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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Sep 26, 2022 • 11 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Empowered communities want free #N95 masks!

Our new pre-print shows that people are excited to use N95s during COVID surges when given them for free w/helpful information on their evidence & how to use them.
1/
 psyarxiv.com/f76vw Study abstract: People want...Project banner: Free N95 Qu...Aegle N95, given away in th...
You might remember when we posted about the study back in December!

I hope you find the results useful. We tried to make the figures relatable, even if you're not reading science articles every day. Please let me know if you have questions!
2/
We gave out 2,500 #N95 masks in 5 packs to our racially & socioeconomically diverse community. Many used N95s for the 1st time. People treated us like we were giving them kidneys. So grateful!

97% used at least 1 N95 & 40% used all 5 within 1-mo!

3/
We called our #N95 giveaway study "Project #Bandura," named for the famous #psychologist who studied social learning.

Well -- people learned, socially! >80% of participants told others about N95s. Several enthusiasts shared w/dozens of ppl!
4/
Cost was the biggest barrier to sustained #N95 use!

Still, ppl planned to buy an average of >10 more N95s in the near future (2x what we gave them).

More interesting, if FREE, 88% would use N95s again. Once you pop, you can't stop!
5/
We only gave away 2,500 N95s. It was labor intensive b/c we included educational materials, had a follow-up survey, went through IRB, etc.

However, it validates @amandalhu's 17,000 mask giveaway, those of cities and fed govt's.

Free N95 & #BetterMasks are hugely popular!
6/
As a #psychologist, there is 1 big truth I believe w/my heart. If you talk to most ppl in a way that's reasonable, about 97% will feel empowered to take actions to improve their lives & communities.

As true for COVID as anything else. We just need more courageous leadership.
7/
With N95s extremely popular during #COVID surges, what's the national strategy?

The U.S. had a stockpile and started giving them out for free (after my psychology research team 🤣). There are no known plans to buy and distribute more.

8/11
Domestic manufacturers are selling off #N95 inventory & equipment after boom-and-bust cycles. Many are closing their doors.

It's a low-cost filter. For your face. That keeps you from getting sick & becoming disabled or dying.

What are we doing???
9/11
Thanks if you posted about #CovidisAirborne. The study is dedicated to you.

You converted me from cloth masks to N95s.

Shouldn't we have federal #policy priorities to make high-quality masks available to everyone during surges?

10/11
Thank you- @LazarusLong13 @Amal4Solutions @TySopko @kprather88 @joaquinlife @sri_srikrishna @PPEtoheros @AegleCo @projectn95 @crosscutanne @NgoTheWorld @JudahWorldChamp @amandalhu @micah_arsham @LauraMiers @mehdirhasan @KDNyhan @DrJenPlatt @akm5376 @JimRosenthal4 @CorsIAQ
11/11

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 5
We told you that 109,000-175,000 Americans would died of COVID (excess deaths) in 2025.

Today, the CDC estimates 101,000 deaths/year (flat from Oct 2022 to Sep 2024), and likely higher when considering more nebulous non-acute excess deaths (heart attack 6 months later).
1/5
The CDC estimates are actually higher than I would have guessed, given their methodology, which models estimates based on easily countable factors in healthcare and expert input on multiplier values. It lends credence to the PMC upper bound of excess deaths of 175,000/yr.
2/5
What's troubling is the CDC has annual mortality flat. My expectation based on mortality displacement and Swiss Re data is that it should be declining. If is stays flat, we're running on something like breast+prostate cancer or lung cancer deaths per year in perpetuity.
3/5
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 31, 2025
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Dec 29, 2025
🧵1/10

Happy New Year's Eve! #nye

Based on today's CDC data, we estimate 1 in 51 Americans are actively infectious with COVlD. That's nearly 1 million new daily infections.

Be wise. Vax up, mask up. #oneofthetwo Heat map from CDC data and PMC estimates.
🧵2/10

Many states are surging presently. True levels are higher than shown in most places due to state-level reporting lags. Alabama Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Alaska Low 1 in 93 (1.1%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 201 (0.5%) Arkansas High* 1 in 32 (3.1%) California Very Low 1 in 351 (0.3%) Colorado Low 1 in 71 (1.4%) Connecticut High 1 in 33 (3.1%) Delaware Low 1 in 90 (1.1%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 300 (0.3%) Florida Very Low 1 in 282 (0.4%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 125 (0.8%) Guam Very Low 1 in 585 (0.2%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 855 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 221 (0.5%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 41 (2.5%) Indiana Very High 1 in 14 (6.9%) Iowa Low 1 in 69 (1.4%) Kansas Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Kentucky High 1 in 34 (2.9...
🧵3/10

Although many states are surging, do not feel false security in "low" level states. For example, NY has terrible reporting quality with the CDC currently. Missouri Moderate* 1 in 56 (1.8%) Montana Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 18 (5.5%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 122 (0.8%) New Hampshire Moderate* 1 in 42 (2.4%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 113 (0.9%) New Mexico Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) New York Very Low* 1 in 127 (0.8%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 125 (0.8%) North Dakota Moderate* 1 in 43 (2.3%) Ohio High 1 in 28 (3.6%) Oklahoma Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 170 (0.6%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Rhode Island Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) South Carolina Low 1 in 84 (1.2%) South Dakota High 1 in 33 (3.0%) Tennessee Moder...
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 15, 2025
PMC COVID Update, Dec 15, 2025 (U.S.)

In the latest CDC data, 15 states have moderate to very high transmission.
🔹1 in 63 estimated actively infectious nationally, rising fastest in the Midwest & Northeast
🔹Very High: Indiana
🔹High: Nebraska, Vermont, Connecticut

🧵1/9 Heat map from CDC data and PMC estimates of 1 in 63 actively infectious and >700,000 new daily infections, based on wastewater derived estimates using models noted in the Technical Appendix at the website listed in the image.
PMC estimates 1 in 26 people in Indiana are infectious and 1 in 39 in Connecticut.

MI, MS, and AR may have higher levels than shown due to poor reporting.

States AL to MS shown.

🧵2/9 Alabama Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 220 (0.5%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 118 (0.8%) Arkansas Low* 1 in 68 (1.5%) California Very Low 1 in 382 (0.3%) Colorado Very Low* 1 in 230 (0.4%) Connecticut High 1 in 39 (2.6%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 222 (0.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 131 (0.8%) Florida Very Low 1 in 320 (0.3%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 275 (0.4%) Guam Very Low 1 in 426 (0.2%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 670 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) Illinois Low 1 in 71 (1.4%) Indiana Very High 1 in 26 (3.8%) Iowa Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Kansas Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Kentucky Mode...
PMC estimates 1 in 39 are infectious in both Nebraska and Vermont (coincidence, not typo).

Very few NY sites are reporting to the CDC, so use the NYS website there instead.

States MO to WY shown.

🧵3/9 Missouri Low 1 in 80 (1.2%) Montana Very Low 1 in 135 (0.7%) Nebraska High 1 in 39 (2.5%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 225 (0.4%) New Hampshire Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 200 (0.5%) New Mexico Low 1 in 75 (1.3%) New York Moderate* 1 in 49 (2.1%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 226 (0.4%) North Dakota Low* 1 in 85 (1.2%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 47 (2.1%) Oregon Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 55 (1.8%) Rhode Island Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 215 (0.5%) South Dakota Low 1 in 86 (1.2%) Tennessee Moderate 1 in 60 (1.7%) ...
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 8, 2025
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
1/9
🔥🔥🔥Very High: Arizona (Yuma)
🔥🔥High: Indiana and Vermont
🔥Moderate: Nebraska and Alabama

Data only go through late November, and levels often increase following Thanksgiving. Heat map and PMC estimates of transmission (1 in 102 actively infectious).
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
2/9
State-by-state estimates (part 1). Arizona is Very High, but sites were only online in the Yuma area. Indiana remains high.

MI and MS have considerable uncertainty.

DC is exceptionally low. Alabama Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 220 (0.5%) Arizona Very High* 1 in 18 (5.7%) Arkansas Very Low* 1 in 138 (0.7%) California Very Low 1 in 574 (0.2%) Colorado Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Connecticut Low 1 in 91 (1.1%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 307 (0.3%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 5,777 (0.0%) Florida Very Low 1 in 494 (0.2%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 180 (0.6%) Guam Very Low 1 in 289 (0.3%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 704 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 121 (0.8%) Illinois Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) Indiana High 1 in 30 (3.3%) Iowa Low 1 in 83 (1.2%) Kansas Low 1 in 105 (1.0%) Kentucky Very L...
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
3/9
State-by-state estimates (part 1). Vermont remains High. Tennessee has fallen rapidly from a quick surge.

Data quality are low in NY. Missouri Very Low 1 in 176 (0.6%) Montana Very Low 1 in 136 (0.7%) Nebraska Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 372 (0.3%) New Hampshire Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 217 (0.5%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 118 (0.8%) New York Very Low* 1 in 260 (0.4%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 233 (0.4%) North Dakota Low* 1 in 101 (1.0%) Ohio Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 68 (1.5%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 150 (0.7%) Pennsylvania Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) Rhode Island Very Low 1 in 187 (0.5%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 144 (0.7%) South Dakota Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) Tennessee Very Low...
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 23, 2025
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/10

With CDC data operational again, the transmission map is back. The data are always a week old, so transmission is likely worse than depicted.

We estimate 1 in 116 people actively infectious and 422,000 new daily infections. Heat map: Indiana and Arkansas with "moderate" transmission. All others, "low" or "very low" (CDC categories).
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/10

State level estimates are back. Note, the CDC changed their data processing approach in August, which tends to downplay transmission.

Does 1 in 45 in Indiana seem "moderate"?

Levels in MI may be mod/high (poor reporting). Alabama Very Low 1 in 153 (0.7%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 272 (0.4%) Arizona Low 1 in 63 (1.6%) Arkansas Moderate* 1 in 47 (2.1%) California Very Low 1 in 365 (0.3%) Colorado Very Low 1 in 137 (0.7%) Connecticut Low 1 in 103 (1.0%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 262 (0.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 418 (0.2%) Florida Very Low 1 in 408 (0.2%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 292 (0.3%) Guam Very Low 1 in 887 (0.1%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 426 (0.2%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 116 (0.9%) Illinois Very Low 1 in 116 (0.9%) Indiana Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Iowa Very Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) Kansas Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Ke...
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/10

State-level estimates (continued).

Current levels may be much higher than noted here. Note that CDC data are always at least a week old. The 2nd half of November is a time period historically of accelerating transmission. Missouri Very Low 1 in 202 (0.5%) Montana Very Low* 1 in 114 (0.9%) Nebraska Low 1 in 95 (1.1%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 228 (0.4%) New Hampshire Low 1 in 78 (1.3%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 192 (0.5%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 151 (0.7%) New York Very Low 1 in 212 (0.5%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 212 (0.5%) North Dakota Very Low* 1 in 116 (0.9%) Ohio Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 70 (1.4%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 194 (0.5%) Pennsylvania Very Low 1 in 111 (0.9%) Rhode Island Very Low 1 in 167 (0.6%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) South Dakota Very Low 1 in 127 (0.8%) Tennes...
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 8, 2025
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵

🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon. Year over year graph, emphasizing that levels commonly rise in mid November
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵

The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.

There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month. Close up of the most recent 3 months of data, including the forecast.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵

We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.

Do a DIY fit test if you've been putting it off. Graph of the 11 waves
Read 6 tweets

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