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S.L. Kanthan Profile picture
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Oct 6 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Global market share of exports of goods/merchandise in 2021:

China: 15%
USA: 7.9%
Germany: 7.8%
Japan: 3.4%
India: 1.9%

#manufacturing #trade #economy
In 2022, you can expect China’s share to grow and Germany’s share to plummet.

Thanks to anti-Russia sanctions, Germany’s factories are being shuttered.

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More from @Kanthan2030

S.L. Kanthan Profile picture
Oct 7
🧵 on devastation of Russia in the 1990s and the rise of #VladimirPutin Image
When the Soviet Union collapsed — officially in Dec 1991 - Russians eagerly embraced America and Europe.

They wanted to be a part of the West and end the centuries-long conflict.

However, the next 8 years would prove to be disastrous beyond belief.
The US handpicked a puppet, Yeltsin, and surrounded him handlers who were really loyal to Wall Street.

For the next years, the US would prop up Yeltsin, who was an alcoholic and an incompetent clown. ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
S.L. Kanthan Profile picture
Oct 6
The US-Saudi fallout is a rare and shocking geopolitical event.

Both countries have a lot of leverage to hurt one another. 🧵
Saudi Arabia can start selling oil for Yuan and maybe for Euros.

The petrodollar is one of the key pillars of America’s Empire.

Take away the need for US dollar to buy oil, the value of US dollar evaporates! Inflation in USA will be double digits in a few days.
Of course, America’s options to retaliate are endless.

- Confiscate all Saudi assets denominated in US dollar

- Remotely turn off all the fighter jets, missile defense systems etc. in Saudi Arabia

- Give missiles to Houthis in Yemen

- Try to “eliminate” Prince Salman (MBS)
Read 6 tweets
S.L. Kanthan Profile picture
Oct 6
While real estate will deflate in China, the comparison with Japan of the 1990s is misleading. Three reasons listed in following tweets:

asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-…
1) Japan was forced by the US to commit economic suicide in the 1980s through the Plaza Accord.

That’s not happening with China — although the US tried to do it under Trump administration.
2) Under the Plaza Accord, Japan was forced to strengthen Yen (by whopping 200% between 1985 - 1995) and move many manufacturing factories to the US.

On the other hand, Chinese Yuan is safe and China’s exports and manufacturing are at record levels.
Read 4 tweets
S.L. Kanthan Profile picture
Oct 5
Michael Pettis is the Vanilla Ice of economics. He has ONE theory and he has been selling it for years!

Yes, China has to reduce dependence on infrastructure/real estate. But this Western obsession with consumption as a driver of growth is also flawed!

foreignaffairs.com/china/how-chin…
Look at the US. People just borrow and spend it on consumer goods. Or, people spend 16% of the GDP on “health” care, which is a scam in so many ways.

Are those better ways to get GDP growth than building a not-so-necessary high-speed rail?
In the US, people cannot save much. Vast majority of Americans live from paycheck to paycheck.

The only way to accumulate wealth is thru speculation — housing and/or stock markets.

This is casino capitalism. Terrible model.
Read 4 tweets
S.L. Kanthan Profile picture
Oct 5
I have a conspiracy theory about the India-China clash in 2020:

The US caused it!

Here’s how and why:

🧵
First, there’s no reason to believe that either side wanted a deadly clash.

The clash happened because both Indian and Chinese soldiers truly believed that they were within the boundaries of their countries.

Thus, they were angry that the other side was intruding.
However … after the incident, Indian Prime Minister Modi stated clearly that the Chinese had NOT entered the Indian territory!

How is that possible? In other words, why did the Indian soldiers believe otherwise?

My theory: The GPS system of the Indian soldiers was hacked!
Read 7 tweets
S.L. Kanthan Profile picture
Sep 26
There are now only 4 countries in the world who have mastered and internalized geopolitics:

- USA
- UK
- Russia
- China

There are some who used to be great but now powerless or clueless. And some don’t have it in their DNA.

🧵
Geopolitics is art. And it requires a very sophisticated way of thinking. It's not tribal screaming or raw power.

It's about survival, alliances, conquests, and expansion of power.

And it takes centuries of experience to internalize and master this art.
Naturally, European powers would be ideal candidates. They had to survive constant wars with neighbors, and then go around the world to rule foreign people in faraway lands.
Read 17 tweets

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