#EU_Gas: The price fell by 50% compared to August. Now the price on the European spot market is below €1,900 per 1,000 m3. This will surely stabilize the market and reduce inflationary pressure. However, in the short and medium term, this does not solve the structural⤵️
problems of the larger EU economies that were running on cheap gas. Moreover, further spikes in price are still possible due to continued gas shortage as LNG production comes from long-term contracts and production capacities. Therefore, LNG imports cannot completely replace⤵️
Russia's gas pipeline in subsequent years. The EU still relies on the Norwegian gas pipeline which now imports more than Russia, mainly because Russian gas stopped flowing through NS1 and other routes (except for part of the pipeline that crosses Ukraine).⤵️
At the moment, the EU has 85% of its gas storages full, but this percentage is not uniform across the union. The energy security of the EU looks better, but it depends on the temperatures during the winter and the solidarity within the EU in saving energy.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Sep 20
#Russia: Putin was shamed by Erdogan, Jinping and Modi (the way it was done varies, but the outcome is the same). He told everyone that he wants to “end it” (поставить конец). That means exactly what Putin signaled today: another offensive and that, in his opinion, should⤵️
be the decisive one to force Ukraine to capitulate. What the West is saying: 1) Borrell proudly claims that the EU is solving crises around the world, but Ukraine is still on top. A final decision on the EU Military Assistance Mission in Ukraine has not yet been taken (too ⤵️
slow). 2) Macron is again with his hands on the phone looking to talk to Putin on the phone. It’s unclear whether Macron or Scholz realized that "telephone diplomacy-deterrence" doesn't work on Russia and that it has never efficiently prevented Putin from committing aggression.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Sep 20
#Ukraine: Pseudo-referendums on independence are scheduled on “DNR” and “LNR” in the last week of September (if putting down the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive doesn't ruin the plans). Two main reasons I believe they still want to do that:⤵️
1) to prevent further demoralization in light of the Ukrainian de-occupation campaign; 2) change the reality on the ground by annexing occupied Donbass, which could allow finding recruits/soldiers more easily, as they will fight for the “Russian lands”/Ukrainian occupied regions.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 20
#Turkey_Russia: One of the most complex and efficient foreign policies towards Russia has (apparently) only Turkey. Here are my main points: 1) Erdogan may be hanging out with Putin, but he is also openly criticizing Russia's aggression against Ukraine; ⤵️
2) Due to Russia's isolation from Western sanctions and the rest who distance themselves from themselves, Erdogan remains close to Putin, calling him his "friend", but also holding him responsible for Ukraine (2022) and Crimea (2014 ). Furthermore, he wants Putin to return all⤵️
occupied lands to Ukraine, including Crimea. No other international leader has this ability to manoeuvre between rocks and water like Erdogan or strategic interest (referring to Xi Jinping's laissez-faire approach); 3) Erdogan is calculating his steps, without⤵️
Read 9 tweets
Sep 19
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: There is an increase in requests to sanction Azerbaijan for attacks on Armenia. However, this is very unlikely to happen. Here I explain why: 1) The military hostilities between the two countries have decades of history. So there is a kind of strange⤵️
normalization of the idea that there is a war between two nations in the South Caucasus. The shift from such a deeply entrenched narrative often follows some tectonic shifts (recall the hard work of Ukrainian diplomacy and civil society to convince the West to pre-emptively⤵️
sanction Russia, which, unfortunately, happened after the invasion); 2) The EU wants to buy more Azeri gas. von der Leyen called Azerbaijan a reliable partner (harm to the EU). Baku is also important for the supply of oil to Turkey, etc. Both Georgia (which is⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Sep 19
#Belarus: Lukashenko accused the US of provoking wars around the world. He said that after Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltic countries, Poland or Romania could follow. EU countries are already sanctioning Belarus from 2020-21 and are somewhat immune to Lukashenko's⤵️
aggressive speech. The situation is different for Moldova, which does not align itself with the sanctions against Belarus. The country's MFA condemned Lukashenko's remarks about the US and summoned the Belarusian ambassador to Chisinau. This is quite a rare reaction⤵️
of the Moldovan diplomacy that stresses openly that Lukashenko's statements are disinformation and that he is promoting Russia's war against Ukraine. It is remarkable that the ruling party in Moldova does not miss any opportunity to show its political alignment with the West.⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Sep 19
#Ukraine: Energy Minister Galushchenko warns that a potential nuclear catastrophe is becoming more likely as Russia strikes missile targets near Southern Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant (in Mykolaiv). The rackets hit an area of ​​300 m near the nuclear reactors, causing damage⤵️
to an electrostation that supplies electricity to the plant's infrastructure. This is the second Ukrainian nuclear power plant directly affected by Russian aggression. In my opinion, by targeting critical infrastructure on the part of Russia, it tries to:⤵️
1) redirect attention to other regions: classic tactic of diverting attention and with the priorities aimed at slowing down the counteroffensive; 2) provoke a new wave of Ukrainian IDPs and refugees fleeing abroad; 3) cause damage to the Ukrainian economy by exhausting its⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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