1/9) Here is my prediction on the next steps with @CelsiusNetwork Chapter 11. I will update you if my opinions change. Come back at the end of this process & judge my forecasts.
2/9) Like @investvoyager the debtor will release a reorg. plan that won’t get past regulators & regulators will file motions to reject the plan as it will involve $CEL & assume #DEX makes it exempt from securities laws. You may want it, but regulators don’t. They will object.
3/9) This will drive the vultures into a bidding process where the vultures will try & buy the assets we paid for without our consent & FTX & TradFi will give us pennies on the dollar. It will be a lot worse for creditors than @investvoyager due to size of hole.
4/9) Creditors will vote against it & we demand a reorg. plan organized by the @CelsiusUcc that complies with securities laws & puts creditors first that looks similar to #DepositorsFirst strategy I originally presented to @CelsiusNetwork prior to Chapter 11
5/9) I am happy to speed up by working with @CelsiusNetwork at Stage 1 & create a mega reorg. where @CelsiusNetwork assets are used for creditors with securities compliance from @BankToTheFuture & lending compliance from @SALTLending & you get revenue securities, equity & debt
6/9) If #Celsius want to play the game, burn more cash & risk Chapter 7 then we will wait till Stage 3 after creditors reject the bid & opt for community reorg. headed by @CelsiusUcc if @CelsiusNetwork play the game for too long, but it will cost us a lot of money & risk.
7/9) IMHO - best & fastest path is object to exclusivity extension if we don’t see a compliance-centered reorg. from @CelsiusNetwork that gives creditors benefit to all assets plus equity in a compliant company. We can then skip the bid circus & move to step 3 before cash burnt
8/9) How much do we burn given that @CelsiusNetwork runs out of funds by end of year & regulators won’t let them sell our assets (A good thing as we want them to be used for us) whilst examiner releases pre-petition scans that risk forcing Chapter 7 cases.stretto.com/public/x191/11…
9/9) We have to win this game for the sake of all victims. Avoid Chapter 7. Reorg. in a way that regulators are most likely to agree to & ensure all #Celsius assets are used to benefit creditors only. Give creditors equity in a promising compliant company that can survive.
Got questions? What will happen this week? Set a reminder for my upcoming Space! twitter.com/i/spaces/1zqKV…

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More from @SimonDixonTwitt

Sep 30
TL:DR @CelsiusNetwork announces the process for buying all its assets. Deadline for bids November 15. Hearing to approve the sale November 28. cases.stretto.com/public/x191/11… Remember how we maximize recovery IMHO.
I’ll discuss on my AMA today. Set a remover here twitter.com/i/spaces/1ZkKz…
Here is the timetable
Read 4 tweets
Sep 29
1/9) The Headline - “Voyager's auction did not serve depositors' best interests, alleges Wave Financial rep” cointelegraph.com/news/voyager-s… via @Cointelegraph Let me share my opinion on why this happened based upon public information & what we can learn for @CelsiusNetwork
2/9) The hole was smaller for @investvoyager over @CelsiusNetwork so cash bid goes further than offer involving filling the hole with financial innovation. For @CelsiusNetwork the chance of a cash bid filling a $2bn-$3bn hole is out of the equation - it makes no business sense
3/9) “Wave's proposal sought to "restore value in the $VGX token via new and improved utility, saving $200M worth of funds and redistributing assets back to existing Voyager customers,"
Read 9 tweets
Sep 22
IF THEY WANT YOU TO TAKE THE HIT PUSH FOR EQUITY TO FILL THE HOLE: - LATEST ON @investvoyager - 3 Bidders Compete in Voyager Digital Auction With Different Approaches to Platform, Upside, Cash Consideration
FTX Trading, Binance and CrossTower are competing in Voyager Digital’s auction, using two different approaches to acquiring the bankrupt crypto exchange’s assets, according to sources.
FTX & Binance seek to transition current Voyager customers to their own respective platforms & give the Voyager customers their pro rata share of the coins the debtors possess, taking into account potential shortfalls because Voyager may not recover coins it loaned prepetition,
Read 12 tweets
Aug 11
1) People keep asking me when @CelsiusNetwork creditors will get their money back. My best guess. In the next 2 months there may be liquidity where you can sell your claim on an exchange if you’re willing to accept 25% of your claim in $USD & it may take a further month to arrive
2) I believe in 6 months from now you may be able to settle with @CelsiusNetwork & receive 50% paid in crypto, but it could go through several rounds of objections on how to pay it in-kind & you may get paid in 9 months at best.
3) I don’t believe crypto long can happen compliantly & will be objected by regulators for another 3-6 months causing delays so in 9 months the @CelsiusUcc, creditors & court may accept crypto in-kind plus equity or cash topup if another bidder can demonstrate compliance.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 10
The US Trustee assigned to oversee #Celsius bankruptcy case filed an objection yesterday (9 August 22) seeking to challenge the company’s motions for court approval to sell its mined bitcoin “in ordinary course” and make “de minimis” asset transfers.
The objection argues that Celsius incorrectly characterized its motions as “in the ordinary course” and “de minimis,” since there is nothing ordinary about them.
Through its bitcoin motion, the debtor seeks “broad authority” to monetize its bitcoin, the US Trustee said, but has failed to provide transparency into its business activities or its crypto holdings.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 9
People ask me how I invest all the time? 3 buckets - Spending, Saving & Investing. I spend Stablecoins convertible to fiat. I save Digital Hard Sound Money - #Bitcoin. I invest small % in POS $ETH, debt, equity & securities (DeFi & CeFi for high risk, high returns) Image
I also have a portfolio in traditional markets ready for inflation, deflation, economic growth, economic decline, bank failure, war, pandemic, financial crisis & a future of bigger governments powered by Central Bank Digital Currencies so I’m calm whatever happens. Image
I expect my #Bitcoin savings to outperform my traditional portfolio long term & #BTC is a mission to better the world. I expect my crypto securities to blow up frequently or outperform hopefully increasing my #Bitcoin savings. It’s more stress than saving in #Bitcoin but also fun Image
Read 7 tweets

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