Dave Keating Profile picture
Sep 29 5 tweets 3 min read
BREAK - Liz Truss *will* be attending the 1st summit of the #EuropeanPoliticalCommunity in Prague next week.

In fact, 🇬🇧 now fully on board to JOIN this European community and wants to host the 2nd meeting (!?!)

An astonishing u-turn.
A refresher: #EuropeanPoliticalCommunity is 🇫🇷President @EmmanuelMacron's idea for a forum larger than 🇪🇺 where European issues can be discussed. An 'outer ring'

Many suspect it's meant as a halfway house to park aspiring members. And a former member.
worldpoliticsreview.com/treaty-politic…
This 1st EPC summit in Prague next Thursday, with 🇪🇺27 leaders plus invited 🇺🇦🇹🇷🇬🇧🇳🇴🇲🇰🇨🇭🇦🇱🇦🇲🇦🇿🇧🇦🇬🇪🇮🇸🇽🇰🇱🇮🇲🇩🇲🇪🇷🇸, will have to answer many questions.

The first: what the hell is the EPC? And how would it be different from the Council of Europe in Strasbourg? Nobody yet knows.
#LizTruss suddenly flipped from disinterested scorn toward #EuropeanPoliticalCommunity to wanting to take it over

🇬🇧 told 🇪🇺 tonight not only do they now want to join, they basically want to run the thing. They want to change name to European Political Forum, & host it in London
Why does Truss want to rename this to 'European Political Forum'?

Because Macron's suggested EPC name sounds too much like the European Community, the name of the EU before 1993.

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More from @DaveKeating

Sep 29
Now confirmed: 🇪🇺Commission is *not* putting a proposal to cap gas prices on the table for tomorrow's emergency meeting of energy ministers.

In the working document circulated to capitals, the Commission warns that the idea, pushed by 15 countries, would do more harm than good.
The pro-cap countries, who between them would have a qualified majority for approval, are angry no proposal has emerged from the Commission (who must initiate legislation for it to be approved)
Wealthy countries that could afford the higher gas prices are opposed to the cap. There is fear the gas will just go elsewhere on global market to countries willing to pay more.

Note that countries with a current account surplus are the ones opposed. politico.eu/newsletter/bru…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 28
🇪🇺President @VonDerLeyen now announcing an 8th package of #RussiaSanctions

"Last week #Russia has escalated the war in #Ukraine to a new level. The sham referenda organized in the territories that 🇷🇺 occupied, are an illegal attempt to grab land and change intl borders by force"
"We do not accept the sham referenda," says 🇪🇺President @VonDerLeyen, "or any type of annexation in Ukraine."

"And we are determined to make the Kremlin pay for this further escalation."
The new #RussiaSanctions include:

🙅‍♂️1300 more people & entities on targeted list
🚚"Sweeping" ban on Russian imports worth €7bn
💾More key technologies banned from export to Russia
🕴️Ban on EU nationals on Russian company boards
🛢️Price cap on Russian oil for 3rd countries
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28
Latest on the suspected Russian attack on Baltic Sea gas pipelines:

There is now a consensus that the 🇩🇰PM's assessment is correct, this was deliberate sabotage. The question is, how can 🇪🇺 respond to a Russian attack in EU waters?
The first response is that European countries are this morning rushing to protect their energy infrastructure from Russian attack.

There is particular fear about floating LNG terminals, the lifelines to get non-Russian gas this winter.
The second response is that EU navies will have to be activated to protect maritime assets from Russian attacks.

The energy cold war just turned into an energy hot war, as Politico notes.
politico.eu/article/baltic…
Read 10 tweets
Sep 27
As usual, the @EUCouncil is where good 🇪🇺 legislation goes to die.

At Friday's Energy Council, national governments are planning to water down the Commission's emergency energy measures proposed earlier this month. euractiv.com/section/politi…
Amendments drafted by the Czechs, who hold the rotating Council presidency, would allow countries to set higher caps on surplus revenue from energy companies than what is set at EU level for the #WindfallTax.

Energy analysts are warning this will create distortion in the market.
"Allowing countries to deviate from it and have lower caps creates confusion and uncertainty – and will slow down the investments we so badly need,” says @WindEurope's Giles Dickson.

Commission also warned: “uncoordinated caps...may lead to significant distortions".
Read 4 tweets
Sep 26
🇪🇺 reaction to yesterday's 🇮🇹 election, which has paved the way for #Italy's first far-right leader since Mussolini:

We are likely to see something similar to 2018 when the populist 5 Stars won - an initial effort to appeal to #Meloni's pro-EU instincts and not to isolate her.
What happened in #Italy yesterday isn't an isolated case.

Across Europe, far-right parties that trace their roots to Fascist movements of the early 20th century are rebranding with a softer face and scoring big electoral wins, as the #Sweden Democrats did 2 weeks ago.
The reaction in Europe: the center has been mostly quiet with no one wanting to criticise #Meloni directly. But some elected leaders have issued general warnings.

"Populism always ends in catastrophe," says #Spain's centre-left foreign minister.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 25
Polls have just closed in the #ItalianElection, here is the exit poll just published. Image
If these exit polls are correct, the far-right has a solid basis to form a governing coalition in #Italy.

Brothers of Italy has performed on the low end of what polls were predicting but are still the clear winners of today's #ItalianElection.
Here's the full breakdown of the #ItalianElection exit poll by party:

RIGHT (total 43.5%)
FdI (Meloni): 25%
Lega (Salvini): 11.5%
FI (Berlusconi): 7%

LEFT (total 26%)
PD: 20%
SI/Greens: 3.5%
+Eur: 2.5%

POPULIST
5MS: 15.5%

CENTRE
Azione/Italia Viva: 7%
Read 5 tweets

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