Thread by @jwuthnow

How prepared is #China to respond to a domestic emergency? What is the role of the People’s Armed Police? How in control of the internal security forces is #Xi Jinping? I address in a new @chinaquarterly article

cambridge.org/core/journals/…

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In 2018, the PAP (China’s primary internal security force) was moved fully into the military chain of command under Xi, reducing ability of local officials to mobilize PAP during emergencies. For overview, see an earlier @NDU_EDU publication

inss.ndu.edu/Media/News/Art…

Dilemma was that localities still need PAP capabilities to respond to national disasters and large scale unrest. Updated PAP Law contained a loophole for PAP to “report while acting” – mobilizing before full approval process has completed
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In practice, localities have updated emergency response plans for general and specific contingencies that demonstrate that PAP is still regarded as an integral of the local emergency response system and clarify mechanism through which coordination should take place.
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There is also variance across localities. Some municipalities, such as Shanghai, have more elaborate procedures and policies for using PAP than other places. Greater pre-planning and coordination could smooth friction during mobilization process.
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Even in well-run localities, however, officials could be wary of higher level scrutiny. Using PAP means that local system was inadequate. Speculatively, this could produce more cautious decisions to use PAP, especially in localized incidents where center isn’t yet engaged.
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To centralize power over internal security forces, Xi and his colleagues thus took a calculated risk that the emergency response system could be less effective. They tried to square the circle with a new PAP Law but this could prove inadequate depending on local variables.
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Research also found a useful vein of #Chinese open sources – emergency response plans – that are by necessity public and yield much insight into the ways that localities (and national authorities) prepare for a range of contingencies. Further use is recommended.
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