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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Sep 26, 2022 • 11 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Empowered communities want free #N95 masks!

Our new pre-print shows that people are excited to use N95s during COVID surges when given them for free w/helpful information on their evidence & how to use them.
1/
 psyarxiv.com/f76vw Study abstract: People want...Project banner: Free N95 Qu...Aegle N95, given away in th...
You might remember when we posted about the study back in December!

I hope you find the results useful. We tried to make the figures relatable, even if you're not reading science articles every day. Please let me know if you have questions!
2/
We gave out 2,500 #N95 masks in 5 packs to our racially & socioeconomically diverse community. Many used N95s for the 1st time. People treated us like we were giving them kidneys. So grateful!

97% used at least 1 N95 & 40% used all 5 within 1-mo!

3/
We called our #N95 giveaway study "Project #Bandura," named for the famous #psychologist who studied social learning.

Well -- people learned, socially! >80% of participants told others about N95s. Several enthusiasts shared w/dozens of ppl!
4/
Cost was the biggest barrier to sustained #N95 use!

Still, ppl planned to buy an average of >10 more N95s in the near future (2x what we gave them).

More interesting, if FREE, 88% would use N95s again. Once you pop, you can't stop!
5/
We only gave away 2,500 N95s. It was labor intensive b/c we included educational materials, had a follow-up survey, went through IRB, etc.

However, it validates @amandalhu's 17,000 mask giveaway, those of cities and fed govt's.

Free N95 & #BetterMasks are hugely popular!
6/
As a #psychologist, there is 1 big truth I believe w/my heart. If you talk to most ppl in a way that's reasonable, about 97% will feel empowered to take actions to improve their lives & communities.

As true for COVID as anything else. We just need more courageous leadership.
7/
With N95s extremely popular during #COVID surges, what's the national strategy?

The U.S. had a stockpile and started giving them out for free (after my psychology research team 🤣). There are no known plans to buy and distribute more.

8/11
Domestic manufacturers are selling off #N95 inventory & equipment after boom-and-bust cycles. Many are closing their doors.

It's a low-cost filter. For your face. That keeps you from getting sick & becoming disabled or dying.

What are we doing???
9/11
Thanks if you posted about #CovidisAirborne. The study is dedicated to you.

You converted me from cloth masks to N95s.

Shouldn't we have federal #policy priorities to make high-quality masks available to everyone during surges?

10/11
Thank you- @LazarusLong13 @Amal4Solutions @TySopko @kprather88 @joaquinlife @sri_srikrishna @PPEtoheros @AegleCo @projectn95 @crosscutanne @NgoTheWorld @JudahWorldChamp @amandalhu @micah_arsham @LauraMiers @mehdirhasan @KDNyhan @DrJenPlatt @akm5376 @JimRosenthal4 @CorsIAQ
11/11

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 6
1) PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Jan 6, 2025 (U.S.)

📈1 in 49 people actively infectious
🔥Nearly 1 million daily infections
🎲About a 50-50 chance someone has COVID in a large class if typical risk and no testing/isolating
🏥300,000+ new Long Covid conditions per week

The infections are likely minor underestimates. AZ and OR did not report this week. They were surging, so the lack of data brings down the average. As well, the model gives 80% weight to CDC wastewater data and 20% weight to Biobot, but Biobot took the week off, so this is dependent on observed changes in the CDC data.

It would be wise to add multiple imputation into the model to account for all the non-random missingness during surges, but I won't likely get to that anytime soon.

The peak is looking more and more like 1.4 million daily infections, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's earlier than shown and more like 1.3 million, based on the pattern of retroactive data corrections last winter. If the real-time data really stink, it could come in closer to 1.0-1.1 million. To top 1.6 million, we would probably need some serious immune escape that at present I just don't see happening. However, in past winters, transmission was declining nationally in early/mid January, and back-to-school is a wild card.

Info for new readers:

For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 1.5 years at pmc19.com/data

The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks. Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…

Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, NBC, and CNN. See pgs 11-13 at the above link.

We will have a pre-print out in the next week or so documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates. Forecasting is challenging in the context of the current viral evolution, but the real-time estimates of cases are impressively accurate to the best we can evaluate it.

#MaskUp #VaxUp #CleanTheAir #RapidTestCurrent Levels for Jan 6, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 2.1% (1 in 49) New Daily Infections 980,000 New Weekly Infections 6,860,000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 343,000 to 1,372,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 2.7% (1 in 38) Average New Daily Infections 1,272,833 New Infections During the Next Month 38,185,000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 1,909,000 to 7,637,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 5,468,000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.55 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Contacts? Number of people |...
2) PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Jan 6, 2025 (U.S.)

We're in the 10th wave of the pandemic (1st graph), and transmission this year has picked up atypically late, while coming on strong (2nd graph).Two graphs, summarized in tweet
3) PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Jan 6, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that sputtering in the West's rise is likely an aberration, as surging OR and AZ did not provide data this week.

Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 3
📢Clean Air Advocates📢

I recently learned of a new strategy to get more clean indoor air to people's homes. I don't believe I've heard anyone mention this on here, but please add if you have made inroads.
1/
Last August, I was surprised to learn that Entergy, our regional energy company, was giving away free HEPA filters to customers.

This was surprising to me. Why would an energy company do this?
2/
Apparently, most jurisdictions in the U.S. have regulations that require a portion of consumers' energy payments to go toward an energy efficiency fund.

These are often used for discounts on thermostats but occasionally for Energy Star appliances.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 20, 2024
x.com/i/article/1870…
2) This is one of the better scenarios I noted, with national levels coming in at about 3.33. Unfortunately, the rise was a little lower than anticipated only because transmission slowed in the west. Not uniform, so lots of uncertainty.

3) Transmission remains much higher than people realize. Many will get caught off guard by a seemingly #SilentSurge. This is in part because the CDC spent the past month downplaying numbers in misleading graphs.

Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Dec 16, 2024
🧵1 of 8

🔹1 in 64 (1.6%) actively infectious in the U.S.
🔹750,000 new daily infections and rising
🔹Highest % increase in transmission in nearly 3 years
🔹10th wave is the "silent surge," coming on late out of nowhere

The video will walk you through each of the graphs on the dashboard and covered in this thread.

Info for new readers:

For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data

The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.

Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…

Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link.

We will have a pre-print out in the next month documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates. Forecasting is challenging in the context of the current viral evolution, but the real-time estimates of cases are impressively accurate to the best we can evaluate it.
PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Dec 16, 2024
🧵2 of 8

🔹10th wave taking off (U.S.)
🔹5 million infections expected this week
🔹>250,000 post-infection conditions (#LongCovid) expected to develop from this week's infections
🔹Higher transmission than 73% of the pandemic

Info for new readers (as noted in Tweet 1):

For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data

The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.

Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…

Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link.

We will have a pre-print out in the next month documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates. Forecasting is challenging in the context of the current viral evolution, but the real-time estimates of cases are impressively accurate to the best we can evaluate it.Current Levels for Dec 16, 2024 % of the Population Infectious 1.6% (1 in 64) New Daily Infections 748,000 New Weekly Infections 5,236,000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 262,000 to 1,047,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 2.5% (1 in 41) Average New Daily Infections 1,178,167 New Infections During the Next Month 35,345,000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 1,767,000 to 7,069,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2024 242,424,000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.50 There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 73.3% of th...
PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Dec 16, 2024
🧵3 of 8

Areas of the U.S. depicted in darker red have higher transmission, as of 9 days ago. The map uses CDC data and is simply the CDC "cool blue" map recolored in more traditional red, which is best practices.

The line graph shows transmission increasing by region.

CDC map:
cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID1…

CDC regional graph:
cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID1…

Info for new readers (as noted in Tweet 1):

For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data

The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.

Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…

Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link.

We will have a pre-print out in the next month documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates. Forecasting is challenging in the context of the current viral evolution, but the real-time estimates of cases are impressively accurate to the best we can evaluate it.Map shows highest transmission in Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Massachusetts. Estimated Percentage Actively Infectious PMC Model Raw CDC Data (9 days old) National 1.6% (1 in 64) 0.9% (1 in 113) Northeast 0.8% (1 in 132) 0.4% (1 in 234) Midwest 2.4% (1 in 41) 1.4% (1 in 73) South 1.3% (1 in 74) 0.8% (1 in 132) West 1.5% (1 in 66) 0.9% (1 in 118)
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 22, 2024
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Oct 21, 2024
🧵1 of 4

Every indication is that the 10th U.S. Covid wave is on the way. Within 2 weeks, expect transmission to be meaningfully higher.

Current estimates from PMC:
🔹1 in 115 actively infectious
🔹Higher transmission than during 43% of the pandemic
🔹Nearly 3 million weekly infections

These estimates are high in the absolute sense, but low relative to the recent summer wave and likely winter surge.

The CDC data show transmission increasing in the Northeast, and a slowing of the decline in transmission elsewhere. Biobot data also show flattening transmission. The raw CDC and Biobot wastewater data are delayed >1 week. Walgreens shows positive cases, testing, and positivity ratios flattening and is delayed only 1 day.

For those unfamiliar with the model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data

The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical (median) levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.

Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…

Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 10-11 at the above link.GRAPH Shows forecasted entry into a 10th Covid wave. TABLES Current Levels for Oct 21, 2024 % of the Population Infectious 0.9% (1 in 115) New Daily Infections 414,000 New Weekly Infections 2,898,000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 145,000 to 580,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.3% (1 in 76) Average New Daily Infections 627,600 New Infections During the Next Month 18,828,000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 941,000 to 3,766,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2024 225,097,000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.46 How Does ...
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Oct 21, 2024
🧵2 of 4

These graphs show the forecast for changes in transmission over the next month.

The first graph shows year-over-year transmission. The 2nd focuses on the most recent year. Within a month, expect to see 0.7 to 1.0 million daily infections, if the assumptions of the model hold.

If lucky, we could get a slightly longer "lull" than what the model shows. The model likely underestimates the true value for the recent summer peak because many children were infected while going back to school, in fact, the highest peak at that time period all-time. Wastewater underestimates child infections ("contributions" correlate highly with body weight, so it takes four ill 50 lb kids to show up as one ill 200 lb adult). In underestimating the peak, transmission also fell more rapidly than anticipated post-peak. To the extent we underestimated the magnitude of the peak, there may be fewer than anticipated infections the next two weeks and a longer lull.

If you look at the first graph, however, you will see a clear patterns of escalating transmission in November, so it's more a matter of how quickly the situation will worsen than whether it will worsen.

During this relative "lull," it's an excellent time to stock up on high-quality masks, get vaccinated, upgrade the quality and quantity of air cleaners, re-stock on rapid tests, and encourage others to do the same.Two graphs, described in Tweet.
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Oct 21, 2024
🧵3 of 4

Regional differences suggest that the NE may already be rebounding in transmission. Transmission declines are slowing elsewhere.

We compare the PMC map in standard red against the CDC map using the same data in cool blue.Estimated Percentage Actively Infectious* National 0.9% (1 in 115) Northeast 1.0% (1 in 101) Midwest 0.9% (1 in 114) South 0.8% (1 in 130) West 0.9% (1 in 106)
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 7, 2024
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Oct 7, 2024
🧵 1/4

540,000 daily infections during the "lull" between the 9th & 10th U.S. Covid waves.

🔹1.1% (1 in 88) actively infectious
🔹19 million anticipated infections the next month
🔹Higher transmission than half the pandemicGraph: 10 waves of the pandemic Tables/stats: Current Levels for Oct 7, 2024 % of the Population Infectious 1.1% (1 in 88) New Daily Infections 541,000 New Weekly Infections 3,787,000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 189,000 to 757,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.3% (1 in 74) Average New Daily Infections 643,433 New Infections During the Next Month 19,303,000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 965,000 to 3,861,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2024 220,311,000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.44 How Does Risk Increase wi...
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Oct 7, 2024
🧵 2/4

Year-over-year, we have seen the steepest drop in transmission all-time on the back end of a summer/fall wave.

Similar transmission the next month, a very high lull. Expect transmission to accelerate in mid-Nov.Two graphs Year-over-year transmission. A very high late-summer wave, the highest all-time during Aug/Sep, followed by the steepest decline on the back of a summer wave, all-time. Forecast. Note similar transmission over the next month, 40-60% of the summer wave's peak. Expect transmission to pick up considerably in mid-Nov in anticipation of a winter surge peaking around New Year's Eve
PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Oct 7, 2024
🧵 3/4

Relative to the Northeast, transmission is 2x higher in the Midwest/South & 2.5x higher in the West region.

However, the CDC regions mask extreme variation within region. The 7 highest-transmission states are far north.Map: Transmission highest in Washington state, Oregon, Montana, Minnesota, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Line Graph: Shows the regional statistics summarized in tweet.
Read 4 tweets

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