%), after the pro-Russian Bloc of Socialists & Communists⤵️
(June: 26.3 %; Sept: 20.8%). The third most popular party is the pro-Russian Shor Party (June: 12.8%; Sept: 16.7%), led by fugitive businessman Ilan Shor (based in Israel) who is stringing the pulls to arrange mass anti-governmental protests on 18 September. He is capitalizing ⤵️
on protest sentiments in society, attracting the most radical voters of the Socialist and Communist Bloc and the society as a whole. Together, the pro-Russian opposition forces could win up to 67 mandates in the 101-seat parliament (June: 64 seats; Sept: 67 seats). ⤵️
#Russia_Ukraine: Russian propaganda talking heads increasingly justify Russia's need to destroy Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Without even understanding what they are talking about, they argue that civilian critical infrastructure cannot be separated from military.⤵️
They show a lack of elementary knowledge about critical infrastructure, which in reality are all the assets that make a country livable for the population and manageable by the government.⤵️
But I guess the Russian propagandists don't care, they want to justify deliberate military attacks on critical infrastructure this fall and winter. I was writing in March that Ukraine should be helped to protect its critical infrastructure. ⤵️