Our new pre-print shows that people are excited to use N95s during COVID surges when given them for free w/helpful information on their evidence & how to use them. 1/ psyarxiv.com/f76vw
You might remember when we posted about the study back in December!
I hope you find the results useful. We tried to make the figures relatable, even if you're not reading science articles every day. Please let me know if you have questions! 2/
We gave out 2,500 #N95 masks in 5 packs to our racially & socioeconomically diverse community. Many used N95s for the 1st time. People treated us like we were giving them kidneys. So grateful!
97% used at least 1 N95 & 40% used all 5 within 1-mo!
3/
We called our #N95 giveaway study "Project #Bandura," named for the famous #psychologist who studied social learning.
Well -- people learned, socially! >80% of participants told others about N95s. Several enthusiasts shared w/dozens of ppl! 4/
Cost was the biggest barrier to sustained #N95 use!
Still, ppl planned to buy an average of >10 more N95s in the near future (2x what we gave them).
More interesting, if FREE, 88% would use N95s again. Once you pop, you can't stop! 5/
We only gave away 2,500 N95s. It was labor intensive b/c we included educational materials, had a follow-up survey, went through IRB, etc.
However, it validates @amandalhu's 17,000 mask giveaway, those of cities and fed govt's.
As a #psychologist, there is 1 big truth I believe w/my heart. If you talk to most ppl in a way that's reasonable, about 97% will feel empowered to take actions to improve their lives & communities.
As true for COVID as anything else. We just need more courageous leadership. 7/
With N95s extremely popular during #COVID surges, what's the national strategy?
The U.S. had a stockpile and started giving them out for free (after my psychology research team 🤣). There are no known plans to buy and distribute more.
Transmission continues to decline. About 1 in 161 people in the U.S. are infectious, the lowest levels since July 1. Transmission levels are higher than during 27% of the pandemic, but a good time to catch up on delayed care. 1/4
I have some concerns about Biobot's real-time data quality at the moment. Their real-time data have over-reported levels the past 8 weeks (11% last week, previously 6%, 10%, 7%, 5%, 9%, 4%, 5%) relative to later corrections. Huge bias!
2/4
Qualitatively, the over-reporting in real-time data lead me to believe there's a 50-50 chance we see a May "wavelet" versus continued decline for a couple months. Some of the county-level Biobot data seem implausible (e.g., levels of "3" in Mason County, WA, but others too). 3/4
31 Reasons Why the New 1-Day COVID Isolation Policy is Wrong
#1
Experts in modeling and testing know that people are infectious with COVID for an average of 7 days, with substantial variability around that average.
#2
People use defense mechanisms to temporarily avoid the death anxiety evoked by thinking of COVID. The too-short 5-day iso was an example of this (see final example).
Such defenses provide temporary relief and are almost always harmful long-term.
PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Forecast for the next month
Over the next month, we should see transmission fall from 790,000 infections/day toward more like a range of 200,000-450,000 infections per day, depending on better or worse scenarios.
That's "good" news in the relative sense for those putting off medical appointments the past 6 months, though still extremely high transmission in any objective sense.
See the online report for details on the models.
Surge in Context
At this point in the surge, it is clear that the peak transmission day was around December 27 (1.92 million/day), and the midpoint of “surging” infections (>1 million/day) was around January 9.
We are estimated to have had 85 total days with >1 million infections per day (November 28 through February 20) during the surge, though these numbers may still fluctuate with corrections the next few weeks.
The low-point leading into the surge was October 18 at 547,000 infections/day. Infections have been at “wave” levels (>500,000 infections/day or higher) since the onset of the late summer wave surpassed that milestone on July 27. We are estimated to dip below 500,000 infections/day around March 6.
This is very unfortunate timing because the medical facilities that enacted universal masking may end policies on March 1. Many were hoping for a period of lower transmission before such policies ended. As of today, the estimated low point for transmission is March 27 (348,000 infections/day), but the level and date are subject to much uncertainty.
PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Current State of the Pandemic
🔹73 million infections in the U.S. in 2024 (so far)
🔹790,000 daily infections
🔹1.66% (1 in 60) actively infectious
🔹40,000+ resulting #LongCOVID cases/day
Deeper Dive
Transmission is finally starting to decline again, and expect major declines the next four week.
U.S. wastewater levels indicate that COVID transmission is higher than during 58.4% of the days of the pandemic (down from 85.9% a week ago). Transmission is lower than 41.6% of the pandemic.
As we noted the past two weeks, we believed the post-peak hill was itself peaking on around February 7th and that last week’s slightly higher values might get retroactively corrected downward. That was, in fact, the case (the peak was the 7th), and transmission has fallen further since.
We are still at very high “wave” levels, but no longer “surging” at over a million infections/day. The big picture remains very bad, but this is good news for people putting off medical appointments for months.
PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Risks in Group Settings
Although transmission is falling, it's easy to get distracted by the relative changes and ignore that the absolute risk remains high, especially in large groups with limited or no mitigation.
In a group of 10, there's a 15% at least one person is actively infectious. In a group of 30, it's a 40% chance, and so forth. Almost nobody would take those chances of a serious illness if informed and capable of grappling with the seriousness of that risk without becoming defensive. Unfortunately, a lot of institutions are pushing minimizer narratives if not directly forcing students and workers into more dangerous settings.
Dr. Moriarty & other modelers know people are infectious for an average of about 7 days, per high-quality studies. Many for much longer.
Dr. Mina's pinned Tweet lays out a sample timeline.
Sending kids to school on Day 2 positive will essentially maximize infections. 2/4
The consequence of the California 1-day isolation policy is that many parents and grandparents will develop serious health conditions and too often die prematurely.
Bad for families. Good for inspiring the next generation of bereavement workers.
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PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 5, 2024
We are seeing escalating transmission in a post-peak hill.
🔹2.8% (1 in 36) actively infectious
🔹1.3 million infections/day
🔹Hill peaks in 2 days 🤞
🔹>65,000 resulting #LongCOVID cases/day
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PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 5, 2024
We began to see evidence of a post-peak hill 3 weeks ago. I was skeptical. The real-time data now bear this out. Hopefully we are not in a Terminator-style scenario where the technology outsmarts the maker. 🤣
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PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 5, 2024
Zooming out to the full pandemic, we see transmission higher than a week ago, and higher than 87.8% of the pandemic.
Nearly 10 million infections/week. >50 million estimated infections so far in 2024 in the U.S. alone.