Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Armenia_Azerbaijan: There is an increase in requests to sanction Azerbaijan for attacks on Armenia. However, this is very unlikely to happen. Here I explain why: 1) The military hostilities between the two countries have decades of history. So there is a kind of strange⤵️

normalization of the idea that there is a war between two nations in the South Caucasus. The shift from such a deeply entrenched narrative often follows some tectonic shifts (recall the hard work of Ukrainian diplomacy and civil society to convince the West to pre-emptively⤵️

sanction Russia, which, unfortunately, happened after the invasion); 2) The EU wants to buy more Azeri gas. von der Leyen called Azerbaijan a reliable partner (harm to the EU). Baku is also important for the supply of oil to Turkey, etc. Both Georgia (which is⤵️

dependent on Azeri energy sources) and Turkey will surely not fall in line with sanctions if they come up in any way. The US might intend to do that, but again without the EU, US sanctions will be only partial. This will also bring Azerbaijan closer to Russia.⤵️

So, in conclusion, I would say that Armenia and her ally should focus on the following: 3) Aliyev could be sanctioned individually for being involved in corruption cases, if such allegations are really substantiated.⤵️

Let's not forget shout the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia. von der Leyen promised to extend the mandate of the EU Magnitsky Law to include cross-border/int. corruption perpetrators.⤵️

That could be used to apply individual sanctions to Aliyev and his system because they go after the opposition (including those trying to hide in Georgia). This requires a lot of determination and brave people in the European Parliament and not only.⤵️

https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1338754279650304003

Azerbaijan has oil money and has successfully forged friendships in the region and beyond. END.