Dave Keating Profile picture
Sep 27 โ€ข 3 tweets โ€ข 1 min read
Thread: What's the latest on the idea for an ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ price cap on #RussianGas? (1/3)

The momentum has shifted toward a cap on *all* gas imports. 13 member states have signed a letter calling for it: ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น

Enough for qualified majority? Note who's missing (๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช)
The Commission wants a price cap just on ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ gas, fearful that capping all gas imports will put the EU at a disadvantage in global markets - gas and LNG will go to ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง etc who will pay more.

But Council is worried a cap on just ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ gas would be subject to legal challenge. (2/3)
At the same time, the falling price of gas is taking some of the wind out of the sails for this idea.

In short - a gas price cap is a huge gamble. It will not be on the table for this Friday's emergency meeting of energy ministers in Brussels. Each day it looks less likely (3/3) Image

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More from @DaveKeating

Sep 29
BREAK - Liz Truss *will* be attending the 1st summit of the #EuropeanPoliticalCommunity in Prague next week.

In fact, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง now fully on board to JOIN this European community and wants to host the 2nd meeting (!?!)

An astonishing u-turn.
A refresher: #EuropeanPoliticalCommunity is ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทPresident @EmmanuelMacron's idea for a forum larger than ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ where European issues can be discussed. An 'outer ring'

Many suspect it's meant as a halfway house to park aspiring members. And a former member.
worldpoliticsreview.com/treaty-politicโ€ฆ
This 1st EPC summit in Prague next Thursday, with ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ27 leaders plus invited ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฝ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ, will have to answer many questions.

The first: what the hell is the EPC? And how would it be different from the Council of Europe in Strasbourg? Nobody yet knows.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 29
Now confirmed: ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บCommission is *not* putting a proposal to cap gas prices on the table for tomorrow's emergency meeting of energy ministers.

In the working document circulated to capitals, the Commission warns that the idea, pushed by 15 countries, would do more harm than good. Image
The pro-cap countries, who between them would have a qualified majority for approval, are angry no proposal has emerged from the Commission (who must initiate legislation for it to be approved)
Wealthy countries that could afford the higher gas prices are opposed to the cap. There is fear the gas will just go elsewhere on global market to countries willing to pay more.

Note that countries with a current account surplus are the ones opposed. politico.eu/newsletter/bruโ€ฆ Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 28
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บPresident @vonderleyen now announcing an 8th package of #RussiaSanctions

"Last week #Russia has escalated the war in #Ukraine to a new level. The sham referenda organized in the territories that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ occupied, are an illegal attempt to grab land and change intl borders by force" Image
"We do not accept the sham referenda," says ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บPresident @vonderleyen, "or any type of annexation in Ukraine."

"And we are determined to make the Kremlin pay for this further escalation."
The new #RussiaSanctions include:

๐Ÿ™…โ€โ™‚๏ธ1300 more people & entities on targeted list
๐Ÿšš"Sweeping" ban on Russian imports worth โ‚ฌ7bn
๐Ÿ’พMore key technologies banned from export to Russia
๐Ÿ•ด๏ธBan on EU nationals on Russian company boards
๐Ÿ›ข๏ธPrice cap on Russian oil for 3rd countries
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28
Latest on the suspected Russian attack on Baltic Sea gas pipelines:

There is now a consensus that the ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐPM's assessment is correct, this was deliberate sabotage. The question is, how can ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ respond to a Russian attack in EU waters?
The first response is that European countries are this morning rushing to protect their energy infrastructure from Russian attack.

There is particular fear about floating LNG terminals, the lifelines to get non-Russian gas this winter.
The second response is that EU navies will have to be activated to protect maritime assets from Russian attacks.

The energy cold war just turned into an energy hot war, as Politico notes.
politico.eu/article/balticโ€ฆ
Read 10 tweets
Sep 27
As usual, the @EUCouncil is where good ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ legislation goes to die.

At Friday's Energy Council, national governments are planning to water down the Commission's emergency energy measures proposed earlier this month. euractiv.com/section/politiโ€ฆ
Amendments drafted by the Czechs, who hold the rotating Council presidency, would allow countries to set higher caps on surplus revenue from energy companies than what is set at EU level for the #WindfallTax.

Energy analysts are warning this will create distortion in the market.
"Allowing countries to deviate from it and have lower caps creates confusion and uncertainty โ€“ and will slow down the investments we so badly need,โ€ says @WindEurope's Giles Dickson.

Commission also warned: โ€œuncoordinated caps...may lead to significant distortions".
Read 4 tweets
Sep 26
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ reaction to yesterday's ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น election, which has paved the way for #Italy's first far-right leader since Mussolini:

We are likely to see something similar to 2018 when the populist 5 Stars won - an initial effort to appeal to #Meloni's pro-EU instincts and not to isolate her.
What happened in #Italy yesterday isn't an isolated case.

Across Europe, far-right parties that trace their roots to Fascist movements of the early 20th century are rebranding with a softer face and scoring big electoral wins, as the #Sweden Democrats did 2 weeks ago.
The reaction in Europe: the center has been mostly quiet with no one wanting to criticise #Meloni directly. But some elected leaders have issued general warnings.

"Populism always ends in catastrophe," says #Spain's centre-left foreign minister.
Read 8 tweets

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