Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 26, 2022 11 tweets 12 min read Read on X
Empowered communities want free #N95 masks!

Our new pre-print shows that people are excited to use N95s during COVID surges when given them for free w/helpful information on their evidence & how to use them.
1/
psyarxiv.com/f76vw Study abstract: People want...Project banner: Free N95 Qu...Aegle N95, given away in th...
You might remember when we posted about the study back in December!

I hope you find the results useful. We tried to make the figures relatable, even if you're not reading science articles every day. Please let me know if you have questions!
2/

We gave out 2,500 #N95 masks in 5 packs to our racially & socioeconomically diverse community. Many used N95s for the 1st time. People treated us like we were giving them kidneys. So grateful!

97% used at least 1 N95 & 40% used all 5 within 1-mo!

3/
We called our #N95 giveaway study "Project #Bandura," named for the famous #psychologist who studied social learning.

Well -- people learned, socially! >80% of participants told others about N95s. Several enthusiasts shared w/dozens of ppl!
4/
Cost was the biggest barrier to sustained #N95 use!

Still, ppl planned to buy an average of >10 more N95s in the near future (2x what we gave them).

More interesting, if FREE, 88% would use N95s again. Once you pop, you can't stop!
5/
We only gave away 2,500 N95s. It was labor intensive b/c we included educational materials, had a follow-up survey, went through IRB, etc.

However, it validates @amandalhu's 17,000 mask giveaway, those of cities and fed govt's.

Free N95 & #BetterMasks are hugely popular!
6/
As a #psychologist, there is 1 big truth I believe w/my heart. If you talk to most ppl in a way that's reasonable, about 97% will feel empowered to take actions to improve their lives & communities.

As true for COVID as anything else. We just need more courageous leadership.
7/
With N95s extremely popular during #COVID surges, what's the national strategy?

The U.S. had a stockpile and started giving them out for free (after my psychology research team 🤣). There are no known plans to buy and distribute more.

8/11
Domestic manufacturers are selling off #N95 inventory & equipment after boom-and-bust cycles. Many are closing their doors.

It's a low-cost filter. For your face. That keeps you from getting sick & becoming disabled or dying.

What are we doing???
9/11
Thanks if you posted about #CovidisAirborne. The study is dedicated to you.

You converted me from cloth masks to N95s.

Shouldn't we have federal #policy priorities to make high-quality masks available to everyone during surges?

10/11

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More from @michael_hoerger

Jun 9
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

CDC wastewater surveillance data show transmission rising. This is our forecast if transmission growth follows typical patterns.

The high & low estimates could be thought of as optimistic & pessimistic scenarios for NB.1.8.1.Forecast graph: Rising transmission the next month
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

Notice that current transmission (red line, lower left) tracks closely with two years ago (yellow), slightly below the median (gray), and not far below last year (orange).

Consider each of these trajectories realistic scenarios.Image
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

All indications are that we are headed into the start of an 11th national wave in the U.S.

We could percolate near the lull point another couple weeks (fingers crossed), but that scenario is becoming less likely.Graph of 10 C19 waves
Read 7 tweets
Jun 3
1/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

National COVlD transmission recently fell to its lowest levels since the pre-Delta era.

It's go-time for many who have delayed medical appointments. The situation will likely get much worse in Jul/Aug.
2/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

An estimated 1 in 211 are actively infectious. Most states are "low" or "very low" per CDC.

The situation remains serious even in a relative "lull." >1.5 million weekly estimated infections to result in 600-900 excess deaths.C19 heat map
year over year graph, tracking closely with the median and past 2 years
Current Levels for Jun 2, 2025	 % of the Population Infectious	 0.5% (1 in 211)	 New Daily Infections	 227000	 New Weekly Infections	 1589000	 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases	 79,000 to 318,000	 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths	 600 to 900	 	 Monthly Forecast	 Average % of the Population Infectious	 0.7% (1 in 139)	 Average New Daily Infections	 344566.6667	 New Infections During the Next Month	 10337000	 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases	 517,000 to 2,067,000	 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths	 3,700 to 6,200	 	 Running Totals	 Infections Nationwide in 2025	 70132000	 Average Number of Infe...
Graph of the whole pandemic, 11th wave forthcoming
3/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

By the end of the month, we forecast an increase to 450k daily infections. If NB.1.8.1 takes off, closer to 600k. If overhyped, percolating only slightly higher.Past 12 months and forecast
Read 5 tweets
May 26
1) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The lull exit is coming. Despite being in a lull:

🔥1 in 180 actively infectious
🔥1.9 million weekly infections
🔥>93,000 new #LongCOVID cases from the week's infections
🔥1,100 excess deaths from the week's infections

This is a "lull."
2) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The forecast calls for a near-doubling in transmission the next month to 450k daily infections.

The 95% confidence interval includes flat transmission (percolating), or escalating to 650k (if NB.1.8.1 takes off). Forecasting graph, summarized in post
3) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

Looking at year-over-year transmission, 2025 (red) is closely tracking the median (gray).

It transmission accelerates, it could look more like last year (orange). If it slows, more like two years ago (yellow). Year-over-year graph summarized in post
Read 7 tweets
May 25
1) CDC & Biobot wastewater surveillance both show the West region in an apparent uptick in C19 transmission.

Here's the graph of regional transmission from CDC data with the West in green: Estimated Percentage Actively Infectious*						 		PMC Model		Raw CDC Data		 	National	0.6% (1 in 180)		0.5% (1 in 196)		 	Northeast	0.4% (1 in 236)		0.4% (1 in 257)		 	Midwest	0.5% (1 in 209)		0.4% (1 in 227)		 	South	0.6% (1 in 160)		0.6% (1 in 175)		 	West	0.8% (1 in 129)		0.7% (1 in 140)
2) This image zooms in on the West (green line) so you can see the apparent departure from the C19 lull more easily. Zoomed in graph from prior post. More stats in the ALT text there.
3) Biobot still provides national & regional C19 updates. They usually post sometime between Thursday morning & Saturday evening. IMO, their most recent data point can be viewed as the Wednesday of the prior week.

Like the CDC, they have an apparent uptick in the West (green). Biobot graph. What's striking is that the peak (for any region) is almost identical the past 3 waves, though the West apparently runs cooler on average. The West is presently highest and increasing, whereas the other regions are lower and still trending down at the time of these data.
Read 6 tweets
May 20
PMC COVlD Report, May 19, 2025 (U.S.)

In this national "lull" in transmission, we are seeing...
🔥A quarter-million daily infections
🔥90-360k Long COVlD cases from the week's infections
🔥600-1,100 deaths from the week's infections
🔥LA, SD, NE, & GU in high transmission10 waves of C19
Heat map, summarized in post
Current Levels for May 19, 2025	 % of the Population Infectious	 0.5% (1 in 185)	 New Daily Infections	 259000	 New Weekly Infections	 1813000	 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases	 91,000 to 363,000	 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths	 600 to 1,100	 	 Monthly Forecast	 Average % of the Population Infectious	 0.8% (1 in 129)	 Average New Daily Infections	 371566.6667	 New Infections During the Next Month	 11147000	 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases	 557,000 to 2,229,000	 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths	 4,000 to 6,600	 	 Running Totals	 Infections Nationwide in 2025	 66986000	 Average Number of I...
Year-over-year graph, currently closely tracking the median, Y4, and Y5
Full report: pmc19.com/data
PMC COVlD updates are also posted periodically on Plip Plop:

tiktok.com/@michael_hoerg…
Read 6 tweets
May 15
1) Good luck getting any new federal research to support #LongCOVID until "covid" is dropped from the dirty words that get grant applications triaged to the trash bin.

You know which senator to call.

I just did, and got a staffer instead of voicemail.Lengthy list of words that get federal grants triaged to the trash bin, unfunded after favorable review, or defunded if already in progress.   Includes "Covid-19," and no, it's not a matter of simply restating as "SARS2" or "The Rona." It might make it one step further in the review process, but this gets checked closed, and it will get canned. Hundreds of hours of work, flushed down the toilet.   And that's the point.
2) I told the staffer that #LongCOVID is affecting millions and that no research will be funded to address this while "covid" remains on the banned word list.

I asked if they wanted to hear more. He did...

Here's the word list, btw
pen.org/banned-words-l…
3) I told them about my family member who was a strong Special Forces veteran, got covid once, & according to their neurologist, it triggered #LongCOVID in the form of Dementia w/Lewy Bodies.

DLB is one of the worst conditions imaginable. After a 2yr battle, they died in 2024.
Read 5 tweets

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