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Steven Pifer

Oct 8 • 4 tweets • 4 min read

Since Sept 26, leaks reported in both #NordStream1 trunklines & one #NordStream2 trunkline. Danish & Swedish officials said leaks resulted from explosions. NATO, EU & others fingered #Russia as likely culprit. Predictably, Moscow denied involvement. 1/4

Good reasons to suspect #Russia. Incapacitation of NS pipelines reminds Europe of Kremlin energy card and allows #Gazprom to claim force majeure to avoid penalties for non-delivery of gas. Pipeline attacks highlight European dependence on other underseas pipelines & cables. 2/4

Have seen this before. In 2009, #Gazprom had contract to buy pipeline gas from #Turkmenistan, but falling demand for gas made contract unprofitable. Then pipeline went boom, letting Gazprom claim force majeure to get out of contract. Turkmen said #Russia blew up pipeline. 3/4

#Russia and #Turkmenistan reached agreement 9 months later, and #Gazprom again began buying Turkmen gas...on basis of new contract with more flexible formula for price and specifying lower volume of gas. 4/4

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Steven Pifer

@steven_pifer

Oct 8

@mfa_russia

Some quick thoughts on #Putin’s nuclear threats:

Should take it seriously when leader of #Russia, a nuclear-armed state, makes nuclear threats. Ignore @mfa_russia’s Zakharova’s “what Russian nuclear threat?” line; she knows and we know what Putin implies by “all means." 1/6

#Putin often talks about nuclear weapons, even when not making threats. He likes to remind world that #Russia has lots of nukes. They constitute Russia’s strongest claim to great power status, and Putin and Kremlin seek to project image of Russia as great power. 2/6

#Putin does not want nuclear war. He wants #Ukraine and West to believe #Russia is ready for nuclear war to intimidate them and 1) get Kyiv to halt counter-offensives that make mockery of his supposed “annexation” of Ukrainian territory and 2) get West to stop arming Ukraine. 3/6

Read 6 tweets

Steven Pifer

@steven_pifer

Mar 27

@WSJ

Read @WSJ piece “How Bill Clinton Sealed #Ukraine’s Fate” by George Bogden with interest, in part as it quotes me or, to be accurate, my book, The Eagle and the Trident (published in 2017, not 2018).

Article misquotes book at one point and misses/glosses over 4 key points. 1/9

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1507496096150470661

Misquote: Bogden attributes to me the quote “The Clinton administration…could have provided greater military assistance, including some lethal military assistance…”

No. That was reference to Obama administration (see The Eagle and the Trident, p. 76). 2/9

Key point no. 1: Article does not mention that nuclear weapons Ukraine gave up were strategic warheads, designed and built to strike US. 1900 strategic nukes in Ukraine could have incinerated every American city with population over 50,000 ... 3 times over. 3/9

Read 9 tweets

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