Olga Ivshina Profile picture
Sep 20 11 tweets 4 min read
Estimates of the Russian soldiers KIA vary greatly. But it’s not only the total number of losses which is important, but also what kind of specialists were killed. BBC established that Russia has over 900 elite specialists, whose training took years of effort, and mlns of $.
Combined armed units of the Russian military have proven unprepared for assault operations. As a result, tasks that are generally assigned to infantrymen have had to be carried out by special forces, marines, and paratroopers.
E.g. it was reported that #GRU Major Andrey Kunakov died in #Mariupol while ‘sweeping the street’. Usually, street checks in occupied settlements are carried out by second echelon subdivisions. Throwing elite intelligence officers into such missions is strange, to say the least.
Overal BBC managed to confirm the death of 151 servicemen from the GRU. 22% were officers. These figures do not reflect the real number of losses, but they to estimate how many special forces troops are missing from units of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine.
The loss of special forces officers may be the most painful and difficult to replace.If the commander of a GRU company is killed, he can only be replaced by an officer of the same military specialisation. And it takes 8 years to train one
We also managed to confirm death of 245 members of the Russian National Guard. Most were SF operators or members special police units such as SOBR and OMON. And again 25% are officers
Both GRU and Rosgvardia SF operators were assigned to tasks which are atypical to them - because many other army units have shown themselves unprepared to participate in battle. And this led to additional losses.
Judging by a monument on the ground of 25th SF unit "Bars' from Kazan, the detachment has lost as many people during the six months of war in Ukraine as it did during 10 years of armed conflict in Chechnya.
We also noticed sufficient losses among elite paratroopers and marines units. E.g. fccording to open source data, the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment from Kostroma lost (as both killed and injured) at least half the estimated strength of the 331st regiment at the start of the war.
3rd GRU Brigade lost at least 47 soldiers. And for every Russian KIA during the war in Ukraine there are approximately 3.5 wounded. So up to half of the reconnaissance companies of this brigade have been put out of action.
Russia may find more new soldiers among prisoners, veterans and older males with low income. But they can barely substitute the loss of all those elite fighters. More data and analysis can be found in my article at bbcrussian.substack.com/p/russia-elite…

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More from @oivshina

Aug 24
Russian Ministry of Defence is trying to put a tap on all info about problems of the Russian army in #Ukraine. But dead soldiers keep telling their stories-and that narrative is very different from Moscow is trying to show. Here is what we found. Based on a study of 5700+ cases
BBC's analysis suggests particularly heavy losses among junior officers. Overall, officers constitute 17% of Russian fatalities. But data suggests, that junior officers in particular are 3 times more likely to die than their subordinates.
Reasons: in the Russian army, jn officers have to make important decisions to direct the course of combat. Majority of them are very young – often promoted to lieutenant at the age of 21. With that little experience they have to find out how to achieve the goals set by generals.
Read 11 tweets
May 31
What do we know about Russian military losses? June update. BBC keeps compiling a list of Russian soldiers killed in action. It already has 2 times more names that Russian MOD has acknowledged. Thread.
We managed to identify 3052 Russian soldiers who were killed in Ukraine and buried in Russia. Real losses are definitely higher. That's why we also try to examine cemeteries in towns and cities of Russia. Some of them already have separate rows for servicemen killed in Ukraine
E.g. studying a cemetery in Ulyanovsk we found 42 graves of soldiers killed after the start of the invasion. 21 of them (50%) were never mentioned anywhere. In Kazan and Stavropol cemeteries -30% of names were previously unknown. Same trend at other 9 cemeteries we studied
Read 18 tweets
Apr 13
What do we know about #Russian army conscripts deployed to #Ukraine? Information about that is very limited and patchy, but here are some facts (guy on the left in this photo- Nikolay Polshikov, Russian conscript, #POW in Ukraine) #RussianUkrainianWar Image
According to #Russian law a conscript can sign a contract and after 3 months of service. After that service in the army can become his paid job. However even before this war, there were many stories about conscripts allegedly being pressured to sign a contract.
“Each unit has a plan - how many contracts must be signed each year. But some vacancies remain open for a while - so officers in charge often trick conscripts into signing a contract or simply pressure and bully them” - told me one former officer.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 12
What do we know about background and social position of #Russian soldiers, who are deployed in #Ukraine? BBC analysed publicly available info about 1083 Russian servicemen, who were killed in action. Here are some tendencies were found out. Thread
Regions that reported the highest number of the losses are so called depressed or semi depressed, ie areas with high unemployment and a low standard of living. In Dagestan (93 reported deaths) or Buryatia (53 rep. deaths) it’s very hard to find a job (let alone well paid job)
In #Dagestan unemployment rate is 15% (compared to average 4% in #Russia), average salary - 400 USD. If one joins army as private they can around 500 USD, but army also provide them food, uniform and a place to live. So a bigger part of the salary remains in your pocket
Read 15 tweets
Apr 11
Putin's spokesman said Russia “have suffered significant losses of troops". BBC was able to verify identities of the 1,083 Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine (they were reported by local officials or media in Russia). So what do we see and know? Thread
Even if we talk about confirmed losses only - there is evidence that Russia has lost some of its best specialists, incl. elite spec. forces operators, highly skilled fighter pilots and some experienced commanders.
217 out of 1083 confirmed losses - ie over 20% - are officers. This includes 10 colonels, 20 lieutenant colonels, 31 majors and 155 junior officers (ranging from second lieutenant to captain).\3
Read 12 tweets
Mar 28
What do we definitely know about #Russian military casualties in #Ukraine? BBC in-depth research of verified military losses found some interesting tendencies \1
Roughly 20% of all verified losses are officers. The research was based on analysis of official statements by Russian governors, local media reports, posts by official accounts of universities, schools etc.
20% is a huge number. But it doesn't mandatory mean that every 5th Russian servicemen killed on a battlefield is an officer. May be officers are removed from the battlefield more quickly or may be they are given more prominent place in local news announcements
Read 26 tweets

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