Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 25, 2022 9 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Know someone having a baby soon? CONGRATULATIONS! 🍼🍼🍼

As hospitals drop universal COVID protections, these are my top 7 tips for protecting unmaskable un-vaxable newborns from #nosocomial (hospital-acquired) COVID.

What did I miss?

THREAD of Top 7 Tips 🧵
Tip #1 – Determine your #mask rules. Some parents require staff to #N95. Compliance would vary by region/hospital. Prep for what you’ll say if staff don’t comply.

With our newborn twins, we supplied medical staff w/free N95s & tests. Nobody wanted N95s; 1 took a #RAT. 🤣
Tip #2 – U.S. hospitals SHOULD have excellent ventilation (air cleaning) by reg. But HVAC repair doesn’t have a CPT code. Many of my best & worst air quality readings are from hospitals.

Consider buying a #CO2monitor, read on that hashtag, & follow @joeyfox85 for basic tips.
Tip #3 – Bring 1-2 large #HEPA filters. Your GOAL is to keep them plugged in. When someone says they must unplug them, have a plan!

When told to unplug our HEPAs, I demanded to speak to the building engineer (too busy to ever show up) & …
Tip 3 (cont) – talk to the 'patient advocate' BEFORE letting anyone unplug the #HEPA.

If anyone unplugged my HEPAs, I would have kicked them off the care team, trashed the hospital on social media, called the news and a lawyer, and started picketing outside.

Have a plan.
Tip #4 – W/all the unmasked ppl roaming medical facilities, build a #PAPRbuggy/#HEPAbuggy to keep babies safer when leaving & for their many well visits.

I began testing designs in March. Read my empirical report (under review, see link to pre-print).
Tip #5 – Protect yourself. Get the bivalent #booster. Discuss nuance w/OBGYN/PCP. Mask well. Set vax & mask rules for any fam visitors.

I wore N95s >99% of the time in the hospital & my partner did except for meals (after a HEPA cleaning delay). Mask while sleeping.
Tip #6 – Develop testing protocols for fam who may visit in or after the hospital stay. I’ve administered hundreds of tests (RATs, PCR, antibody), talk about boogers, swab tactics, etc.

No family sees my babies w/o getting tested. Determine what’s right for your fam context.
Tip #7 – Give yourself grace. Health systems have little understanding that #COVIDisAirborne. The WH, CDC, and much of America are living in #delusion-ville while a 9/11 of ppl die each week. Whatever happens, you did the best you could.

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama	Very Low Alaska	Very Low Arizona	Very Low Arkansas	Low* California	Very Low Colorado	Very Low Connecticut	Low Delaware	Moderate District of Columbia	Low Florida	Very Low Georgia	Very Low Guam	Very Low Hawaii	Very Low Idaho	Very Low Illinois	Very Low Indiana	Low Iowa	Moderate Kansas	Low Kentucky	Moderate Louisiana	Low Maine	Very Low Maryland	Moderate Massachusetts	Very Low Michigan	High* Minnesota	Moderate Mississippi	High* Missouri	Low Montana	Very Low Nebraska	Low Nevada	Very Low New Hampshire	Low* New Jersey	Low New Mexico	Very Low New York	Very Low North Carolina	Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text.  Column 2:  Proportion Actively Infectious										1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections										 732,000  Infections the Past Week										 5,220,000  Infections in 2026										 24,000,000  Cumulative Infections per Person										 5.04  										 Long COVID										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								37,000 to 146,000		   from New Daily Infections										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								261,000 to 1,040,000		   from New Weekly Infections										 										 Excess Deaths										 Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves  Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission  Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast  Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:

🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5 Heat map from CDC data with PMC estimates. Description of "Very High" states in next post
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.

11 states have Very High COVlD levels:

🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5 Proportion Actively Infectious										1 in 52 (1.9%) New Daily Infections										 941,000  Infections the Past Week										 6,020,000  Infections in 2026										 18,000,000  Cumulative Infections per Person										 5.01  										 Long COVID										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								47,000 to 188,000		   from New Daily Infections										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								301,000 to 1,200,000		   from New Weekly Infections										 										 Excess Deaths										 Excess Deaths Resulting 									270 to 450	   from New Daily Infections										 Excess Deaths Resulting 				...
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.

The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.

🧵3/5 1) Graph of 12 waves 2) Barometer showing above-average transmission 3) Year over year graph 4) Forecast for transmission to decline and then percolate at high levels
Read 5 tweets
Jan 10
The size of the winter COVlD wave has been revised upward as post-holiday data come in.

We estimated 1 in 55 people in the U.S. are actively infectious.

🔥WV: 1 in 14
🔥IN: 1 in 15
🔥MI & OH: 1 in 21
🔥MO: 1 in 22
🔥CT: 1 in 24
🔥KS: 1 in 25
🔥MA & IL: 1 in 27

Quick 🧵 1/4 Heat map and PMC estimates, 1 in 55 infectious and 892,000 new daily infections for Jan 12.  We expedited the report to release it two days early.
Nationally, we are seeing an estimated 892,000 new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, meaning a 1 in 4 chance of exposure in a room of 15 people. Risk varies considerably by state.

We are approaching an average of 5 infections per person since pandemic onset.
🧵 2/4 Alabama	Moderate Alaska	Very Low Arizona	Very Low Arkansas	High* California	Very Low Colorado	Low Connecticut	Very High Delaware	Moderate District of Columbia	Very Low Florida	Very Low Georgia	Very Low Guam	Very Low Hawaii	Very Low Idaho	Very Low Illinois	Very High Indiana	Very High Iowa	High Kansas	Very High Kentucky	Moderate Louisiana	Moderate Maine	High Maryland	High Massachusetts	Very High Michigan	Very High* Minnesota	Moderate Mississippi	Low* Missouri	Very High* Montana	High Nebraska	High Nevada	Very Low New Hampshire	Moderate New Jersey	Low New Mexico	Moderate New York	High* North Ca...
We are in the 12th COVlD wave of the U.S.

Current transmission is higher than 68% of all days since the pandemic onset in 2020.
🧵 3/4 12 waves of COVlD  Pandemic barometer: Higher than 88% of the past 100 days, 73% of the past year, 68% of the entire pandemic.  Year over year graph  Forecast of slowly declining transmission.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 8
You might not have heard, but the northeastern U.S. is in a COVlD surge.

We use wastewater levels to derive estimates of the proportion of people actively infectious in each state (prevalence), e.g., 1 in 24 people in Connecticut.

Let me walk you through it...

🧵1/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC prevalence estimates noted: -Maine 1 in 38 actively infectious with COVlD -New Hampshire 1 in 35 (limited data) -Vermont 1 in 75 -New York 1 in 44 (limited data) -Pennsylvania 1 in 44 -Massachusetts 1 in 36 -Connecticut 1 in 24 -Rhode Island 1 in 41 -New Jersey 1 in 82
Notice that #Connecticut has excellent SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance. It's "Very High" across much of the state, per CDC.

Based on wastewater levels, we estimate 1 in 24 residents are actively infectious w/COVlD. That's a 66% exposure risk in a room of 25 people.

🧵2/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC estimate of prevalence
The CDC reports "Very High" levels in #Massachusetts.

The surveillance is less robust, but we estimate 1 in 26 residents are actively infectious, similar to our estimate in CT where coverage is better.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 62% chance of an exposure.

🧵3/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC prevalence estimates provided
Read 8 tweets

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