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Richard Baldwin

Sep 29 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

@robertshrimsley

“economy is exhibiting comorbidities of a badly botched Brexit that weakened resistance to shocks. When markets were spooked last week, little could reassure them” @robertshrimsley
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Brexit ideology lies behind the UK’s market rout on.ft.com/3Chp9Qg
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Zingers in🧵

@robertshrimsley

“The desperate pursuit of unorthodox growth strategies was driven in part by the 4 per cent hit to productivity over 15 years that has been consistently ascribed to the Brexit deal” @robertshrimsley

“This is what happens .if you spend 6 years chipping away at the institutions that underpin political stability, unlawfully suspending parliament, sniping at the judiciary and eroding checks and balances
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you cannot be surprised if investors start to worry”

@robertshrimsley

“the Tories are now in bunker mode, listening only to those they already agree with
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“We are now watching the real-time implosion of the governing party
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“It’s going to be a hell of a show, though sadly the tickets will prove expensive” @robertshrimsley #BrexitReality

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More from @BaldwinRE

Richard Baldwin

@BaldwinRE

Sep 30

@ChrisGiles_

“Economic orthodoxy is not ideological but simply the accumulated knowledge &experience of what tends to work best
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“It is .a constantly evolving body of thinking &experimenting in the real world
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“It is always open to challenge”
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@ChrisGiles_
on.ft.com/3renqov

“We have had a consensus of the Treasury, of economists, with the Financial Times, with other outlets, peddling a particular type of economic policy for 20 years. It hasn’t delivered growth,” #Truss said
•
Lessons for when economic orthodoxy bites back on.ft.com/3renqov

“There is no doubt that the orthodoxy can get things wrong. But it learns from its mistakes. Far from every element of the “Washington consensus” — the economic orthodoxy of the 1990s — survived the Asian financial crisis in the latter part of that decade.

Read 4 tweets

Richard Baldwin

@BaldwinRE

Sep 30

@TimHarford

“Prioritising growth in the recent past would have avoided some obvious policy blunders:
👉May’s insistence on leaving the EU’s single market
👉Osborne’s disastrous obsession with balancing the budget in the teeth of a deep recession” @TimHarford on.ft.com/3y3nZFc

“But while recent governments have demonstrated how to depress growth, we know far less about how to increase it. And Truss’s statements so far do not inspire confidence.”

“It is good to have a prime minister focused on the goal of growth, but what we really need is for her to show signs of being able to stick the ball in the back of the net.” #Truss #Growth

Read 4 tweets

Richard Baldwin

@BaldwinRE

Sep 28

Great spy novel premise
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Maybe the target was the new Norwegian pipeline & they mistakenly hit Nord Stream 2? Nord Stream 1 hit was to confuse motives theguardian.com/world/2022/sep…

Spy novel plot thickens
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“The incidents took place close to – but just outside – the 12-mile territorial waters of Denmark’s Bornholm in the Baltic Sea, the kind of calibration that might be expected from a state actor mindful of the country’s Nato membership”

“Given Russia’s problems in Ukraine, the idea that Moscow would dare to step up by targeting western undersea pipelines and cables in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere remains hard to believe”theguardian.com/world/2022/sep…

Read 4 tweets

Richard Baldwin

@BaldwinRE

May 17

Icymi
Former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev:
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‘I don’t buy this talk that Putin cannot back down’
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Snippets in 🧵👇
on.ft.com/3JDleyx

“I don’t buy all this talk that he cannot back down. For [Joe] Biden, [Boris] Johnson, the western politicians, backing down means you will lose public opinion.”
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Putin does not have this worry.

“Russian population will suffer but it’s a necessary evil, he says. “Unfortunately to wake them up you have to create a situation” where the empty refrigerator pierces the propaganda being shown on TV, he says.”

Read 4 tweets