Rather than rolling over Pakistan’s existing debt by one year, the debt needs to restructured such that repayments are pushed back by 10-15 years. Also rather than taking on new loans we should insist on grants. External debt sustainability has reached its limit
If we succeed in restructuring the debt profile and create fiscal space, we will have to embark on climate adaptation measures. This cannot be delayed any further and the future is upon us
We have probably exhausted our financing limits with IMF so not much is likely to come from that source. We need to create fiscal space internally to undertake crucial climate adaptation. We need to look how the provinces generate more of the funds that they spend as in Canada
We can’t simply keep asking the same people to pay more and more taxes. More segments of society should start making their fair contribution to tax revenues including agri sector, retail business etc. Moreover provinces &cities need to generate the revenue that they spent locally
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Some are lamenting possible replacement of Miftah as FM. Many of them claim he saved the country from default. While everyone has a right to their biases, it might be worth getting a full perspective, such as, Miftah actually worsened the default probability. B4 screaming.. 1/n
consider this: the delay in the raising of fuel prices and power tariffs was the main reason increased uncertainty & balloon subsidy losses. As FM it was incumbent on Miftah to convince the PM to accept these measures before IMF imposed them as prior actions to revive EFF 2/n
He had to do the tariff increases as prior actions, effectively he was compelled by IMF after wasting 3 months. First visiting DC and lying that EFF would be expanded by $2bn and would be revived imminently. A conveniently untrue leak was given to Haider Mehdi of the News 3/n
GoP FY22-23 is quite a difficult budget to decipher because it so full of inconsistencies that seem deliberately planted to befuddle anyone trying to make sense of it.
Let’s start with the 11.5% inflation assumption. Currently CPI is close to 13.5% and this does not include the
impact of fuel price increases. That will undoubtedly push inflation close to 15%. There’s further Rs11/litre and Rs23/litre on petrol & diesel to come that will further add to inflationary pressures. The budget assumes Rs750bn petroleum levy. Therefore there’ll be at least Rs70
further increment in fuel prices. That should take inflation closer to 17-18% conservatively speaking. Moreover there’s the Rs depreciation that adds to overall inflationary pressure. And of course the continuing global food price spike that is worsening. The 11.5% number seems
Blame the US and all the other external forces all you want, but none is more responsible for economic disaster that faces Pakistan than ‘the handler of the 3 stooges’. Since the tabling of VONC, FX reserves have fallen by $5.7B, inflation has risen to 13.4%, & T-Bill rate to 15%
The Pakistan EuroBond has spiked up to above 16% and credit default swap to over 12%. Effectively international debt markets doors are shut to Pakistan. Since the IMF program is in suspension & all of traditional friends of Pakistan have now refused to provide additional funding
And given that that there seems to be no consensus between Miftah and Dar on how to proceed to with the Fund program, only policy confusion is competing with inflationary rate in how fast it grows. Let’s be clear inflation at 13.4% has not yet peaked. It has to go higher as full
I am afraid of late
Cold sweat trickles down my temple
Fear I did have not have facing death
Cancer could not be more pernicious
Than the repetitions
Of the tedium of old salutations
That tired line of repeat loop conversations
I am afraid of late
I shall not meet a new face
With phosphorus burning like thought
To shock and scare
Yet in deathly staleness breathe new life
I am afraid of late
I might not see you again
Like that parched desert
That endless sea of thought will not get a drop of rain
And like all that vast openness die of barrenness
Most countries have faced at some point in their history critical tests which define them. But in few do the intelligentsia show such pusillanimous despair and despondency as in Pakistan. In few do the most privileged abandon the vast majority with such casual disdain.
The decent, god-fearing, hard working & generally tolerant masses remain voiceless yet hopeful. They have neither foreign qualifications, offshore assets, posh club membership, or a portfolio of assets in the country. Since they have little, the cannot afford but remain hopeful.
In most countries the intelligentsia provide the vision of hope in its bleakest hour; give voice to the gentle aspirations of the people; and harness their boundless energy towards a better future. Here the best and the brightest wallow in hopelessness.