#TSLA is now 20% down from its 200 day moving average. The Chinese are truly going to take over the world in terms of EVs. @DillonLoomis22 from Electrified breaks it down better than most.
My thoughts are similar.
A thread...
1/ Time to panic?
You're starting to see peak fear in the market now. Every other YouTuber is telling you the world is ending. Should you panic sell?
I dont have a crystal ball. Every couple months since I started investing, there have been Market Crash videos.
2/ even Michael Burry has consistently, twice a year predicted a market crash. Yet, as a critical thinker and someone who loves math and logic, the data is more important.
To date, no one has successfully timed the market.
Time in the market always beat timing the market.
3/ Time to be Rich
Under these terrible macro conditions, is when people truly get rich with their investments. If you're still in the accumulating phase, simply keep buying as you have the money. I have not seen Teslas thesis change. They are growing massively.
4/ Be Careful
Don't use margin or leverage. Don't try to time the market. Don't try to trade. Just sit tight and you'll come out ahead of everyone.
You can't know if there will be a crash. And even if there is, where is the bottom? We could already be at the bottom, or not.
5/ Invest only money you can afford.
Don't invest money you may need 1 to 2 years down the road. Always only invest for the long term. Think of the stock market as long term Fixed Deposits. Something you can't touch for at least 3 to 5 years.
6/ Huge opportunity for those Ark investors.
If you're down 60-80% on ETFs like Ark or meme stocks or hype stocks, time to take advantage of #TSLA low price now. Move them to Tesla now because I believe you can catch a ride up again. Else you may be stuck with your losses
7/ Teslas future.
Tesla is as bright as ever. Nothing has changed fundamentally in the company. This is why you now have an opportunity to acquire as many shares as you can as long as the macro stays bad. Once the macro improves, you'll see the market rebound with a vengeance.
8/ FUD on demand.
Remember I said the Chinese will take over the world? Yes they will. But Tesla isn't targeting the entire auto market. They are only targeting 20m cars.
There is no demand problem for Teslas. Tesla has always planned to adjust price to demand.
9/ Pricing Lever
Over the last 1 year or so, Tesla has increased their prices by over 20%. That's because demand outstrip supply by so much the wait times were getting ridiculous. As they ramp up production, expect to see prices drop to increase TAM.
10/ Model SEXY + CT
I can see Tesla can easily ride these models up to 5-6m cars. Heck, the CT alone could do 2-3m easily IMO.
After that, expect to see new cheaper categories of cars. These will bring Tesla up to 20m cars.
11/ US Tax credits.
If Tesla qualifies for the US tax credits, I do not see Tesla needing to lower prices at all. Teslas may be the no brainer cars for the middle class after considering EV credits, cheaper mileage, cheaper maintenance, better resale value, etc.
12/ Not financial advice.
I'm posting this as my opinion. Not financial advice. I'm a long term Tesla investor since 2019. I have seen at least 5 or more tesla crashes and just by sitting thru them I am outperforming the market by a huge margin.
Tesla story is just beginning
13/ Please share this thread. You may be able to help a new investor who is panicking now.
I have made these mistakes earlier in my investing life and wished someone told me these things.
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1/ Remember I made a post about why I think it's crucial for Tesla to make a phone?
My thinking is simple. I believe whoever owns the OS of the future, the screens, the gateway or eco system will ultimately be able to disrupt everyone else.
2/ The only threat to Tesla was always going to be Apple or Google, if they can get their act together. In the future I see other legacy autos may use android or apple car play. There is no way for legacy to succeed in dev their own software.
This is right on target and is my own conclusion as well. That being said, to get to 20m cars annually, expect to see ASP to go down over time. Anyone thinking ASP will remain the same aren't living in the real world. There is no demand issue. Tsla will match demand with price.
2/ what I see happening is Tesla reducing prices and also offering new cheaper trims for 3Y for next 2 years. Maybe reach 5 to 6m total. Then they'll already have new compact models to pick up the growth to 20m.
3/ CT. And don't forget the Cybertruck coming next year. I honestly believe this truck will sell in the millions alone. Remember the US truck market is over 10m. I can easily see the CT selling 2-3m easily.
Boston Dynamics Atlas may look like a robot that can do anything. Even Parkour. But it's design specs are very different from Teslabot. Here's my initial take.
A thread.
1/ Power
Atlas uses a 3.7kwh battery pack, while Teslabot uses 2.3kwh.
Atlas is designed for speed, high power, mostly for show. Battery life is about 1hr.
Teslabot is designed for specific use case and to work 8 hours on 2.3kwh. Efficiency over power.
2/ Weight
This goes back to point one above. Thr Atlas is designed to mimic what a human body can do at all cost. It's big, bulky and extremely heavy at over 150kg.
Teslabot needs to be small, efficient, do what needs done in the least amount of power 🔋. It's only 73kg
The idea is that robotaxis will be so cheap, it makes ownership of cars seems expensive. This was based on Cathy Woods faulty math. She used current ICEV cost of ownership to compare with future BEV robo taxis.
3/ In reality, BEVs are on a rapid cost curve decline. They will be far cheaper to make and operate in the future. On top of that, you'll see pod like city cars that will cost less than $3K. These will replace scooters in developing countries.
/1st Principles argument for investing in #Tesla. A thread on how I model #tsla at 3k by 2025 and 6k by 2030.
My objective is not to maximize Tesla but to look at it in the most conservative way to see if it's worth the risk reward. See thread.
2/ First, what is the question. @elonmusk always said, asking the right question is the hard part.
So,my question for myself and people I recommend to Tesla is this.
What is the risk reward? Remember if you're diversifying and only investing in 1 company, you better be right.
3/ So, once I understood the problem, the solution is simple. There is no point drawing the most rosy picture. Because when you maximize everything, chances of being wrong is high. So, I want to take a very conservative approach.