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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Sep 26, 2022 • 11 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
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Empowered communities want free #N95 masks!

Our new pre-print shows that people are excited to use N95s during COVID surges when given them for free w/helpful information on their evidence & how to use them.
1/
 psyarxiv.com/f76vw Study abstract: People want...Project banner: Free N95 Qu...Aegle N95, given away in th...
You might remember when we posted about the study back in December!

I hope you find the results useful. We tried to make the figures relatable, even if you're not reading science articles every day. Please let me know if you have questions!
2/
We gave out 2,500 #N95 masks in 5 packs to our racially & socioeconomically diverse community. Many used N95s for the 1st time. People treated us like we were giving them kidneys. So grateful!

97% used at least 1 N95 & 40% used all 5 within 1-mo!

3/
We called our #N95 giveaway study "Project #Bandura," named for the famous #psychologist who studied social learning.

Well -- people learned, socially! >80% of participants told others about N95s. Several enthusiasts shared w/dozens of ppl!
4/
Cost was the biggest barrier to sustained #N95 use!

Still, ppl planned to buy an average of >10 more N95s in the near future (2x what we gave them).

More interesting, if FREE, 88% would use N95s again. Once you pop, you can't stop!
5/
We only gave away 2,500 N95s. It was labor intensive b/c we included educational materials, had a follow-up survey, went through IRB, etc.

However, it validates @amandalhu's 17,000 mask giveaway, those of cities and fed govt's.

Free N95 & #BetterMasks are hugely popular!
6/
As a #psychologist, there is 1 big truth I believe w/my heart. If you talk to most ppl in a way that's reasonable, about 97% will feel empowered to take actions to improve their lives & communities.

As true for COVID as anything else. We just need more courageous leadership.
7/
With N95s extremely popular during #COVID surges, what's the national strategy?

The U.S. had a stockpile and started giving them out for free (after my psychology research team 🤣). There are no known plans to buy and distribute more.

8/11
Domestic manufacturers are selling off #N95 inventory & equipment after boom-and-bust cycles. Many are closing their doors.

It's a low-cost filter. For your face. That keeps you from getting sick & becoming disabled or dying.

What are we doing???
9/11
Thanks if you posted about #CovidisAirborne. The study is dedicated to you.

You converted me from cloth masks to N95s.

Shouldn't we have federal #policy priorities to make high-quality masks available to everyone during surges?

10/11
Thank you- @LazarusLong13 @Amal4Solutions @TySopko @kprather88 @joaquinlife @sri_srikrishna @PPEtoheros @AegleCo @projectn95 @crosscutanne @NgoTheWorld @JudahWorldChamp @amandalhu @micah_arsham @LauraMiers @mehdirhasan @KDNyhan @DrJenPlatt @akm5376 @JimRosenthal4 @CorsIAQ
11/11

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 6
PMC COVlD Update, April 6, 2026

Transmission is stable in a relative "lull" nationally between waves.

We estimate that approximately 313,000 people are still getting infected per day, with outbreaks radiating from TN and MS.

🧵1 of 10 (don't miss #10)! Heat map with PMC estimates
With limited data reported, Mississippi has an estimated 1 in 27 residents actively infectious.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 61% chance of exposure, if no testing/isolation protocols.

🧵2 of 10 Alabama Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low* Arkansas Low California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Low District of Columbia Very Low Florida Very Low Georgia Low Guam Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Very Low Iowa Very Low Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Moderate Maine Very Low Maryland Low Massachusetts Very Low Michigan Low Minnesota Very Low Mississippi Very High*
1 in 24 people in Tennessee are estimated to be actively infectious with SARS-CoV-2. That's a 65% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people where nobody is testing/isolating.

🧵3 of 10 Missouri Moderate* Montana Very Low Nebraska Very Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Very Low New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota Very Low* Ohio Very Low Oklahoma Low* Oregon Very Low Pennsylvania Low Rhode Island Very Low South Carolina Very Low South Dakota Low Tennessee Very High Texas Low Utah Very Low Vermont Moderate Virginia Moderate Washington Very Low West Virginia Low Wisconsin Very Low Wyoming Very Low
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 3
This is an unethically misleading study with findings easily explained by residual confounding. Some health systems and patients have thorough record keeping. Others don't. All sorts of variables will correlate (infections, cancers, anything else tracked in medical records).
This is a really obvious issue for an international epi study. It should not have been published.
The above study is using the same processes the anti-vaxxers use -- junk epi that does not account for confounding -- to support whatever pre-conceived notions the authors have, with absurdly large effects.

Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama Very Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas Low* California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Low Iowa Moderate Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Low Maine Very Low Maryland Moderate Massachusetts Very Low Michigan High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi High* Missouri Low Montana Very Low Nebraska Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Low* New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text. Column 2: Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 732,000 Infections the Past Week 5,220,000 Infections in 2026 24,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.04 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 146,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 261,000 to 1,040,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 17
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:

🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5 Heat map from CDC data with PMC estimates. Description of "Very High" states in next post
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.

11 states have Very High COVlD levels:

🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5 Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 52 (1.9%) New Daily Infections 941,000 Infections the Past Week 6,020,000 Infections in 2026 18,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.01 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 47,000 to 188,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 301,000 to 1,200,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 270 to 450 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths Resulting ...
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.

The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.

🧵3/5 1) Graph of 12 waves 2) Barometer showing above-average transmission 3) Year over year graph 4) Forecast for transmission to decline and then percolate at high levels
Read 5 tweets

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