Thread by @CasMudde

I am getting a lot of emails about "the rise of the far right in Europe" the last days. That generally means that there are two countries that gained broader attention in which the far right does well. But how significant is this "rise" really? #thread 🧵

In Sweden 🇸🇪, #SwedenDemocrats gained 3% compared to 2018. Taking into account slightly lower turnout, it was actually 2%.

2022: 20.5% x 84.2% = 17.26%
2018: 17.5% x 87.1% = 15.24%

In France, Marine Le Pen gained effectively (% of electorate) just o.6% in 1st round and 4.6% in 2nd round.

2022: 23.2% x 73.7% = 17.2%
2017: 21.3% x 77.8% = 16.6%

2022: 41.5% x 72.0% = 29.9%
2017: 33.9% x 74.6% = 25.3%

In Italy, polls do predict a significant increase of radical right (FdI + Lega): roughly +11%. However, if you look at Right Bloc, and include FI, gains will be closer to 3-4%. And we don't know turnout yet. Not to speak of loss MS5, which had very right-wing campaign in 2018.

Previously, we had serious gains in Portugal (Chega), losses in Slovenia (both SNS out of parliament, SDS out of government!), and insignificant result in Malta.

And this ignore (small) losses for far right in Czechia, Germany, and Norway versus (small) gains in Cyprus and the Netherlands -- Bulgaria is a bit too volatile to include, while Iceland had no far right!

I am excluding the massive victory for Fidesz in Hungary because, as now finally is being acknowledged within the EU too, those elections were not free and fair and Hungary has ceased to be a democracy.

I am not trying to argue that (1) the far right is not on the rise; or (2) the far right is not a major player (and danger) in Europe. Rather, I think media should stop with these opportunistic short-term perspectives ("death" in 2020, "rise" in 2022) and focus on long term!

Moreover, and most importantly, the rise of far-right parties is only part of the story. The facilitating and mainstreaming of far-right parties as well as the adoption of far-right frames and positions by other parties is at least as important and barely addressed in media.

The far right (not "populism") is the main threat to democracies around the world in the early 21st century. It has killed liberal democracy in Hungary (and possibly India), is trying to do so in Brazil, Poland and the US, and is weakening it across the EU.

This deserves and necessitates serious analysis from academics, journalists, and pundits. Cheap sensationalism and opportunistic "change" coverage obscures more than it explains. We need to do better! #TheEnd