There are now only 4 countries in the world who have mastered and internalized geopolitics:
- USA
- UK
- Russia
- China
There are some who used to be great but now powerless or clueless. And some don’t have it in their DNA.
🧵
Geopolitics is art. And it requires a very sophisticated way of thinking. It's not tribal screaming or raw power.
It's about survival, alliances, conquests, and expansion of power.
And it takes centuries of experience to internalize and master this art.
Naturally, European powers would be ideal candidates. They had to survive constant wars with neighbors, and then go around the world to rule foreign people in faraway lands.
The ones with the longest history Europe would Italy and Greece.
But Greece lost its aura long time ago. And the Roman Empire under the Italians also lost power long time ago.
Thus, they don't have "it" anymore.
Similarly, other big European Empires like Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary, Austria etc. are also small now and have become inconsequential.
Tremendous losses must have crushed their pride. They cannot dream big anymore.
France has a long history of Empires and colonialism. So, it still has some mojo.
Germany had a very brief shining moment (1871 unification to WW1), which was followed by defeat & humiliation. Never learned geopolitics.
Germany has been repeatedly fooled by the Anglosphere. WW1 and WW2 are not what you're taught in school.
And Germans are still so clueless that they are committing economic suicide for the third time.
No hope.
The one with the most experience is, of course, Britain.
But America, who started thinking like an Empire only in the 1890s, quickly surpassed the UK.
USA is a fast learner but the lack of maturity shows.
The US employs the same crude strategies over and over.
In Asia, the three big candidates are India, Japan, and China.
India had big empires about 1000 years ago. Indian emperors conquered parts of Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia etc.
But India lost the midas touch, got fragmented and defeated easily.
British employed simple divide-and-rule strategies to conquer/rule India. It was too easy.
There are no real geopolitical thinkers in India anymore.
There is no history to relate to. This is why Indians resort to myths from Hinduism. There is no role geopolitics role model.
Japan was like Germany. Fast rise in the late 19th century but got played like a fiddle by the US/UK.
After WW2, Japan started to rise again but got crushed by the US with the Plaza Accord.
Japan is on a sad trajectory now.
That leaves China. With 2000+ years of centralized, modern state, China has the DNA of dynasties and empires.
It didn't want to open up to the world and didn't try to colonize the world.
China built the Wall to not to conquer but to keep the barbarians out.
So, this was/is China's Achilles Heel. If China had been a little bit more curious about the Europeans, it would have caught up with the industrial revolution.
But China is also a fast learner like the US ... with the added benefit of 2000+ years of statecraft.
Unlike America's crude geopolitical strategies, China can reach into the depths of its history and learn from Sun Tzu and other philosophers and kings.
Oh, then there is Russia, the last one.
Russia is a great power with 1000 years of Empire. The USSR brought in a strange ideology -- communism -- into a traditional Empire and screwed up a lot of things.
USA now spreads cartoonish propaganda about Russia, but people like Putin have savvy geopolitics in their DNA.
This decade will witness dramatic struggles between these four powers: US + UK versus Russia + China.
All the others in the world are either puppets or bystanders.
END.
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The U.S. will default on its debt by 2030. That’s why the U.S. must defeat Russia and China soon. After that, the U.S. can reengineer the global financial system again with Bretton Woods III.
Three reasons why real estate in China won’t just “collapse”. Plus, one bonus geopolitical reason. 🧵
Yes, many Americans get super-duper excited about the demise of Chinese economy, but sorry to break it to ya.
#1: Most Chinese fully own their homes — i.e., they don’t have any mortgage.
Thus, such people are not going to sell their homes even if the prices go down even dramatically. It’s just theoretical loss and doesn’t affect their lives.
So, no real estate dumping by such owners
#2: As prices go down, housing will attract new buyers.
There are many young people who can’t afford homes right now. For them, houses will become more affordable if prices go down, say, 20%.
SCO: The most strategic and visionary group started by China.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
- 60% of the area of Eurasia
- 40% of the world population
- 30%+ of global GDP
Russia, China, India, Central Asia, and now Iran, the new member. Soon the Middle East?
In a typical Asian style, SCO is very inclusive and welcoming. Plenty of other countries are invited as guests, dialogue partners, observers etc.
From ASEAN to Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
SCO originally started in 2001 as a way to counter terrorism, which was a huge problem in the 1990s, thanks to US shenanigans in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Bosnia, Kosovo etc.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and others in Central Asia were afraid that their moderate Islam was being hijacked.