First take:

Far-right parties (seem to) underperform in Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania & Sweden... Greece, Netherlands & Spain not remarkable either.

Sure, the far right wins, with new record seats, but no major victory overall. 1. Increase in seats is mainly because the far right did particularly well in a few big countries (France and Italy, to a lesser extent Germany).

A quick #thread to contextualize the current spike in "anti-antisemitism" in much of Western Europe. 🧵 1. In postwar Western Europe, defined by the Holocaust and still deeply colonial, #antisemitism became the main (sole) indicator of racism in general, and the far right in particular.

If PiS is on board with Fidesz joining ECR, this should be done deal and game-changer in European Parliament. 🧵

politico.eu/article/former… 1. Before you continue to read, let me come clean: for months I have been arguing that PiS would not accept Fidesz as long as Ukraine War is salient. So, clearly I am not a sage!

Bart de Wever heeft besloten dat VB-lite niet meer genoeg is om VB te verslaan dus gaat hij nu voor VB-on-steroids. Absoluut verwerpelijke en gevaarlijke uiterst-rechtse propaganda!

op1npo.nl/2023/04/13/bar… Nederlandse “journalisten” verspreiden al jaren onkritisch uiterst rechtse propaganda maar ben meer benieuwd naar wat hun Vlaamse collega’s doen.

I am a deeply melancholic soul. So, here is a #thread 🧵 where I'll post some of my favorite melancholic songs (whenever I hear or remember them). 🖤 Such a brilliant artist with a unique voice. ❤️

Because some people here do value my #MovieReviews 🎥, I have decided to use a special hashtag #cmovies and post them in this #thread 🧵 going forward.

Warning: most come from Netflix US! Short series about a woman who revenges her husband’s death in a town full of secrets. Good acting and beautiful vistas. Last twist too predictable. 🇦🇹 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Media are reporting on early + mail voting by district, often 50-60% of the total vote. So far, Dems poll only slightly higher than Biden in 2020 in FL and GA. Unanswered question: is Election Day bias (R > D) still the same. If so, numbers look bad. If not, there is hope. Marco Rubio 7% ahead after early + mail votes (58%) in Miami-Dade, which was carried by Dems in 2020 and 2016. Given Reps tend to vote more on Election Day, this is very bad news…

Happy #VotingDay to all US citizens!

These #Midterms have so many things to focus on that it is truly overwhelming. Here are some of the things I will be focusing on. #Thread 🧵 1. It is broadly expected that the Democrats will lose the House. If this happens, expect the House to oppose and sabotage the Biden admin in the next two years. Also expect endless Impeachment procedures against Biden and others.

#Sweden was never special. It was just a few decades behind the European curve. Radical right #SwedenDemocrats will support right-wing coalition, which already adopted many of its frames and issues. A few quick thoughts. 🧵
theguardian.com/world/2022/oct… 1. Support for a minority government does not necessarily lead to full participation or long-term mainstreaming. DF in Denmark never entered government formally, while PVV because ostracized after support for Rutte 1.

Adios Chile! Hasta luego! 🇨🇱 Ok @ATLairport , maybe you don’t have the most incompetent border control after all.

I've seen enough. Worst possible #Lula victory in first-round of #brazilianelections today. Much more worried now for second round for the following reasons.

#Eleicoes2022 #Thread 🧵 1. #Lula wins 47%-48%, which is in line with average of polls. So, this is good, but...

His lead over Bolsonaro is just 3-4%.

Games of @PSV and @borussia back to back now. Have been looking forward to this for two weeks… might regret that soon enough. ❤️🤍🖤 Comical 1-0 for Cambuur. EVERYONE fails. Starting to think Benitez wasn’t a very good choice either.

I am getting a lot of emails about "the rise of the far right in Europe" the last days. That generally means that there are two countries that gained broader attention in which the far right does well. But how significant is this "rise" really? #thread 🧵 In Sweden 🇸🇪, #SwedenDemocrats gained 3% compared to 2018. Taking into account slightly lower turnout, it was actually 2%.

2022: 20.5% x 84.2% = 17.26%
2018: 17.5% x 87.1% = 15.24%

With this bang on the gong 22 scholars, including me, were officially inducted into the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Science or @_knaw , joining roughly 600 others. Sadly, I had to do it online.

An enormous honor after a not very traditional career. A quick #thread 🧵 1. I never thought about, or wanted to, become an academic. I never excelled at, or enjoyed, school and even had to repeat 5th class in high school. I mainly entered university to avoid military service (then still compulsory in the Netherlands).

Great thread by my colleague @AmandaMurdie (read it!). Some additions:

1. Journals require too many reviews (2 is enough).
2. Pool of reviewers of most journals is too small.
3. Pools overlap too much.
4. Too many submissions!

https://twitter.com/AmandaMurdie/status/1559602344672772096

Ad 1) There is a pissing match between “top” journals to have more and more reviewers per manuscript to show how “selective” and “serious” they are.

The debate about democratic erosion continues to make the classic mistake of externalizing the threats, focusing on the extremist margins rather than the political mainstream. 🧵 1. Case in point, with regard of #January6th almost all focus is on the people who storming the Capitol rather than those inside of it.

I finally read the whole book by @A_SHEKH0VTS0V on the relationship between Russia and the Western far right. It is essential reading for academics, journos, and think tankers working/writing on the topic.

Some quick thoughts. 🧵

routledge.com/Russia-and-the… 1. For me personally, it was more insightful on Russia's position on the far right than the far right's position on Russia. This is not just because I know the far right better, but because Anton's analysis of the Kremlin and Russian politics is excellent.

Transphobia is a gateway drug into the far right. I am in no way surprised that I have transphobes among my followers.

Most non-Americans have no clue how acute and significant the threat to US democracy really is. More problematically, most Americans do not either. I know many people will find this "alarmist", but I have been studying the far right for almost three decades, and have never been an alarmist - in fact, have often been accused of underestimating it.

Fox News does not need to spread the Great Replacement "Theory" (GRT) anymore as we have all been doing it the last days, giving more exposure to a dangerous conspiracy theory than the terrorist could have ever hoped for.

A personal reflection. 🧵
theguardian.com/us-news/2022/m… 1. I have been studying the far right for almost 30 years now, having published academically on it, but also given interviews to media since graduate school. I have made many mistakes along the way, some I know about, many I don't. So, clearly, treat everything with care.

The Great Replacement "Theory" is not just about demographic change or a racist idea that (non-white) immigration is bad.

What sets GRT apart from these much older ideas is that there is an active attempt to change the population to regain or sustain power by a specific elite. Obviously, racist theories are not new. And countries like the US are founded on racism. And GRT is a racist theory. But it is a SPECIFIC racist theory, which is not very recent, but also not centuries old.