The speech from Putin today is a careful balancing act of a leader under pressure, who is trying to: 1. please hardliners and Russian milbloggers; 2. not displease the general populace; 3. appease the military; 4. give the impression he is not losing a war. 1/20 🧵
2/ The full text is worth a read. It demonstrates the range of interests that Putin is appealing to. It is also Putin’s version of a war update to the Russian people. en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
3/ He describes the importance of the referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. This is nothing more than fig leaves for the Russians to claim their raping, pillaging and murdering thugs in #Ukraine are ‘defending Russia’
4/ The speech also refers to industrial production, noting “heads of defence industry enterprises will be directly responsible for attaining the goals of increasing the production of weapons and military equipment.”
5/ Also, lots of “it’s all NATO’s fault” with a measure of “it is also the fault of western elites”.
6/ On war aims, Putin has held the course: “The main goal of this operation, which is to liberate the whole of Donbass, remains unaltered.”
7/ On mobilisation - it is interesting that he doesn’t describe it as his order, rather “I find it necessary to support the proposal of the Defence Ministry and the General Staff on partial mobilisation”. This sets up the military for eventual blame in the war.
8/ The partial mobilisation is unlikely to appease hardliners and will probably scare the general population. Perhaps this is why airfares out of Russia are selling so quickly.
9/ Putin also addresses the poor state of proxy forces from Donetsk and Luhansk. “Special attention must be given to organising the supply of military and other equipment for volunteer units and Donbass people’s militia.”
10/ How long will this mobilisation process take? That is difficult to know, however troops being prepared to hold ground for the coming winter can be equipped, trained and dispatched more quickly than those for offensive operations.
11/ Putin would have clearly felt pressure from the military to initiate this call up. The majority of the Russian army has been committed to this war. Russian Army leaders have watched their army slowly but surely disappear.
12/ They needed to replenish manpower if they were to just hold onto territory already taken. Not only have they lost huge numbers of personnel killed and wounded, there will have been other losses from accidents and psychological issues.
13/ And those that remain in Ukraine have been in combat for nearly 8 months. Given combat performance degrades from the 3-4 month mark, this is an exhausted force which needs rotation. Such rotation was impossible without this partial mobilisation.
14/ The numbers being called up are not sufficient to make any decisive contribution or change the outcome of the war. Ukraine has mobilised many more personnel. This is more about rotation and replacements rather that building some huge new offensive capability for Russia.
15/ Which all tells us a couple of things. First, Putin and his military privately accept that they could lose this war. The personnel and industrial measures described in the speech are clear indicators of this.
16/ Second, Putin is not stepping away from this war. He has initiated this risky measure in the hope he can prolong the war and out wait western nations, so they tire of supporting Ukraine. So far, this has to worked.
17/ Third, Putin has listened to Xi and Modi last week. He didn’t take away that he shouldn’t be at war. His takeaway was that he must win this or his position relative to China and India will be greatly degraded.
18/ Fourth, western deterrence measures remain important elements of this war. Putin continues to rattle the nuclear sabre in the speech. “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country …we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us.”
19/ Fifth, it will take some time to raise these reservists and then deploy them to #Ukraine. This means the Ukrainians have an opportunity to continue making progress in their offensives against the Russians.
20/ Finally, Putin’s gamble here prolongs the agony of the Ukrainian people without providing any real chance of a Russian victory. Ultimately this announcement doesn’t change the prospect of a Ukrainian victory. But it means many more people will die before that occurs. End.
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